Which Rust Belt State is Trump most likely to keep?

[President Johnson]

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin made Trump president (among others of course, but they were very important, surprising and very close). Which of these three states is he most likely to keep?

I say Wisconsin. I think Wisconsin will remain in Trump's column even if Democratic candidate wins the election by a modest margin (less than 5% of the popular vote, 290-330 electoral votes).

[TheSaint250]

Just curious, why did you pick WI? Many do, but I was just wondering your reasoning behind it.

[CivicParticipant]

Wisconsin, followed by Pennsylvania. Michigan is most viable to flip.

[Mr. Smith]

Just curious, why did you pick WI? Many do, but I was just wondering your reasoning behind it.

The Cheesehead Mafia run it now, and Walker destroyed an important part of what used to make the state progressive. He made the conditions too perfect for someone like Trump to come in.

[TheSaint250]

Just curious, why did you pick WI? Many do, but I was just wondering your reasoning behind it.

The Cheesehead Mafia run it now, and Walker destroyed an important part of what used to make the state progressive. He made the conditions too perfect for someone like Trump to come in.

Ah ok

[President Johnson]

Just curious, why did you pick WI? Many do, but I was just wondering your reasoning behind it.

It has the highest share of white voters out of them and is currently leaning heavily Republican at the state level. And Wisconsin has also not so much urban areas than Pennsylvania and Michigan.

[CivicParticipant]

Just curious, why did you pick WI? Many do, but I was just wondering your reasoning behind it.

It has the highest share of white voters out of them and is currently leaning heavily Republican at the state level. And Wisconsin has also not so much urban areas than Pennsylvania and Michigan.

I concur, Madison & Milwaukee can be easily offset.

[RINO Tom]

Wisconsin by far.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I'm actually going to say Pennsylvania. Turnout in Milwaukee was abysmal, and Clinton didn't visit Wisconsin at all. Sure, Milwaukee and Madison alone aren't quite enough, but if a Democrat can win back some of the Obama voters in SW Wisconsin and get better turnout in Milwaukee, Wisconsin can definitely flip. Clinton did compete in Pennsylvania, though, and got decent turnout in Philly. That still wasn't enough. While Trump could do better in the WOW counties, he also has room for growth in places like Chester county. Michigan is definitely going to be the hardest for him to hold, though.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

WI: Indiana

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Michigan is heavily underrated as a republican trending state. The population patterns in the state are inescapable. Detroit is falling, and rural areas aren't. I would guess a 3-4 point republican trend in 2020 if Trump is the nominee, less if Pence. He'll probably lose by enough that won't matter, but he could keep it while losing re-election.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm actually going to say Pennsylvania. Turnout in Milwaukee was abysmal, and Clinton didn't visit Wisconsin at all. Sure, Milwaukee and Madison alone aren't quite enough, but if a Democrat can win back some of the Obama voters in SW Wisconsin and get better turnout in Milwaukee, Wisconsin can definitely flip. Clinton did compete in Pennsylvania, though, and got decent turnout in Philly. That still wasn't enough. While Trump could do better in the WOW counties, he also has room for growth in places like Chester county. Michigan is definitely going to be the hardest for him to hold, though.

You conveniently forget that Clinton overlooked Erie and suffered badly in places like Scranton, which can still be fought over, and while Trump has room for growth in Chester, he also can alienate himself more.

[pbrower2a]

The last poll for Wisconsin showed Trump  disapproval in the low fifties. The last polls for Michigan and Pennsylvania showed disapproval for President Trump in the low sixties. It looks as if voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania are much less satisfied with Trump than those in Wisconsin.

At this stage I would give President Trump about a 75% chance of losing Wisconsin and about 95% chances of losing either Michigan or Pennsylvania. If Trump approvals are like that three years from now that goes to something like 95% and 99.99% chances of Trump losses. 

Trump needs a 9/11-like event to salvage his Presidency.

[Beet]

Admittedly there's some evidence for Wisconsin, but I'm still skeptical. Trump got nearly 3 million votes in Pennsylvania, beating G.W. Bush's record by 170,000. Meanwhile, he got 2,000 fewer votes than Romney in Wisconsin, falling 70,000 short of Bush 2004, who lost the state. Besides, Wisconsin seems like a more elastic state, as it's very rural. It swings dramatically back and forth, and Clinton was a terrible fit for the state. On the other hand, Pennsylvania has the Philly area holding the Democrats up, but the rest of the state is practically West Virginia. I still think a Midwesterner like Obama could take back Wisconsin for the Democrats.

[Mr. Smith]

Admittedly there's some evidence for Wisconsin, but I'm still skeptical. Trump got nearly 3 million votes in Pennsylvania, beating G.W. Bush's record by 170,000. Meanwhile, he got 2,000 fewer votes than Romney in Wisconsin, falling 70,000 short of Bush 2004, who lost the state. Besides, Wisconsin seems like a more elastic state, as it's very rural. Pennsylvania has the Philly area holding the Democrats up, but the rest of the state is practically West Virginia. I still think a Midwesterner like Obama could take back Wisconsin for the Democrats.

Scranton and Pittsburgh are no WV.

[Beet]

Admittedly there's some evidence for Wisconsin, but I'm still skeptical. Trump got nearly 3 million votes in Pennsylvania, beating G.W. Bush's record by 170,000. Meanwhile, he got 2,000 fewer votes than Romney in Wisconsin, falling 70,000 short of Bush 2004, who lost the state. Besides, Wisconsin seems like a more elastic state, as it's very rural. Pennsylvania has the Philly area holding the Democrats up, but the rest of the state is practically West Virginia. I still think a Midwesterner like Obama could take back Wisconsin for the Democrats.

Scranton and Pittsburgh are no WV.

The Democrats are having a WV-style collapse in Scranton. As for Pittsburgh, Allegheny county casts only 10% of the statewide vote.

[MT Treasurer]

We can't just assume that the #NeverTrump Republicans in WOW will come home for Trump in 2020, especially if someone like Biden wins the nomination. I also believe Baldwin is in a better position to win reelection than Casey and Stabenow.

[This is Eharding, guys]

I think people are underestimating PA a bit.

It's trended Republican 5-6 times in the last 7 Presidential elections.

Same. Also, its high voter turnout and lack of Sanders enthusiasm relative to the other two states both make it less likely to flip in 2020 if a Bernie-type candidate is nominated.

I won't vote in the poll, because the answer is highly sensitive to the 2020 Democratic nominee.

[RINO Tom]

We can't just assume that the #NeverTrump Republicans in WOW will come home for Trump in 2020, especially if someone like Biden wins the nomination. I also believe Baldwin is in a better position to win reelection than Casey and Stabenow.

1) Most "#NeverTrump Republicans" STAYED home for Trump in the WOW counties, as "#NeverTrump" usually refers to people who opposed his PRIMARY candidacy.

2) LOL at Joe Biden as some type of Democrat who's tailor-made for wealthy, suburban Republicans.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I'm actually going to say Pennsylvania. Turnout in Milwaukee was abysmal, and Clinton didn't visit Wisconsin at all. Sure, Milwaukee and Madison alone aren't quite enough, but if a Democrat can win back some of the Obama voters in SW Wisconsin and get better turnout in Milwaukee, Wisconsin can definitely flip. Clinton did compete in Pennsylvania, though, and got decent turnout in Philly. That still wasn't enough. While Trump could do better in the WOW counties, he also has room for growth in places like Chester county. Michigan is definitely going to be the hardest for him to hold, though.

You conveniently forget that Clinton overlooked Erie and suffered badly in places like Scranton, which can still be fought over, and while Trump has room for growth in Chester, he also can alienate himself more.

I'm not saying that Clinton didn't make any mistakes in PA or that it's not winnable for Democrats anymore, just that of the three, it's the most concerning to me. Obviously, though, it would be foolish for Democrats to assume that any of these states will just naturally flip back because Trump is unpopular. Democrats need to find a way to better resonate with voters in this part of the country.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Probably Wisconsin, narrowly followed by Pennsylvania. Definitely not Michigan.

[TML]

My vote goes to Wisconsin.

Bush lost WI by a fraction of a percent in both 2000 and 2004, and its state/local politics have been dominated by Republicans for much of this decade to date. Furthermore, it proved to be the "tipping point" state of 2016.

[Mr. Smith]

My vote goes to Wisconsin.

Bush lost WI by a fraction of a percent in both 2000 and 2004, and its state/local politics have been dominated by Republicans for much of this decade to date. Furthermore, it proved to be the "tipping point" state of 2016.

Actually, it was PA on that.

[NeederNodder]

Ohio easily.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

None, Gary Peters will help carry MI and Pa will vote Dem, and hope Dems win WI gov race