Alaska

[Coraxion]

Could Alaska go blue in 2020?

Zinke's, and, by extension, the Trump administration's, phone call to Alaska's Senators threatening to "punish" the state for Murkowski's vote could be a liability. In addition, Alaska is pretty elastic and if Begich decides to go for a rematch there could be reverse coattails. Alaska also trended Dem relative to the rest of the nation last year (it also trended significantly Dem from 2008-2012, but I'm taking that with a grain of salt because Palin was on the ballot).

What do you think?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Doubt it flips, but it definitely could vote Dem later on in the 2020s.

[maga2020]

As long as there is oil in Alaska, it will never go to the party that wants to destroy its already fragile economy.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Lol I remember a thread in the 2016 election board that said Alaska could go blue, and people were even asking how much Clinton could win it by.

Trump won it by 15 points.

[Lachi]

We will not win Alaska next time, maybe in 2028, or 2032.

[TheSaint250]

Alaska won't go Dem for awhile.  i still fail to understand why some say it will.

[Voice of low info America]

Only if Sarah Palin is the Republican nominee.

[Coraxion]

Alaska won't go Dem for awhile.  i still fail to understand why some say it will.

I gave several reasons why it could possibly go blue in 2020. If you missed that, there's no helping you.

[TheSaint250]

Alaska won't go Dem for awhile.  i still fail to understand why some say it will.

I gave several reasons why it could possibly go blue in 2020. If you missed that, there's no helping you.

But those aren't solid reasons. 

It's not confirmed that Zinke did that. There will most likely be a new Republican candidate for president in 2020.  Also, Begich won in 2008, but Obama didn't come close to winning it.

[Coraxion]

Alaska won't go Dem for awhile.  i still fail to understand why some say it will.

I gave several reasons why it could possibly go blue in 2020. If you missed that, there's no helping you.

But those aren't solid reasons. 

It's not confirmed that Zinke did that. There will most likely be a new Republican candidate for president in 2020.  Also, Begich won in 2008, but Obama didn't come close to winning it.

Right. I never claimed that it will definitely happen. It probably won't.

[GlobeSoc]

Alaska has a habit of having yuge 3rd party numbers. I believe that if the situation in America gets bad enough, those people delivering the high 3rd party % would combine with native american poll spamming to put dems over the top in Alaska, but it would be a fluke. The ingredients are not yet there for Alaska to be seriously contested as a consistent bellwether, but it will happen by the late 2020s if not earlier, and it has drifted from being impossible to implausible for democrats to win there.

[Kleine Scheiße]

It's reasonable that Alaska could be in play, especially if there's a strong enough third party or independent, but that's more of a New Hampshire "in play" than an Ohio "in play". I don't think there's a really serious shot, barring a blowout, until maybe 2028 at the earliest.