2020-McCaskill vs. Trump

[Bidenworth2020]

ok, so here is my prediction-

McCaskill/Kander-295
Trump/Pence-243

So it starts off with her winning her reelection by the same margin she did against Akin, except no'legitimate rape' ,just good campaignin'. Along with, Kander upsets Emmanuel Cleaver in the dem primary and becomes a congressman. In those two years, she passes a lot of legislation and so does Kander. Both are EXTREMELY popular, and speculation starts of the two running. At the Iowa caucuses, McCaskill wins in a upset, 33 for her, 31 for Harris, 21 for Warren, and 11 for Kander. After this, Kander drops out and is the speculative vp for McCaskill. At the convention, McCaskill is the clear winner and picks Kander. On election day, Trump's approval is at 43%.


What do you all think?

[Skunk]

Missouri electors can't vote for a McCaskill/Kander ticket.

[Kamala]

Also, McCaskill isn't winning Missouri.

[The Govanah Jake]

Also, McCaskill isn't winning Missouri.

Agreed. Missouri is gone for Democrats in 2020 unless there is a landslide

[Rjjr77]

ok, so here is my prediction-

McCaskill/Kander-295
Trump/Pence-243

So it starts off with her winning her reelection by the same margin she did against Akin, except no'legitimate rape' ,just good campaignin'. Along with, Kander upsets Emmanuel Cleaver in the dem primary and becomes a congressman. In those two years, she passes a lot of legislation and so does Kander. Both are EXTREMELY popular, and speculation starts of the two running. At the Iowa caucuses, McCaskill wins in a upset, 33 for her, 31 for Harris, 21 for Warren, and 11 for Kander. After this, Kander drops out and is the speculative vp for McCaskill. At the convention, McCaskill is the clear winner and picks Kander. On election day, Trump's approval is at 43%.


What do you all think?

McCaskill won't win Missouri, she's the closest thing to doa we've seen in years

[CivicParticipant]

McCaskill is in jeopardy of losing her Senate seat and is deeply unpopular.

[Coraxion]

McCaskill is in jeopardy of losing her Senate seat and is deeply unpopular.

Meh. Show me a net negative and then we'll talk.

[Rjjr77]

McCaskill is in jeopardy of losing her Senate seat and is deeply unpopular.

Meh. Show me a net negative and then we'll talk.

most PPP polls, including the one last summer.

[Cynthia]

McCaskill and Kander can't be on the same ticket.

[Lachi]

McCaskill is in jeopardy of losing her Senate seat and is deeply unpopular.

Meh. Show me a net negative and then we'll talk.

most PPP polls, including the one last summer.

That's laughable that you would trust a poll from that long ago.

The most recent polls, done in July, have her at 46/38 (+8)

https://morningconsult.com/july-2017-senator-rankings/

[MT Treasurer]

She'd get absolutely destroyed. Probably the 2016 map + Trump winning NV, MN, ME and maybe even CO.

McCaskill won't win Missouri, she's the closest thing to doa we've seen in years

Don't ruin their hopes. She has an entire fan club on this forum.

[Rjjr77]

McCaskill is in jeopardy of losing her Senate seat and is deeply unpopular.

Meh. Show me a net negative and then we'll talk.

most PPP polls, including the one last summer.

That's laughable that you would trust a poll from that long ago.

The most recent polls, done in July, have her at 46/38 (+8)

https://morningconsult.com/july-2017-senator-rankings/

its not laughable to discuss other polling. Morning Consult is a cool poll, one thats done every year, but even the +8 youre showing makes her one of the most disliked senators in the USA. Whats the breakdown of the favorables? hard soft? etc.

[I'm a prince to the grifters, I turn apostles to pimps]

You would think a poli sci professor at the University of Maryland would know that two candidates from the same state cannot be on the same ticket.

[Rjjr77]

You would think a poli sci professor at the University of Maryland would know that two candidates from the same state cannot be on the same ticket.

Technically they can, they just wont receive the electoral votes from that state.

[kph14]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be even more specific, only one person of the ticket could receive Missouri's electoral votes.

[Pollster]

Not going to comment on speculative candidates, but the poster who suggested Missouri is gone for Dems shouldn't jump to conclusions. Gallup's recent survey of all 50 states has Trump at only 49-46 approval in MO (which looks a lot like the Blunt v. Kander numbers) and a national candidate who fits the state (unlikely but possible if its Klobuchar, Kander or even Brown) mixed with a steady decrease in Trump's numbers by election day could put the state in play.

[The Govanah Jake]

Not going to comment on speculative candidates, but the poster who suggested Missouri is gone for Dems shouldn't jump to conclusions. Gallup's recent survey of all 50 states has Trump at only 49-46 approval in MO (which looks a lot like the Blunt v. Kander numbers) and a national candidate who fits the state (unlikely but possible if its Klobuchar, Kander or even Brown) mixed with a steady decrease in Trump's numbers by election day could put the state in play.

 State Approval Rating does not equal the outcome of that state though. Trump won many states in 2016 that he was personally unpopular in. Note that Trump won the state 59-36 which is a margin very difficult to overcome unless there is a landslide. Candidates like Brown or other Midwestern types would most likely do better then Clinton and they may poll well pre election but come election time if Trump isn't already down double digits and then goes on to lose by that much and lose the swing states and after some more solid republican states then I doubt it.

[cvparty]

the girl's not winning Missouri

[Kingpoleon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be even more specific, only one person of the ticket could receive Missouri's electoral votes.

Actually, if they got 265 electoral votes plus Missouri, then the electors would likely vote:
5: Claire McCaskill/Joe Biden
5: Joe Biden/Jason Kander

Or something like that.

[Gay Republican]

Even if we ignore the fact that she just doesn't come out as likable voters likely haven't forgotten her role in swinging the 2012 GOP Missouri Senate Primary.  Sure it helped her win the election but in the long run such political manuevers tend to be viewed very negatively.  This isn't 19freaking65 and she isn't Lyndon Johnson.  If she tried similar tactics in 2020 against Trump, well it's a repeat of 2016.

[Pollster]

Not going to comment on speculative candidates, but the poster who suggested Missouri is gone for Dems shouldn't jump to conclusions. Gallup's recent survey of all 50 states has Trump at only 49-46 approval in MO (which looks a lot like the Blunt v. Kander numbers) and a national candidate who fits the state (unlikely but possible if its Klobuchar, Kander or even Brown) mixed with a steady decrease in Trump's numbers by election day could put the state in play.

 State Approval Rating does not equal the outcome of that state though. Trump won many states in 2016 that he was personally unpopular in. Note that Trump won the state 59-36 which is a margin very difficult to overcome unless there is a landslide. Candidates like Brown or other Midwestern types would most likely do better then Clinton and they may poll well pre election but come election time if Trump isn't already down double digits and then goes on to lose by that much and lose the swing states and after some more solid republican states then I doubt it.

Personal unpopularity in this election didn't necessarily sway votes since both candidates were unpopular. His statewide approval numbers indicate that at least 46% of Missourians are at least persuadable to vote against him.