delaware?

[Virginian87]

why has delaware become virtually a solid democrat state (from the presidential level on down).

it used to be a swing, or even a lean-republican state.  what has changed?

i understand it does have a high black population.  but it had a high black population when the state was voting republican.

Two-thirds of Delaware's counties, Sussex and Kent (which contains the state capital, Dover) have been reliably Republican as of late, both of which went Democratic only once in the last six elections, in 1996.  New Castle County contains Delaware's largest city, Wilmington, the suburbs of Wilmington as well as some suburbs of Philadelphia, the DuPont chemical plant (a huge employer), and the college town of Newark (home of the University of Delaware).  These suburbs, like many of the surburbs of Philadelphia, are trending Democratic, adding to the already-Democratic-leaning town of Newark.  With the greatest concentration of population, New Castle County simply outvotes Sussex and Kent counties in state, congressional, and presidential elections. 

Hope that helped...

[Virginian87]

is representative (and former governor) castle immune to the democrat trend in delaware?  i know he is a moderate, but so was william roth and look at what happened to him.

Who knows?  He is pretty moderate.  He co-sposored a bill to overturn the ban on stem-cell research.

[Virginian87]

As for Walter's questions, Delaware isn't really a solid Dem state. Of the states in the tri-state area (PA, NJ, DE) I hardly ever pay attention to what is going on in the DE but here's my take on it.

Both U.S. Senators, as we all know, are Dems but I wouldn't say that the state is solid Dem. The House of Representatives seat at-Large, as noted before, is held by Republican Mike Castle. He's not going anywhere. The State Legislature is split. The GOP controls the House while the Dems have the Senate.

Of course it's not a really safe state for Democrats, did you read my earlier post about the counties?  In three of the last four presidential elections, Republicans won two-thirds of Delaware's counties.  Democrats only needed to win New Castle County handiliy to win.  A moderate Republican could fare well here, both for state or national office. 

[Virginian87]

I just traveled through Delaware on my way back from Ocean City a few weeks ago, and new housing developments are popping up all over the central and southern part of the state. Typical logic says this heavily favors Republicans, but if these people are moving from the DC or Philly area then it probably keeps the state about even.

Traveling down to Ocean City, Maryland is interesting....it seems like most of the people from the DC area favor Delaware and exit off Rt 50 towards Rehoboth, while most people from the Baltimore area go to Ocean City. I think the "liberals" prefer Delaware, which would lead me to believe it might not be just Republicans moving into exurban Delaware.

Not everybody from the DC area is liberal...

I've never been to Rehoboth, but it must be better than Ocean City.  That place is a dump.

[Virginian87]

The Route 13-Route 1-Route 113 corridor is getting very built up very fast. I don't know who's moving there, I wouldn't presume to guess either, but it's people with the money for a massive 300K+ cookie cutter suburban house.

I don't think many of those new coastal houses are owned by Delaware residents; they are probably mostly seasonal homes for out-of-staters.

[Virginian87]

why has delaware become virtually a solid democrat state (from the presidential level on down).

New Castle (the northern county with Wilmington) has about 63% of the population, down from 70% in 1970.  In 1790, the 3 counties each had about 20,000 people.  Kent (the middle county) only doubled in population between 1790 and 1950, while Sussex County had trebled, but New Castle increased by more than 10 times.

Between 1950 and 1980 Kent caught up with Sussex, but since then Sussex has surged ahead.  I assume Kent growth is outer suburbs of Wilmington and Philadelphia, while Sussex is recreation/retirement based on Rehobeth Beach, which has been opened up by completion of the cross-Chesapeake bridge at Annapolis, which make it as close to Baltimore and Washington as it is to Philadelphia.  But New Castle has been outpacing the national growth rate, so its dominance has only been slowly coming down.

There appears to be significant divergence between the north and south.  In 1996-2004 New Castle has been steady at just over 20% Democrat margin, while Sussex has gone from a 2% Democrat majority to a 22% Republican majority.  Overall, Delaware may be trending back toward the Republicans.

If Kent County keeps developing around Dover and closer into Wilmington near New Castle, then those Republican gains in Sussex might be canceled out.