delaware?

[WalterMitty]

why has delaware become virtually a solid democrat state (from the presidential level on down).

it used to be a swing, or even a lean-republican state.  what has changed?

i understand it does have a high black population.  but it had a high black population when the state was voting republican.

[Virginian87]

why has delaware become virtually a solid democrat state (from the presidential level on down).

it used to be a swing, or even a lean-republican state.  what has changed?

i understand it does have a high black population.  but it had a high black population when the state was voting republican.

Two-thirds of Delaware's counties, Sussex and Kent (which contains the state capital, Dover) have been reliably Republican as of late, both of which went Democratic only once in the last six elections, in 1996.  New Castle County contains Delaware's largest city, Wilmington, the suburbs of Wilmington as well as some suburbs of Philadelphia, the DuPont chemical plant (a huge employer), and the college town of Newark (home of the University of Delaware).  These suburbs, like many of the surburbs of Philadelphia, are trending Democratic, adding to the already-Democratic-leaning town of Newark.  With the greatest concentration of population, New Castle County simply outvotes Sussex and Kent counties in state, congressional, and presidential elections. 

Hope that helped...

[A18]

Yes, cities are horribly oppressive entities by their nature.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes, cities are horribly oppressive entities by their nature.

LOL

[WalterMitty]

is representative (and former governor) castle immune to the democrat trend in delaware?  i know he is a moderate, but so was william roth and look at what happened to him.

[Virginian87]

is representative (and former governor) castle immune to the democrat trend in delaware?  i know he is a moderate, but so was william roth and look at what happened to him.

Who knows?  He is pretty moderate.  He co-sposored a bill to overturn the ban on stem-cell research.

[TeePee4Prez]

why has delaware become virtually a solid democrat state (from the presidential level on down).

it used to be a swing, or even a lean-republican state.  what has changed?

i understand it does have a high black population.  but it had a high black population when the state was voting republican.

Two-thirds of Delaware's counties, Sussex and Kent (which contains the state capital, Dover) have been reliably Republican as of late, both of which went Democratic only once in the last six elections, in 1996.  New Castle County contains Delaware's largest city, Wilmington, the suburbs of Wilmington as well as some suburbs of Philadelphia, the DuPont chemical plant (a huge employer), and the college town of Newark (home of the University of Delaware).  These suburbs, like many of the surburbs of Philadelphia, are trending Democratic, adding to the already-Democratic-leaning town of Newark.  With the greatest concentration of population, New Castle County simply outvotes Sussex and Kent counties in state, congressional, and presidential elections. 

Hope that helped...

I have relatives in Northern Delaware that live right over the PA border, first exit off I-95 (Naamans Road).  Yep, you got it right, it's suburban Philly.  Specter and Castle-like Republicans could win in Delaware, but they are few and far between anymore.  If the 5 counties of Southeastern PA became a state, only Arlen Specter could win as a Republican, however Chaka Fattah would probably lose as well.  My picks for a theoretical seat would be Joe Hoeffel and Marjorie Margoles-Mezvinsky.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Delawhere?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Delawhere?

Oh, sure, just because it doesn't have a fancy British name like Sheepfordshire or Poshchester or St. Bufford's Cross, it doesn't matter?

Arrogant Brits.

[Keystone Phil]

My picks for a theoretical seat would be Joe Hoeffel and Marjorie Margoles-Mezvinsky.

Hoeffel lives in Montco and Mezvinsky lived out there, too, I believe. How do they get elected to this theoretical seat? Are you including Montco in this Democratic Fantasy Land district?

As for Walter's questions, Delaware isn't really a solid Dem state. Of the states in the tri-state area (PA, NJ, DE) I hardly ever pay attention to what is going on in the DE but here's my take on it.

Governor Ruth Ann Minner was elected in 2000 with 60% of the vote, however, in 2004, she won with only 51%. The GOP might actually be able to pick up the state in the 2008 Gubernatorial race. Other statewide offices:

Lt. Gov (I am including this office because I don't think the Gov. and Lt. Gov. run as a ticket in Delaware) - Dem
State Insurance commissioner - Dem
Attorney General - GOP
State Treasurer - Dem
State Auditor - GOP

Both U.S. Senators, as we all know, are Dems but I wouldn't say that the state is solid Dem. The House of Representatives seat at-Large, as noted before, is held by Republican Mike Castle. He's not going anywhere. The State Legislature is split. The GOP controls the House while the Dems have the Senate.

The last Presidential election was actually pretty close in the state. Kerry won 53% to Bush's 46%. That's a good improvement since Bush received 42% in 2000 to Gore's 55%. The state will still be very difficult for a Republican to win on the national level, though. John McCain would probably flip the state but his chances of becoming the nominee are low, we won't discuss such scenarios as if they are realistic.

[Virginian87]

As for Walter's questions, Delaware isn't really a solid Dem state. Of the states in the tri-state area (PA, NJ, DE) I hardly ever pay attention to what is going on in the DE but here's my take on it.

Both U.S. Senators, as we all know, are Dems but I wouldn't say that the state is solid Dem. The House of Representatives seat at-Large, as noted before, is held by Republican Mike Castle. He's not going anywhere. The State Legislature is split. The GOP controls the House while the Dems have the Senate.

Of course it's not a really safe state for Democrats, did you read my earlier post about the counties?  In three of the last four presidential elections, Republicans won two-thirds of Delaware's counties.  Democrats only needed to win New Castle County handiliy to win.  A moderate Republican could fare well here, both for state or national office. 

[Keystone Phil]

Of course it's not a really safe state for Democrats, did you read my earlier post about the counties? 

It was a response to what Walter said.

why has delaware become virtually a solid democrat state (from the presidential level on down).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, sure, just because it doesn't have a fancy British name like Sheepfordshire or Poshchester or St. Bufford's Cross, it doesn't matter?

How about Pity Me?

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Delaware is a cool name actually

[PBrunsel]

Man, the important state of Deleware is out of the GOP reach.

[danwxman]

I just traveled through Delaware on my way back from Ocean City a few weeks ago, and new housing developments are popping up all over the central and southern part of the state. Typical logic says this heavily favors Republicans, but if these people are moving from the DC or Philly area then it probably keeps the state about even.

Traveling down to Ocean City, Maryland is interesting....it seems like most of the people from the DC area favor Delaware and exit off Rt 50 towards Rehoboth, while most people from the Baltimore area go to Ocean City. I think the "liberals" prefer Delaware, which would lead me to believe it might not be just Republicans moving into exurban Delaware.

[Virginian87]

I just traveled through Delaware on my way back from Ocean City a few weeks ago, and new housing developments are popping up all over the central and southern part of the state. Typical logic says this heavily favors Republicans, but if these people are moving from the DC or Philly area then it probably keeps the state about even.

Traveling down to Ocean City, Maryland is interesting....it seems like most of the people from the DC area favor Delaware and exit off Rt 50 towards Rehoboth, while most people from the Baltimore area go to Ocean City. I think the "liberals" prefer Delaware, which would lead me to believe it might not be just Republicans moving into exurban Delaware.

Not everybody from the DC area is liberal...

I've never been to Rehoboth, but it must be better than Ocean City.  That place is a dump.

[danwxman]

I just traveled through Delaware on my way back from Ocean City a few weeks ago, and new housing developments are popping up all over the central and southern part of the state. Typical logic says this heavily favors Republicans, but if these people are moving from the DC or Philly area then it probably keeps the state about even.

Traveling down to Ocean City, Maryland is interesting....it seems like most of the people from the DC area favor Delaware and exit off Rt 50 towards Rehoboth, while most people from the Baltimore area go to Ocean City. I think the "liberals" prefer Delaware, which would lead me to believe it might not be just Republicans moving into exurban Delaware.

Not everybody from the DC area is liberal...

I've never been to Rehoboth, but it must be better than Ocean City.  That place is a dump.

I am assuming all of the cars with DC license plates are driven by liberals, including the ones from Virginia and Maryland with Kerry and/or liberal bumper stickers.

[Jake]

The Route 13-Route 1-Route 113 corridor is getting very built up very fast. I don't know who's moving there, I wouldn't presume to guess either, but it's people with the money for a massive 300K+ cookie cutter suburban house.

[Virginian87]

The Route 13-Route 1-Route 113 corridor is getting very built up very fast. I don't know who's moving there, I wouldn't presume to guess either, but it's people with the money for a massive 300K+ cookie cutter suburban house.

I don't think many of those new coastal houses are owned by Delaware residents; they are probably mostly seasonal homes for out-of-staters.

[jimrtex]

why has delaware become virtually a solid democrat state (from the presidential level on down).

New Castle (the northern county with Wilmington) has about 63% of the population, down from 70% in 1970.  In 1790, the 3 counties each had about 20,000 people.  Kent (the middle county) only doubled in population between 1790 and 1950, while Sussex County had trebled, but New Castle increased by more than 10 times.

Between 1950 and 1980 Kent caught up with Sussex, but since then Sussex has surged ahead.  I assume Kent growth is outer suburbs of Wilmington and Philadelphia, while Sussex is recreation/retirement based on Rehobeth Beach, which has been opened up by completion of the cross-Chesapeake bridge at Annapolis, which make it as close to Baltimore and Washington as it is to Philadelphia.  But New Castle has been outpacing the national growth rate, so its dominance has only been slowly coming down.

There appears to be significant divergence between the north and south.  In 1996-2004 New Castle has been steady at just over 20% Democrat margin, while Sussex has gone from a 2% Democrat majority to a 22% Republican majority.  Overall, Delaware may be trending back toward the Republicans.

[Virginian87]

why has delaware become virtually a solid democrat state (from the presidential level on down).

New Castle (the northern county with Wilmington) has about 63% of the population, down from 70% in 1970.  In 1790, the 3 counties each had about 20,000 people.  Kent (the middle county) only doubled in population between 1790 and 1950, while Sussex County had trebled, but New Castle increased by more than 10 times.

Between 1950 and 1980 Kent caught up with Sussex, but since then Sussex has surged ahead.  I assume Kent growth is outer suburbs of Wilmington and Philadelphia, while Sussex is recreation/retirement based on Rehobeth Beach, which has been opened up by completion of the cross-Chesapeake bridge at Annapolis, which make it as close to Baltimore and Washington as it is to Philadelphia.  But New Castle has been outpacing the national growth rate, so its dominance has only been slowly coming down.

There appears to be significant divergence between the north and south.  In 1996-2004 New Castle has been steady at just over 20% Democrat margin, while Sussex has gone from a 2% Democrat majority to a 22% Republican majority.  Overall, Delaware may be trending back toward the Republicans.

If Kent County keeps developing around Dover and closer into Wilmington near New Castle, then those Republican gains in Sussex might be canceled out.

[danwxman]

The Route 13-Route 1-Route 113 corridor is getting very built up very fast. I don't know who's moving there, I wouldn't presume to guess either, but it's people with the money for a massive 300K+ cookie cutter suburban house.

Well, I don't know if it's all $300,000 housing. I saw a lot of cookie-cutter really tiny suburban houses and trailer parks off Rt 1. I think you have a lot of lower-middle class retirees moving down to Delaware as well.

[Kevin]

My parent's own a house in Sussex DE and, Rehoboth has a large gay community which I assume is solidly Democratic.