MI-MIRS: Stabenow +8 over Kid Rock

[heatcharger]

Link (you need a subscription, but it is a real pollster -- has a C on 538)

Stabenow 50%
Kid Rock 42%

[heatcharger]

Now this seems more realistic, but I would like to see more polls even if they're usually crap considering it's Michigan.

[Matty]

How can this board not consider traflagar a real pollster?

I'm sorry but that is just pure hackery. It was very accurate in the state in 2016.

[Holmes]

Yaaaaay Michigan polling from sh**t firms 14 months out. My favorite!

Let's get some C-list polls from Nevada, Alaska and Hawaii too. Internals are a plus.

[The Other Castro]

How can this board not consider traflagar a real pollster?

I'm sorry but that is just pure hackery. It was very accurate in the state in 2016.

Who said it's not a real pollster?

[TheSaint250]

Now I'm just gonna join in with everyone else on the trafalgar poll and call this fake news since there's no way stabenow could lose to kid rock

Just kidding. This is probably more realistic but still kinda close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Me feel better.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ultimately undecideds will stick with the "devil they know". If it still looks close a year from now then we can talk.

[Holmes]

Now I'm just gonna join in with everyone else on the trafalgar poll and call this fake news since there's no way stabenow could lose to kid rock

Just kidding. This is probably more realistic but still kinda close.

It is kind of close, but Michigan always teases Republicans in their polls a year or so out. Terri Lynn Land was very competitive and was even leading in some polls around this time in 2013.

[Coraxion]

How can this board not consider traflagar a real pollster?

I'm sorry but that is just pure hackery. It was very accurate in the state in 2016.

But muh 2016 accuracy! lol

[Person Man]

I hope its eventually more than this but this is promising. Has a party headed by a 35%er consolidated power? Shhhesshh...

[TheSaint250]

Now I'm just gonna join in with everyone else on the trafalgar poll and call this fake news since there's no way stabenow could lose to kid rock

Just kidding. This is probably more realistic but still kinda close.

It is kind of close, but Michigan always teases Republicans in their polls a year or so out. Terri Lynn Land was very competitive and was even leading in some polls around this time in 2013.

Ah

[UncleSam]

Not impossible Stabenow could win by 8, but I think it'll be closer when all is said and done.

Glad to see people are at least TRYING to poll Michigan now either way, there were embarrassingly few polls from the state in 2016

[Rjjr77]

I have never heard of target-insyght polling... are they a very localized polling company?

[Xing]

OMG! This new poll totally changes everything!

Likely R -> Titanium D

But in all seriousness, now do people see why early polls are meaningless?

[Mike Thick]

OMG! This new poll totally changes everything!

Likely R -> Titanium D

But in all seriousness, now do people see why early polls are meaningless?

This. Especially in Michigan.

[publicunofficial]

Michigan polls are probably going to be even more messy than usual this cycle, as every company fiddles with their methodology.

[Young Conservative]

Did they poll any of the other candidates?

[heatcharger]

They tweeted the GOP primary part of their poll as well:

Kid Rock 33%
James 16%
Young 14%
Epstein 8%

FWIW, they had a 48-48 tie for Clinton and Trump in their last Michigan poll before the election, which was more accurate than Trafalgar.

[PragmaticPopulist]

They tweeted the GOP primary part of their poll as well:

Kid Rock 33%
James 16%
Young 14%
Epstein 8%

FWIW, they had a 48-48 tie for Clinton and Trump in their last Michigan poll before the election, which was more accurate than Trafalgar.

This makes me feel a bit better. Still, Stabenow only +8 seems too close for comfort. Though it's a year and a half away, so would do polls right now show us?

Reminder to all of us to not trust any other Michigan poll aside from MI-MIRS unless the other polls are showing similar results.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They tweeted the GOP primary part of their poll as well:

Kid Rock 33%
James 16%
Young 14%
Epstein 8%

FWIW, they had a 48-48 tie for Clinton and Trump in their last Michigan poll before the election, which was more accurate than Trafalgar.

This makes me feel a bit better. Still, Stabenow only +8 seems too close for comfort. Though it's a year and a half away, so would do polls right now show us?

Reminder to all of us to not trust any other Michigan poll aside from MI-MIRS unless the other polls are showing similar results.

Yes, you should only trust polls where the Democrat is leading because just like Hillary, Stabenow can't lose.

[DrScholl]

Debbie is fierce and her name describes what she will do to her opponents if they come at her wrong. Mess with her and she will STAB YOU NOW!

2018 is not 2016, Debbie Stabenow is not Hillary Clinton and Republicans are not going to be in that great of a position to make gains in states that Trump barely carried (Remember how Robin Carnahan was supposed to win in Missouri because Obama got close?)

[PragmaticPopulist]

They tweeted the GOP primary part of their poll as well:

Kid Rock 33%
James 16%
Young 14%
Epstein 8%

FWIW, they had a 48-48 tie for Clinton and Trump in their last Michigan poll before the election, which was more accurate than Trafalgar.

This makes me feel a bit better. Still, Stabenow only +8 seems too close for comfort. Though it's a year and a half away, so would do polls right now show us?

Reminder to all of us to not trust any other Michigan poll aside from MI-MIRS unless the other polls are showing similar results.

Yes, you should only trust polls where the Democrat is leading because just like Hillary, Stabenow can't lose.

I was sort of kidding anyway, but what I meant was that since nearly every poll except MI-MIRS had Clinton winning by high single digits or more, we should only trust MI-MIRS for Michigan polls, since its last poll before the election showed a tie.

[_]

Ok this seems a bit realistic.

Wait Trafalgar has it Rock +3?

Alright, now this is before anything's really started either way, but i'm moving this to Lean D, Stabenow still has an advantage but I think Rock isn't a joke anymore.