2020 maps: Trump as an independent

[kyc0705]

One thing that's been noticed lately is how Trump has been untethering himself from the Republican establishment in increasingly obvious ways. What if we followed this to its logical extreme, which would be him leaving the GOP and governing as an independent? What does 2020 look like? Who do the two major parties run against him, and what does the map look like?

[The Govanah Jake]

It always leads to Jeb!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

[The Govanah Jake]

Though seriously if Trump runs independently the vote splitting would be brutal

Democratic Party - Senator Sherrod Brown/Governor Steve Bullock - 414  42.68%

Republican Party - Governor John Kasich/Senator Ben Sasse - 70 29.12%

Independent - President Donald Trump/Vice President Mike Pence - 54 26.49%

If say Trump just decides to Run independent or is cheated out of the nomination some how and the Republicans nominate Moderate Hero John Kasich instead i could see his core followers sticking to him and most republican votes in the south or Appalachia go to the Independent Trump ticket.  The Democrats nominate someone sane and it is 1912 all over again.

[TheSaint250]

It's so interesting to think about this.

The Republican Party nominee would most definitely lose, but we would, for the first time since 1968, see a third party candidate win at least one state in the electoral college.

[DPKdebator]

Though seriously if Trump runs independently the vote splitting would be brutal

Democratic Party - Senator Sherrod Brown/Governor Steve Bullock - 414  42.68%

Republican Party - Governor John Kasich/Senator Ben Sasse - 70 29.12%

Independent - President Donald Trump/Vice President Mike Pence - 54 26.49%

If say Trump just decides to Run independent or is cheated out of the nomination some how and the Republicans nominate Moderate Hero John Kasich instead i could see his core followers sticking to him and most republican votes in the south or Appalachia go to the Independent Trump ticket.  The Democrats nominate someone sane and it is 1912 all over again.

In the absolutely farfetched scenario that an independent Trump somehow wins, here's what the EV map would probably look like:

280 EVs for Trump, 235 for the Democrat, and 23 for the Republican. I don't even know how this would happen, unless most Trump voters don't defect and there's a significant faction of independents and Democrats who would consider voting for an independent, non-Republican Trump. The GOP would have to nominate someone cataclysmically unpopular and the Dems would have to nominate someone just as bad, if not worse than the GOP candidate.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Though seriously if Trump runs independently the vote splitting would be brutal

Democratic Party - Senator Sherrod Brown/Governor Steve Bullock - 414  42.68%

Republican Party - Governor John Kasich/Senator Ben Sasse - 70 29.12%

Independent - President Donald Trump/Vice President Mike Pence - 54 26.49%

If say Trump just decides to Run independent or is cheated out of the nomination some how and the Republicans nominate Moderate Hero John Kasich instead i could see his core followers sticking to him and most republican votes in the south or Appalachia go to the Independent Trump ticket.  The Democrats nominate someone sane and it is 1912 all over again.

In the absolutely farfetched scenario that an independent Trump somehow wins, here's what the EV map would probably look like:

280 EVs for Trump, 235 for the Democrat, and 23 for the Republican. I don't even know how this would happen, unless most Trump voters don't defect and there's a significant faction of independents and Democrats who would consider voting for an independent, non-Republican Trump. The GOP would have to nominate someone cataclysmically unpopular and the Dems would have to nominate someone just as bad, if not worse than the GOP candidate.

This is very unlikely indeed. if Trump runs third party, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire, PA and especially New Jersey () are all definitely going D if the D nominee is even semi competent.

[Mr. Smith]

Rep. Keith Ellison/Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich/Sen. Ben Sasse
President Donald Trump/Sheriff David Clarke

Although any left-of-Booker/Hillary Democrat should have a good chance in this case.But yeah, I set the numbers to give roughly 1980 margins in reverse, not that much of a leap to get a 5 point drop should Trump's number stay in the low 40's/high 30's.

[NewYorkExpress]

Rep. Keith Ellison/Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich/Sen. Ben Sasse
President Donald Trump/Sheriff David Clarke

Although any left-of-Booker/Hillary Democrat should have a good chance in this case.But yeah, I set the numbers to give roughly 1980 margins in reverse, not that much of a leap to get a 5 point drop should Trump's number stay in the low 40's/high 30's.

Even if Trump became an Independent, there's no reason for him to drop Pence from the ticket.

[Mr. Smith]

Rep. Keith Ellison/Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich/Sen. Ben Sasse
President Donald Trump/Sheriff David Clarke

Although any left-of-Booker/Hillary Democrat should have a good chance in this case.But yeah, I set the numbers to give roughly 1980 margins in reverse, not that much of a leap to get a 5 point drop should Trump's number stay in the low 40's/high 30's.

Even if Trump became an Independent, there's no reason for him to drop Pence from the ticket.

I figured Pence dropped of his own volition in such a case, and what use is there to stick with Trump if he's unpopular enough to be forced to go Indy? He does consider Cheney a role model after all.

[TheSaint250]

Rep. Keith Ellison/Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich/Sen. Ben Sasse
President Donald Trump/Sheriff David Clarke

Although any left-of-Booker/Hillary Democrat should have a good chance in this case.But yeah, I set the numbers to give roughly 1980 margins in reverse, not that much of a leap to get a 5 point drop should Trump's number stay in the low 40's/high 30's.

Even if Trump became an Independent, there's no reason for him to drop Pence from the ticket.

I figured Pence dropped of his own volition in such a case, and what use is there to stick with Trump if he's unpopular enough to be forced to go Indy? He does consider Cheney a role model after all.

Yeah pence was kind of a concession to conservatives. I don't think he'd leave the party for Trump.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I'd guess this

Warren: 50%, 501
Pence: 25%, 21
Trump: 23%, 16

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Trump keeps most of the GOP base together, enough to scrape by in all of the states he won by large margins last year. But splitting the vote with the Republican nominee allows the Democrats to win back MI, WI, PA, OH, and FL, as well as allowing them to pick up AZ, NC, GA, and TX. Trump is narrowly edged out in conservative states where he was beaten by large margins in the 2016 primaries.

National vote is something like 49% Democrat, 37% Trump and 14% GOP (the GOP vote is much heavier in ID, KS, WY, and UT than in the rest of the country).

[TheSaint250]

This map was made based on pre-2016 polling of a possible race of Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, and Donald Trump.  The lighter green represents Trump winning ≥20% and <30% of the vote in the poll, and the darker green represents Trump winning ≥30% and <40%.

The results are as follows:

Florida:

Hillary Clinton: 39%
Jeb Bush: 29%
Donald Trump: 27%

Iowa:

Hillary Clinton: 38%
Donald Trump: 27%
Jeb Bush: 26%

Minnesota:

Hillary Clinton: 41%
Jeb Bush: 26%
Donald Trump: 25%

Missouri:

Hillary Clinton: 34%
Donald Trump: 30%
Jeb Bush: 29%

New Hampshire:

Hillary Clinton: 43%
Donald Trump: 28%
Jeb Bush: 22%

North Carolina:

Hillary Clinton: 38%
Jeb Bush: 28%
Donald Trump 27%

Ohio:

Hillary Clinton: 37%
Jeb Bush: 27%
Donald Trump: 23%

Pennsylvania:

Hillary Clinton: 37%
Jeb Bush: 29%
Donald Trump: 24%

South Carolina:

Hillary Clinton: 34%
Donald Trump: 33%
Jeb Bush: 25%

Virginia:

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Donald Trump: 27%
Jeb Bush: 24%



In five out of the ten polled states, Trump came in second place, with South Carolina being his closest to a victory.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

In five out of the ten polled states, Trump came in second place, with South Carolina being his closest to a victory.

That's some good info to have. Thanks!

One thing to keep in mind is ballot access. Trump relied on the Republican Party apparatus for ballot access. Given the incompetency displayed, I wouldn't be shocked if he wasn't on the ballot in some states. Granted it may be easier to form third parties in some states as well as previously existing friendly parties (American Independent in CA, for example), but I would be shocked if he was on the ballot in all 50 states.

I'll have to take a look at third party formation and independent ballot access laws by state before making a map. I wouldn't be shocked if the resulting map greatly resembled 1912 down to Utah voting for the Republican (let's say it's Kasich).

[Jeppe]

[TheSaint250]

In five out of the ten polled states, Trump came in second place, with South Carolina being his closest to a victory.

That's some good info to have. Thanks!

No problem

One thing to keep in mind is ballot access. Trump relied on the Republican Party apparatus for ballot access. Given the incompetency displayed, I wouldn't be shocked if he wasn't on the ballot in some states. Granted it may be easier to form third parties in some states as well as previously existing friendly parties (American Independent in CA, for example), but I would be shocked if he was on the ballot in all 50 states.

I'll have to take a look at third party formation and independent ballot access laws by state before making a map. I wouldn't be shocked if the resulting map greatly resembled 1912 down to Utah voting for the Republican (let's say it's Kasich).

I'd say he makes it on almost every or on every ballot.  Obviously he would face a lot of challenges in some states, but his committed supporters could get him on the ballot by collecting tons of signatures.  He'd still have a lot of supporters.