Lou Barletta Running for PA Senate

[KingSweden]

Great news! Barletta is exactly the person who can retain Trump's monster vote surge in PA, an immigration hardiner.

His proven record on immigration as mayor of Hazleton will bring the blue collar Biden democrat from Northeast PA in full force to vote for him against out of touch Casey.

As of now, how would you rate this particular race? Safe R, Likely R, Lean R, Tilt R, Tossup, Tilt D, Lean D, Likely D, Safe D, or something else?

Likely R, Crimedelphia isn't turning out for uninspiring Casey.

The monster vote of Western, Central and especially Northeastern PA is, they want an extra body in the Senate too keep illegals out of the country.

Wow, what nuanced, intelligent analysis! Thank you for your tremendous contributions to election discussions on this forum

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still Lean D. Trump winning by 45,000 over the worst democratic candidate since Walter Mondale does not make the state GOP Leaning.

[DrScholl]

Let's not even pretend like Barletta is a star recruit, because he's only a B-List recruit at best and I doubt anyone was banging down his door to run. Casey is no pushover and with Republicans in control of everything, 2018 is not going to be a great year for them to gain outside of super red states.

[edtorres04]

Barletta is certainly a B candidate, but I don't think there are any A candidates in PA.

Tom Ridge is old.  Schwieker really has no name ID anymore and no ambition.  Meehan/Gerlach couldn't get through a primary.  I don't see any A listers.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Still Lean D. Trump winning by 45,000 over the worst democratic candidate since Walter Mondale does not make the state GOP Leaning.

Worse than Dukakis?

[KingSweden]

Barletta is certainly a B candidate, but I don't think there are any A candidates in PA.

Tom Ridge is old.  Schwieker really has no name ID anymore and no ambition.  Meehan/Gerlach couldn't get through a primary.  I don't see any A listers.

Man, Schweiker. There's a name I haven't heard in a while. If we're thinking of the same guy he must be really ancient. Older than Ridge, right?

[Heisenberg]

Barletta is certainly a B candidate, but I don't think there are any A candidates in PA.

Tom Ridge is old.  Schwieker really has no name ID anymore and no ambition.  Meehan/Gerlach couldn't get through a primary.  I don't see any A listers.

Man, Schweiker. There's a name I haven't heard in a while. If we're thinking of the same guy he must be really ancient. Older than Ridge, right?

Younger than Ridge (his Lt. Gov who succeeded him after joining the GWB admin). Mark Schwieker is the man. Former Senator Richard Schweikert passed away two years ago. And Tom Ridge would not at all win a primary these days because he is pro-choice, #NeverTrump, etc. I don't think the Trumpist base would like him at all. I'd say Barletta is definitely the best recruit Republicans could land, but still Lean D for now.

[KingSweden]

Barletta is certainly a B candidate, but I don't think there are any A candidates in PA.

Tom Ridge is old.  Schwieker really has no name ID anymore and no ambition.  Meehan/Gerlach couldn't get through a primary.  I don't see any A listers.

Man, Schweiker. There's a name I haven't heard in a while. If we're thinking of the same guy he must be really ancient. Older than Ridge, right?

Younger than Ridge (his Lt. Gov who succeeded him after joining the GWB admin). Mark Schwieker is the man. Former Senator Richard Schweikert passed away two years ago. And Tom Ridge would not at all win a primary these days because he is pro-choice, #NeverTrump, etc. I don't think the Trumpist base would like him at all. I'd say Barletta is definitely the best recruit Republicans could land, but still Lean D for now.

Oh THAT Schweiker

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

He might just win........Casey is a do-nothing.  Always has been.

[Free Bird]

Definitely at least made the race not a yawner anymore.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I don't see this really changing  the dynamics of the race. Likely D. Trump benefited in PA because he was running against the worst possible fit for the state since Dukakis. Casey should be able to keep the margins down in Western PA while running on-par with other Democrats in the Philly Metro and Pittsburgh.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lean D. He may be a Trumpite but he doesn't have the Donald's blue-collar or city appeal. Expecting a 2012 repeat in terms of margins.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Great news! Barletta is exactly the person who can retain Trump's monster vote surge in PA, an immigration hardiner.

His proven record on immigration as mayor of Hazleton will bring the blue collar Biden democrat from Northeast PA in full force to vote for him against out of touch Casey.

I needed a good laugh today.

[KingSweden]

Bear in mind Casey outperformed Obama '12 and Wolf '14 in Barletta's district, FWIW

[Heisenberg]

Bear in mind Casey outperformed Obama '12 and Wolf '14 in Barletta's district, FWIW

I'm aware. Casey is a good fit for that area, but so is Barletta, and he'll the best candidate to try and neutralize it, which is necessary to win. I still have Casey as the favorite, but Barletta definitely has a path, albeit a narrow one with little room for error.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bear in mind Casey outperformed Obama '12 and Wolf '14 in Barletta's district, FWIW

I'm aware. Casey is a good fit for that area, but so is Barletta, and he'll the best candidate to try and neutralize it, which is necessary to win. I still have Casey as the favorite, but Barletta definitely has a path, albeit a narrow one with little room for error.

No he doesn't and he's not even an A-list recruit, tbh.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Likely R, Crimedelphia isn't turning out for uninspiring Casey.

When you're scared of black people

[KingSweden]

Bear in mind Casey outperformed Obama '12 and Wolf '14 in Barletta's district, FWIW

I'm aware. Casey is a good fit for that area, but so is Barletta, and he'll the best candidate to try and neutralize it, which is necessary to win. I still have Casey as the favorite, but Barletta definitely has a path, albeit a narrow one with little room for error.

My read too. They both neutralize each other's biggest strength... which still leaves Casey with an advantage.

[Suburbia]

Likely R, Crimedelphia isn't turning out for uninspiring Casey.

When you're scared of black people

No, it's just the matter of the fact that Philadelphia has crime. Admit that.

Anyway, it is Lean D. Former Sen. Rick Santorum could run if Barletta implodes, but Charlie Dent would make the election in PA a bit competitive as well.

[Kamala]

I think Casey is benefitted by sharing the ballot with Wolf, who theoretically should excite progressives/liberals.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Okay, we get it. You hate black people. Anyway, Casey needs to hold his margins in the Philly suburbs, and if he does, it won't really matter if turnout in Philly drops a bit .

That's the amazing strategy that worked so well in 2016.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Casey will be fine as long as the FBI doesn't announce that he's under investigation 11 days before the election.

You forgot the part where Hillary Clinton did not campaign enough in 2/3 of the state, and also once made a comment about a "basket of deplorables" that many voters in Pennsylvania took as an insult to them.

I agree that Casey won't repeat those mistakes. But President Obama is not running for office and can't carry him.

Yeah, hopefully Wolf on the ballot will help, but I doubt it. Casey's fate rests on whether or not he can control margins in the rural parts of the state.

[Coraxion]

Likely R, Crimedelphia isn't turning out for uninspiring Casey.

When you're scared of black people

No, it's just the matter of the fact that Philadelphia has crime. Admit that.

He also calls Chicago "Crimecago" and thinks that Black Lives Matter are domestic terrorists.

[BuckeyeNut]

Likely R, Crimedelphia isn't turning out for uninspiring Casey.

When you're scared of black people

No, it's just the matter of the fact that Philadelphia has crime. Admit that.

Anyway, it is Lean D. Former Sen. Rick Santorum could run if Barletta implodes, but Charlie Dent would make the election in PA a bit competitive as well.

"I'm not racist, but..."

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Okay, we get it. You hate black people. Anyway, Casey needs to hold his margins in the Philly suburbs, and if he does, it won't really matter if turnout in Philly drops a bit .

That's the amazing strategy that worked so well in 2016.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Casey will be fine as long as the FBI doesn't announce that he's under investigation 11 days before the election.

You forgot the part where Hillary Clinton did not campaign enough in 2/3 of the state, and also once made a comment about a "basket of deplorables" that many voters in Pennsylvania took as an insult to them.

I agree that Casey won't repeat those mistakes. But President Obama is not running for office and can't carry him.

Yeah, hopefully Wolf on the ballot will help, but I doubt it. Casey's fate rests on whether or not he can control margins in the rural parts of the state.

Remind me who Tom Wolf is exciting to again? Shame Barletta ain't running against him.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Okay, we get it. You hate black people. Anyway, Casey needs to hold his margins in the Philly suburbs, and if he does, it won't really matter if turnout in Philly drops a bit .

That's the amazing strategy that worked so well in 2016.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Casey will be fine as long as the FBI doesn't announce that he's under investigation 11 days before the election.

You forgot the part where Hillary Clinton did not campaign enough in 2/3 of the state, and also once made a comment about a "basket of deplorables" that many voters in Pennsylvania took as an insult to them.

I agree that Casey won't repeat those mistakes. But President Obama is not running for office and can't carry him.

Yeah, hopefully Wolf on the ballot will help, but I doubt it. Casey's fate rests on whether or not he can control margins in the rural parts of the state.

Remind me who Tom Wolf is exciting to again? Shame Barletta ain't running against him.

Wolf has a been a do nothing Governor.  He's got a big war chest though, and that's tough to take on.