2004 Election Map For 65+ Only
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  2004 Election Map For 65+ Only
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Author Topic: 2004 Election Map For 65+ Only  (Read 2011 times)
RINO Tom
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« on: July 27, 2017, 10:11:21 AM »

Inspired by a post I made about Midwestern voters and the GOP, I decided to look back at the 2004 exit polls for only voters 65 and older in each state ... the results were pretty interesting:



Thoughts??
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2017, 10:32:52 AM »

Virginia seems wrong. Olds in NOVA were strongly Republican in my experience, and I don't think there were enough ancestral Democrats across the state to give Kerry the edge with them. Montana is also surprising, although I guess there were still a fair amount of New Deal Dems left there.

Also, why don't they do exit polls for every state anymore?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2017, 10:51:00 AM »

Virginia seems wrong. Olds in NOVA were strongly Republican in my experience, and I don't think there were enough ancestral Democrats across the state to give Kerry the edge with them. Montana is also surprising, although I guess there were still a fair amount of New Deal Dems left there.

Also, why don't they do exit polls for every state anymore?

$$$
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2017, 11:03:30 AM »

Virginia seems wrong. Olds in NOVA were strongly Republican in my experience, and I don't think there were enough ancestral Democrats across the state to give Kerry the edge with them. Montana is also surprising, although I guess there were still a fair amount of New Deal Dems left there.

Also, why don't they do exit polls for every state anymore?

I was surprised by both of those states, as well.  FWIW, Bush won "60 and older" 56%-44% but lost "65 and older" barely 49%-51% ... might have been a fluke, but it'd suggest that 60-65 year olds were STRONGLY Republican while the oldest were slightly more Democratic.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2017, 11:54:44 AM »

Whats up with Vermont? haha
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2017, 12:25:09 PM »

This looks like some weird election from the 20th century. A lot of the "weird" results are definitely leftovers of the state in older times (i.e. Vermont and ancestral Yankee Republicans).
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2017, 03:23:26 PM »

Here's one for 2016:

Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 274 EV, 52%
Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 137 EV, 45%

Since so many states weren't part of exit polling, here's what I think they'd look like based off the other states' exit polls:

Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 366 EV, 52%
Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 172 EV, 45%
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2017, 03:38:00 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2017, 03:41:23 PM by MT Treasurer »

Not that surprised by MT, honestly. This age group has often been the second most (and sometimes most) Democratic age group, and I'm pretty sure they were in the special election as well.

And wow... Bush won 65+ year olds in New York?
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2017, 04:24:43 PM »

Not that surprised by MT, honestly. This age group has often been the second most (and sometimes most) Democratic age group, and I'm pretty sure they were in the special election as well.

And wow... Bush won 65+ year olds in New York?

The state was very winnable for Republicans during most NY 65+ year olds' lifetimes.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2017, 10:42:32 AM »

Here's one for 2016:

Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 274 EV, 52%
Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 137 EV, 45%

Since so many states weren't part of exit polling, here's what I think they'd look like based off the other states' exit polls:

Donald Trump / Mike Pence - 366 EV, 52%
Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine - 172 EV, 45%

What looks weird is that they seem to only not exit poll Republican states (with a couple exceptions), but still exit poll most of the very Democratic ones.

By the way, the 18-24 map is very odd, with Trump winning a state he lost (Minnesota), but losing Indiana.  The 18-29 map is slightly more normal.
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