Interesting scenario! (Should probably be working on my own timeline, but this looked interesting
)
In Iowa, Huckabee drains support off of Thompson, allowing McCain to get into third place. McCain's right on Romney's heels in this early state.
Ron Paul garners the populist vote in Wyoming draining support from Romney. Romney 5 of the state's delegates as opposed to 8.
Conservative superPACs start airing ads (in favor of Huckabee) attacking Romneycare for being too socialistic (very similar to ACA, which of course doesn't exist yet, but similar complaints of socialized medicine could be made). Huckabee's numbers are damaged a bit by so much negative campaigning. Romney's support is severely deflated.
NH: Instead of the 5% lead McCain had over Romney IOTL, McCain finishes with 45+% of the vote (instead of 37%) and Romney comes in at a distant second, barely besting Huckabee.
MI: McCain wins this state, breaking 40%. Huckabee storms the non-urban vote, coming in at 31% and Romney stands at 25% (others are still in the race, btw).
NV: Ron Paul wins NV with <40% of the vote. McCain comes in second place, narrowly beating Romney. Romney & Hunter exit the race.
Giuliani exits the race. McCain, Huckabee, Paul and Thompson still stand.
Southern Governors successively endorse Huckabee over Thompson. Thompson withdraws.
SC: McCain beats Huckabee by 3%
ME: McCain landslide, Ron Paul finishes second.
National GOP polling: McCain 43% Huckabee: 39% Paul 18%
Paul drops out and encourages his supporters to vote for McCain.
Huckabee withdraws the next day, the day before Super Tuesday. McCain, as the last one standing, is the Republican nominee much earlier than in OTL. As a result, McCain has more time to focus on his Democratic, as opposed to Republican opponents.
Once McCain officially receives enough delegates to win the nomination, he chooses Gingrich as his running mate.
Obama, Clinton, Gore, Edwards, Kerry, Warner, Clark, Richardson, Biden, Bayh, Dodd, Vilsack & Kucinich contest the Democratic primaries.
Biden takes IA with 28% of the vote. Richardson takes NH with 23% of the vote.
Richardson takes MI. Gore doesn't contest the state as it illegally held its primary early. Its delegates won't be counted.
Richardson takes NV & Obama comes in second.
Biden wins FL. Like MI, the state illegally held its vote early, Gore doesn't contest this state and no delegates are allocated.
Richardson takes SC.
Vilsack withdraws and endorses Obama.
Super Tuesday:
Obama takes AL, CA (Clinton comes second), CT, Guam, IL, MN, and ND.
Biden takes AK.
Clinton takes American Samoa and AR. Clinton also takes AZ, Obama comes second.
Biden wins CO, DE, GA, ID, KS, MA, MO, NJ, NY (Obama 2nd), OK, TN and UT.
Richardson takes NM.
Dodd & Kucinich withdraw from the race.
Clinton wins LA & MD.
Obama wins ME, WA and DC.
Biden wins VA.
Kerry endorses Obama & withdraws from the race.
Clinton takes HI (Obama home state!).
Biden takes WI.
Gore & Warner exit the race.
Clark & Bayh hold a joint rally withdrawing and endorsing Biden.
Clinton wins OH.
Biden wins RI.
Richardson wins TX.
Obama wins VT.
Clinton takes MS.
Obama wins the US Virgin Islands.
Biden wins WY.
Edwards withdraws from the race.
Clinton takes PA.
Biden wins IN and NC.
Clinton withdraws from the race.
Obama wins NE and WV.
Biden takes KY. Obama takes OR.
Hillary Clinton endorses McCain.
Richardson withdraws from the race. Only Biden and Obama remain.
Obama takes Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico.
Dem Primaries
Biden / 1264 delegates / 27.6% of the vote
Obama / 1252 / 25.9%
Richardson / 748 / 18.7%
Clinton / 726 / 16.7%
Edwards / 59 / 8.5%
Dodd / 6 / 2%
Kucinich & Gore didn't receive any delegates.
Obama wins a floor fight at the convention. He chooses PA Gov. Ed Rendell as his running mate.
A damaged & divided Democratic party loses the election. McCain heavily targets the Hispanic vote.
279-253 McCain wins; Obama narrowly wins PV
