5 most likely people to be prez. candidates 2 years from today (both parties)?

[Mr. Morden]

Riffing on BMB's comment here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=269093.msg5752443#msg5752443

Who are the five most likely people to be running for the nomination of either major party exactly two years from today (July 26, 2019)?  That's late enough in the cycle that presumably just about everyone who is going to run will have declared their candidacy.  By July 26, 2015, for example, every Dem. and Republican candidate had declared except for Gilmore and Lessig.  It'll probably be a few weeks before the first Democratic debate (if it won't have already happened).  Whether there even are any GOP debates in 2019/20 depends on if Trump is running, and if he actually gets primary challengers who for whatever reason he agrees to debate.

EDIT:
To clarify, I'm interested in a single list of 5 names for both parties combined.

[I'm a prince to the grifters, I turn apostles to pimps]

Democrats

Certainly will be candidates:

Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Kamala Harris
Steve Bullock
Andrew Cuomo

More than likely will be candidates:

Joe Biden
Kirsten Gillibrand
Martin O'Malley

Could be candidates:

Bernie Sanders (probably won't run if Warren runs first)
John Bel Edwards
Sherrod Brown
Jeff Merkley

Less likely to be candidates:

John Hickenlooper
Eric Holder
Tulsi Gabbard
Eric Garcetti
Amy Klobuchar

Republicans

Will be candidates:

Donald Trump
John Kasich

Could be candidates:

Ben Sasse
Justin Amash

Less likely to be a candidate:

Nikki Haley

[Crumpets]

Dems:
Warren
Booker
Gabbard
Gillibrand
Harris

GOP:
Trump
Pence
Amash
Paul
Sasse

[Mr. Morden]

To clarify, I meant a single list of 5 people (though you can go on for longer if you like).  E.g., I think mine would be something like:

1) O'Malley
2) Booker
3) Trump
4) Cuomo
5) Warren

Trump is already running, but there's a high enough chance of him dropping out of the race that I think O'Malley and Booker are more likely than him to be running as of two years from today.

[Possiblymaybe]

dems
Cuomo
Sanders
Booker
Bullock
Warren

Rep
Paul
Sasse
Pence
Trump
Kasich

[Bull Moose Base]

LBJ didn't drop out until 1968 after underperforming in New Hampshire but then again, he didn't defiantly assert his power to pardon himself 6 months into office. As I declared- perhaps hyperbolically in the post that inspired this thread- I don't think Trump makes the Top 5. But I will proudly stick with that... I'll do 10!

1. O'Malley
2. Booker
3. Cuomo
4. Gillibrand
5. Klobuchar
6. Warren
7. Trump
8. Pence
9. Harris
10. Biden

[Mr. Morden]

10. Biden

I wonder if Biden will take forever to decide, like last time.  (Meaning, even if he runs, he might not get in by the end of July.)  I could imagine a scenario where Biden and/or Sanders tease a run deep into the summer, before finally announcing that they're not running.  Their popularity and name recognition are both already high enough that they can get away with that in a way that the other candidates can't.  OTOH, I guess if they actually are serious about running, they might not want to wait that long.

[Kingpoleon]

1. Donald Trump
2. Mike Pence
3. Martin O'Malley
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Andrew Cuomo


6. Kamala Harris
7. Bernie Sanders
8. Cory Booker
9. John Kasich
10. Justin Amash

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Dems:
Warren
Booker
Gabbard
Gillibrand
Harris

GOP:
Trump
Pence
Amash
Paul
Sasse

You got it

[Bull Moose Base]

10. Biden

I wonder if Biden will take forever to decide, like last time.  (Meaning, even if he runs, he might not get in by the end of July.)  I could imagine a scenario where Biden and/or Sanders tease a run deep into the summer, before finally announcing that they're not running.  Their popularity and name recognition are both already high enough that they can get away with that in a way that the other candidates can't.  OTOH, I guess if they actually are serious about running, they might not want to wait that long.

I think if he runs, he'll try to win obviously but it'll also be something of exorcising the demons of regret for not running last time. So I think he'll try to consolidate support and establish himself as the frontrunner early.

Conversely, if Trump decides not to run again, I wonder how long he would conceal that while he tries to funnel campaign money to his businesses. Maybe he'd take it into 2020.

1. Donald Trump
2. Mike Pence

Since it's almost inconceivable Pence would run against Trump, this only makes sense if you think no Democrats are likely to run e.g. if you think Trump and Pence are each about 50/50 to be a presidential candidate in 2 years and no individual Democrat is that high yet.

[Bidenworth2020]

10. Biden

I wonder if Biden will take forever to decide, like last time.  (Meaning, even if he runs, he might not get in by the end of July.)  I could imagine a scenario where Biden and/or Sanders tease a run deep into the summer, before finally announcing that they're not running.  Their popularity and name recognition are both already high enough that they can get away with that in a way that the other candidates can't.  OTOH, I guess if they actually are serious about running, they might not want to wait that long.

I think if he runs, he'll try to win obviously but it'll also be something of exorcising the demons of regret for not running last time. So I think he'll try to consolidate support and establish himself as the frontrunner early.

Conversely, if Trump decides not to run again, I wonder how long he would conceal that while he tries to funnel campaign money to his businesses. Maybe he'd take it into 2020.

1. Donald Trump
2. Mike Pence

Since it's almost inconceivable Pence would run against Trump, this only makes sense if you think no Democrats are likely to run e.g. if you think Trump and Pence are each about 50/50 to be a presidential candidate in 2 years and no individual Democrat is that high yet.

most of this is correct

[Mr. Morden]

1. Donald Trump
2. Mike Pence
3. Martin O'Malley
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Andrew Cuomo


6. Kamala Harris
7. Bernie Sanders
8. Cory Booker
9. John Kasich
10. Justin Amash

THIS LIST IS ALREADY OBSOLETE BECAUSE OF JOHN DELANEY.

[Mike Thick]

Democrats:
1. John Delaney
2. John Delaney
3. John Delaney
4. John Delaney
5. John Delaney

Republicans:
1. John Delaney
2. Mike Pence
3. John Delaney
4. John Delaney
5. Donald Trump

[JoeyOCanada]

Democrats:
1. Elizabeth Warren
2. Cory Booker
3. Sherrod Brown
4. Martin O'Malley
5. Joe Biden

Republicans:
1. Donald Trump
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
4. Mike Pence

Honestly can't think of 5 people for the Republicans. Kasich and Cruz seem most likely to try to primary Trump. Pence is there in case Trump decides not to run again.

[Mr. Morden]

Honestly can't think of 5 people for the Republicans.

As I said before, I wasn't actually asking for separate lists for the two parties, but for a combined list that included both parties, like the one I posted here:

To clarify, I meant a single list of 5 people (though you can go on for longer if you like).  E.g., I think mine would be something like:

1) O'Malley
2) Booker
3) Trump
4) Cuomo
5) Warren

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Democrats:
1. John Delaney
2. John Delaney
3. John Delaney
4. John Delaney
5. John Delaney

Republicans:
1. John Delaney
2. Mike Pence
3. John Delaney
4. John Delaney
5. Donald Trump