VA-Monmouth: dead heat

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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

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So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

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I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So that'd be 68% of undecideds saying Trump isn't, alright.

Gillespie's group is probably almost all former Stewart supporters.

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I still can't believe that 68% of the undecideds, who have their Trump favorables at 22-60 iirc, think he doesn't matter.

If ANYONE here works on the Northam campaign, they have to stop talking about Trump so much, they need to get a positive economic message, attack Gillespie's establishment ties, and, this is very important, SLAM HEALTHCARE HOME IN THE COAL COUNTIES, that's exactly where you have the highest possible gain from healthcare with so many of them getting govt. help.  If Northam focuses too much on Trump it will backfire, 100%.