VA-Monmouth: dead heat (user search)
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  VA-Monmouth: dead heat (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: dead heat  (Read 3714 times)
Virginiá
Virginia
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Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

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« on: July 24, 2017, 01:30:54 PM »

I think the problem is Northam is still too anonymous with 46% having no opinion, but it is only July, and people don't start paying attention until September-October.

I also don't want to unskew, but this poll has a 47-36 Republican primary voting history advantage. That doesn't seem right considering the way the primary went this year.

Good points!

59% of people say Trump is not a factor in how they'll vote for governor, plus 14% saying a minor factor. This is not as good a strategy as it may seem despite Trump having a 57% disapproval rating.

Tying Gillespie to Trump in NOVA only might be worthwhile. Even if people say it isn't a factor, it still might be subconsciously. I seriously doubt for many people their candidate choice is actually isolated from their feelings on Trump, although given just how low Trump's approvals are in Virginia, it might be the case that a negative Trump effect will already be built into the race in terms of enthusiasm and other factors whether or not Northam chooses to carry out an anti-Trump campaign.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2017, 03:14:11 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2017, 03:15:43 PM by Virginia »

^ Democrats aren't really sleeping on anything. There is a still a rather blatant enthusiasm gap between the two parties right now, which is compounded by the partisan leanings of VA. Further, Northam had to expend a lot of resources to put down Perriello, so it's not surprising that he doesn't have enough gas in the tank right now to substantially increase his exposure. If this is still the case come mid-late September, then yeah, might be a problem, but otherwise, Gillespie is still the one with a hill to climb.

I don't necessarily disagree, but I think people, especially in NOVA, dislike Trump because of his fundamentally rotten character and corrupt dealings, not necessarily his policies that he's advocated (although those are also extremely bad and unpopular).

Oh, that is another good point. That reminds me of something by Gallup (iirc) that showed that Trump's negatives are driven in large part by differences of character, whereas Bush and Obama was mainly based on policy. I hadn't considered the potential implications of that in elections happening under Trump's tenure.
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Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,884
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2017, 03:22:01 PM »


Hey Dave, just in the off chance you pop back in this thread, did you get a chance to read my PM/email about a serious forum bug / something I made for the forum? I made a thread about it in the Cave as well.
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