VA-Monmouth: dead heat (user search)
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  VA-Monmouth: dead heat (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: dead heat  (Read 3685 times)
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« on: July 24, 2017, 01:17:08 PM »
« edited: July 24, 2017, 01:18:49 PM by heatcharger »

It's time to start tying him to Trump.

59% of people say Trump is not a factor in how they'll vote for governor, plus 14% saying a minor factor. This is not as good a strategy as it may seem despite Trump having a 57% disapproval rating.

I think the problem is Northam is still too anonymous with 46% having no opinion, but it is only July, and people don't start paying attention until September-October.

I also don't want to unskew, but this poll has a 47-36 Republican primary voting history advantage. That doesn't seem right considering the way the primary went this year.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2017, 02:28:44 PM »

Tying Gillespie to Trump in NOVA only might be worthwhile. Even if people say it isn't a factor, it still might be subconsciously. I seriously doubt for many people their candidate choice is actually isolated from their feelings on Trump, although given just how low Trump's approvals are in Virginia, it might be the case that a negative Trump effect will already be built into the race in terms of enthusiasm and other factors whether or not Northam chooses to carry out an anti-Trump campaign.

I don't necessarily disagree, but I think people, especially in NOVA, dislike Trump because of his fundamentally rotten character and corrupt dealings, not necessarily his policies that he's advocated (although those are also extremely bad and unpopular). I think this may drive turnout among angry Democrats who may have skipped off-year elections in the past, but it's harder to convince nonpartisans that Trump is a good enough reason to vote against Gillespie.

Another problem is Virginia never got the Medicaid expansion, so Northam can't even rail against the healthcare bill as a statewide issue as effectively as it would in New Jersey, for example. I think Northam needs to just run the standard VA Dem playbook of going heavy on jobs, schools, and transportation.
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heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2017, 11:08:14 AM »

Dave, could you approve my account for entering polls into the database?
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