VA-Monmouth: dead heat (user search)
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  VA-Monmouth: dead heat (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: dead heat  (Read 3674 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« on: July 24, 2017, 07:27:15 PM »

Go Gillespie!
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2017, 08:14:54 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2017, 08:16:32 PM by Dwarven Dragon »

I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

Quote
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So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2017, 08:23:05 PM »

I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2017, 08:48:58 PM »

I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So that'd be 68% of undecideds saying Trump isn't, alright.

Gillespie's group is probably almost all former Stewart supporters.

If Dems were remotely competent, Trump's approval rating in the state/district should be a ceiling on the GOP share of the vote in any election held for the next 4 years unless the Dem candidate has a yuge scandal.  That's how it worked in the Obama years.

Er, not really. Obama's approval in Louisiana in 2014 was around 35%, but Mary Landrieu received 44% of the vote.
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