Very nicely put ndcohn. I would have to agree 100% with what you just said. Based on trends in the past 4 presidential elections and current population predictions I would say we are in for another realignment located in the Interior West if the Democrats are smart and don't nominate another New England Liberal.
If the current population trends hold, I also predict Ohio will be much less important in 2012. Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona are going to become the new battelground states as their electoral power grows and Ohio's continues to shrink. Another possibility is that the Mid-Atlantic Coast could begin trending Democratic. Virginia and North Carolina could become more competitive down the line if the 2006 election was any indication of where those states are headed.
I agree. I don't think there's any question that AZ, NM, CO, and NV are going to be the big swing states of the near future. If current trends continue, expect the Northeast to become solid for the Democrats, even more so than the South is for the GOP now. The Midwest will probably move towards the GOP a little, making states like MI and WI more of a struggle for the Dems. The Interior/Deep South will become the strong GOP area (KY, TN, GA, AL, MS, SC, LA, and I would say maybe even FL). And the big swing areas will be VA and NC, and the aforementioned Western states. Some Democrats expect Texas to move in our direction, and point to the fact that the GOP has been nominating Texans for the past 20 years. I'd say don't count on it. Is there one statewide elected Democrat in Texas? I'm not sure, but if there are it's not many. And that gorwing Hispanic population isn't going to stick with the Democrats forever if the GOP continues it's move towards populism. The Hispanic population may be more socially conservative than the Southern whites. This is what I see for the 2016 election, provided it's dead even.
Some interesting ones:
Pennsylvania - STRONG DEM - Yes, I think within 10 years, this state will be as solid for the Dems as say, Washington is now. All you have to look at is the Philly suburbs. Mongomery County, one of the richest in the nation and for the longest time strongly Republican, just gave Ed Rendell over 70% of their vote, a 10% swing to the left. That's insane.
Florida - LEAN GOP - Two trends hurt the Democrats here. One, the influx of older Americans I believe helps the GOP, whose beliefs are more traditional. Two, the Hispanic shift towards the GOP that I believe will happen.
Colorado - LEAN DEM - The growth of those liberal ski areas and cities like Denver will push this state in the Democrats' direction pretty soon. Maybe as soon as 2008. Remember, this is a state Dole won.
New Hampshire - STRONG DEM - the next Vermont, 'nuff said.
North Carolina - LEAN GOP - this state is too solidly GOP now to move that far in just 10 years. It's gorwing fast, but it's going to take a long time before it becomes a true tossup, if it ever does.
