Realigning elections

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1800
1828
1860
1896
1932
1948
1968
1980

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1800-The first realigning election, since it gave complete control to one party for the next quarter of a century.  The Jeffersonians were in the majority of Congress for the entire time, and after 1812 did not face serious opposition until 1828.
1828-After this election, the Jeffersonians were eliminated, and the party system became the Democrats versus the Whigs up until the Civil War.  The South solidified its control over the government, as every President from then until the War was either a Southerner or a Southern sympathizer.
1860-This marks the period of absolute Republican dominance, at both the Presidential and Congressional levels.  From 1860-1896, only one Democrat was elected President, and the Dem,ocrats controlled the Senate for a total of 4 years.  Although the House was more fluid, the GOP was still the dominant party.
1896-Although this was not as such of a political realignment, and really just continued the Republican dominance of the last 40 years, it was a massive shift in terms of how elections were carried out, ushering in the modern type of big money and personal campaigns.  Also, at or around this time, and carrying on through 1921, is the "Progressive Era."
1932-This was the ultimate realignment, bringing in for the next 35 years the "New Deal Coalition" of blue collar workers, blacks, Jews, Catholics, and immigrants.  From 1932-1968, the Democrats controlled the Senate for 32 of 36 years, the House for 32 of 36 years, and the Presidency for 28 of 36 years.  Just as the election of 1860 entered into the GOP dominance, 1932 brought in the era of total Democratic control, that lasted at the Congressional level until 1994.
1968-This election was a Presidential realignment, with the South finally bolting the Democrats once and for all, giving its electoral votes to the GOP in every election since, with 1976 as an outlier.  This also cracked FDR's coalition in terms of the votes of Catholics and blue collar workers,  as Nixon exploited resentment over Civil Rights and social issues to unprecendented levels.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1800-The first realigning election, since it gave complete control to one party for the next quarter of a century.  The Jeffersonians were in the majority of Congress for the entire time, and after 1812 did not face serious opposition until 1828.
1828-After this election, the Jeffersonians were eliminated, and the party system became the Democrats versus the Whigs up until the Civil War.  The South solidified its control over the government, as every President from then until the War was either a Southerner or a Southern sympathizer.
1860-This marks the period of absolute Republican dominance, at both the Presidential and Congressional levels.  From 1860-1896, only one Democrat was elected President, and the Dem,ocrats controlled the Senate for a total of 4 years.  Although the House was more fluid, the GOP was still the dominant party.
1896-Although this was not as such of a political realignment, and really just continued the Republican dominance of the last 40 years, it was a massive shift in terms of how elections were carried out, ushering in the modern type of big money and personal campaigns.  Also, at or around this time, and carrying on through 1921, is the "Progressive Era."
1932-This was the ultimate realignment, bringing in for the next 35 years the "New Deal Coalition" of blue collar workers, blacks, Jews, Catholics, and immigrants.  From 1932-1968, the Democrats controlled the Senate for 32 of 36 years, the House for 32 of 36 years, and the Presidency for 28 of 36 years.  Just as the election of 1860 entered into the GOP dominance, 1932 brought in the era of total Democratic control, that lasted at the Congressional level until 1994.
1968-This election was a Presidential realignment, with the South finally bolting the Democrats once and for all, giving its electoral votes to the GOP in every election since, with 1976 as an outlier.  This also cracked FDR's coalition in terms of the votes of Catholics and blue collar workers,  as Nixon exploited resentment over Civil Rights and social issues to unprecendented levels.

I still agree with that, although I am a bit off on 1968.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1856

1856 was not a realigning election.  How do you make the case for it?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1800: Democratic-Republicans take over, power shifts from New England to the South, and spells the end of the first two-party system as the Federalists never again regain either the presidency or Congress, and towards the end of this period, the latter shall dissolve entirely after the end of the War of 1812.  Also known as the period of the 'Virginia dynasty'.

1828: Andrew Jackson's presidency heralds the beginning of a more democratic era in American politics, and the second period of a two-party system as the Democratic and Whig parties battle it out. 

1860: With the dissolving of the Whig Party over slavery in the wake of the Kansas-Nebraska Act and Dred Scott decision, a new political era opens with the beginning of the third (and current) period of a two-party system as Republicans first begin to establish their ascendancy as they battle it out with Democrats during and after the Civil War.

1896: As Civil War-era issues begin to fade, a new paradigm is set as the industrial revolution and the Gilded Age shape a new era.  Democrats decisively side with populists with the candidacy of William Jennings Bryan, and Republicans under William McKinley and Mark Hanna side with business interests, and triumph twice decisively, marking the beginning of a period of Republican dominance in which all but eight of those years were presided over by a Republican president. 

1932: The Great Depression brings a sudden end to Republican ascendance, and the beginning of an era of Democratic dominance with the New Deal coalition brought together by President Franklin D. Roosevelt.  It is during this era that organized labor is at its strongest and most influential. 

1968: Richard Nixon wins and holds on to his presidency with a Southern Strategy that involved eventually turning the South Republican as the Republican Party turned more conservative to cater to disaffected Dixiecrats.  It marks the beginning of a period of conservative dominance, marked later on with the victory of Ronald Reagan in 1980, and the Republican Revolution in 1994, and the final full flowering of the conservative Republican coalition with President George W. Bush's re-election in 2004, and final Republican consolidation in the South. 

2008: Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, the grinding quagmire of the Iraq War, the implosion of the conservative Republican coalition that had held together for forty years, a growing insecurity among Americans with and as a result of globalization (and free trade in particular), and the disaffection of the American people (particularly the Millennial generation as it grows older) with conservatism and the Republican Party in general will mark the beginning of another period of Democratic dominance as Americans turn once more to the left.  For their efforts to fight illegal immigration Republicans, rightly or wrongly, will be seen by Latinos as a den of nativists and xenophobes and generally unwelcoming to ethnic minorities.  As with blacks during the 1964 Goldwater campaign, the GOP will decisively cede the Latino vote as a whole to Democrats for at least a generation.  With the GOP so closely associated with the South and the Religious Right in the minds of most Americans, Democrats will find their greatest chance for expanding their power throughout the Rocky Mountain West, especially in the Southwest. 

The only way 2008 will be a realignment is that if Democrats not only win the White House, but also pick up at least a dozen seats in the House and five in the Senate.  Without that happening, the Democratic President will not be able to implement any progressive reforms(i.e. Clinton in 1993-1994).

What do you think now?

I don't think we can call 2008 anything until at least 2020/2024.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

We'll be able to tell if 2008 wasn't in 2010.

I disagree.  People say that 1968 was a realignment, but the GOP didn't do so well in 1970.  Congressional elections are, I find, not a good way to tell if something was a realignment.  The Democrats could do poorly in 2010, but landslide in 2012/2014/2016.  Presidential elections matter a lot more in determining a realignment than Congressional elections do.