Realigning elections

[Padfoot]

Everyone keeps citing the 1968 election as the big realignment but I think that the real big one was 1964 and it all hinges on the passage of a single law in Congress.  The Civil Rights Act of 1964.  The South went Republican because the Democrats shattered their own coalition by forcing the Civil Rights Acts through Congress making it easy for Nixon to pick up the pieces in 1968.
The reason the 1964 election was so huge is that even though it was a Democratic landslide, they failed to win the base they had relied on since Reconstruction: the South.  That base was so reliable that it was commonly referred to as the Solid South at the time.  The most striking example of this is Mississippi which gave Goldwater a whopping 87% of the vote.  I would say that if an entire region suddenly undergoes a 20 point flop from one party to the other after 100 years of loyalty you have to call it a realignment. 

[Padfoot]

Very nicely put ndcohn.  I would have to agree 100% with what you just said.  Based on trends in the past 4 presidential elections and current population predictions I would say we are in for another realignment located in the Interior West if the Democrats are smart and don't nominate another New England Liberal.

If the current population trends hold, I also predict Ohio will be much less important in 2012.  Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona are going to become the new battelground states as their electoral power grows and Ohio's continues to shrink.  Another possibility is that the Mid-Atlantic Coast could begin trending Democratic.  Virginia and North Carolina could become more competitive down the line if the 2006 election was any indication of where those states are headed.

[Padfoot]

I'm not quite convinced that the Midwest is trending Republican takeourcountryback.  If the 2006 election was any indication, the Midwest is trending Democrat.  Actually, I take that back.  I think what is happening here is that the entire Midwest is in flux.  Those states that traditionally break Republican are trending towards Democrats and vice versa.  People are looking for someone to blame for the bad economy here due to the loss of manufacturing jobs.  The party in power is an easy target.