Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017

[cp]

What's the level the NDP would have to get to in order to maintain a plurality/majority of seats?

[Njall]

Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.

I disagree. I think it's more likely the Liberals will disappear into irrelevancy (if they have not done so already) like they did in Saskatchewan.

I think that some Liberals will gravitate to the Alberta Party if the ABP becomes recognized as the consensus centrist option, but in terms of the Liberal Party as an institution, I agree with Hatman. David Khan has been unwilling (so far, at least) to talk cooperation with the ABP, and seems content to contest the next election on his party's own merits. In all likelihood, David Swann (their only remaining MLA) will retire at the next election and the ALP will be unable to keep his seat, furthering their descent into irrelevance.

What's the level the NDP would have to get to in order to maintain a plurality/majority of seats?

There are a number of complicating factors that make this sort of question really tough to answer right now. For instance, the question of how much support third-party options like the Alberta Party will have, and the effects of the electoral boundary redistribution.

For the time being, I would say that they would need to at least hold on to their 2015 level of support to maintain a majority, and if non-UCP opposition parties prove to be non-factors, they would likely need to gain support beyond 2015 levels. Even if non-UCP opposition parties pick up a noticeable following, I would say the NDP would need at least 35% for a plurality of seats, which based on current polling would be hard to achieve, but would theoretically be in reach.

[mileslunn]

What's the level the NDP would have to get to in order to maintain a plurality/majority of seats?

I would say 45% for a majority while depending on third parties anywhere from 35% to 42% for a plurality.  Also distribution of votes too is a big thing as the UCP is likely to run up the margins in Rural Alberta so if the NDP were to lose by say 3 or 4 points they probably still would end up with more seats as this would mean being slightly ahead in Calgary (note in Calgary while UCP is well ahead UCP support is usually about 5% below their provincewide average) while in Edmonton the NDP may sweep again, but it won't be by blowout margins last time and certainly the NDP margins in Edmonton will be much smaller than the UCP margins in Rural Alberta.  Off course with a 28 point gap, they have got a lot of work to do to overcome that.  If the election were next year, I would say they are finished, but 2019 might be enough time to recover but will be tough.  Add to the fact 59.5% voted federally for the Harper led Tories so the idea of the UCP being too right wing for Alberta seems less likely to work as I suspect most who were comfortable voting for Harper federally in 2015 would be fine voting for Kenney or Jean.  That is probably why Kenney went provincial as he knew he was too right wing to ever win federally, but could win in Alberta.

[mileslunn]

Doug Schweitzer has condemned the Rebel media and stated Conservatives should have nothing to do with them as they are supportive of neo-nazis after Faith Goldy reporting on the Charlottesville march and showing support for the alt right.  Will be interesting what impact that has.  No doubt the more right wing elements won't like him attacking the Rebel media, but it could help amongst moderates.  Also depending on how other polls show between now and the leadership will be interesting if you get a large number of progressive signing up to vote in the leadership race like they did for Alison Redford.  Back then it was a foregone conclusion the PCs would win so many unions and progressives signed up to support whomever they thought was the least bad.  At the moment most of that group is happy with the NDP, but if it looks like a UCP win is inevitable (I don't think most on the left feel it is) could we see more of them signing up?

[Njall]

Doug Schweitzer has condemned the Rebel media and stated Conservatives should have nothing to do with them as they are supportive of neo-nazis after Faith Goldy reporting on the Charlottesville march and showing support for the alt right.  Will be interesting what impact that has.  No doubt the more right wing elements won't like him attacking the Rebel media, but it could help amongst moderates.  Also depending on how other polls show between now and the leadership will be interesting if you get a large number of progressive signing up to vote in the leadership race like they did for Alison Redford.  Back then it was a foregone conclusion the PCs would win so many unions and progressives signed up to support whomever they thought was the least bad.  At the moment most of that group is happy with the NDP, but if it looks like a UCP win is inevitable (I don't think most on the left feel it is) could we see more of them signing up?

I personally don't think you'll see a lot of (or any) progressives joining the UCP to vote for him. You've definitely touched on the first reason that I think that, namely that there's actually an NDP government in place and many or all on the progressive side would prefer to work to save their actual progressive government. Another notable difference between this leadership election and the 2011 PC leadership is that, at least from what I recall, Alison Redford was presenting herself as a relative fiscal moderate in addition to being fairly socially progressive. Here, on the other hand, while Schweitzer is certainly the most moderate candidate on social/cultural issues by far, he's proudly been branding himself as the "most fiscally conservative candidate" due to his tax cut and public sector wage cut plans.

All of that said, it will be interesting to see what impact this whole thing has on his campaign. He's certainly been getting a good amount of positive media coverage due to this, which could help bolster his fortunes.

[Njall]

Fildebrandt's not having a good week.

[Njall]

Update: Fildebrandt has quit the UCP caucus. Probably good for the party because this weeklong saga has been a lot more entertaining than leadership news.

[mileslunn]

I was wondering whom you guys think is most likely to win the UCP leadership and also next election what the chances are.  I tried creating a separate topic but I guess too similar it got deleted. 

For UCP leadership race

Jason Kenney
Brian Jean
Other candidate

General election

UCP will definitely win the next election
UCP will likely win the next election but not certain
NDP will likely get re-elected but not certain
NDP definitely gets re-elected

I choose Jason Kenney as leader although personally my choice would be Doug Schweizer.  For the next general election, mine is UCP will likely win next election but not certain.  In terms of popular vote I will say the UCP definitely wins that, but I think there is a remote chance of the NDP winning a minority in seats while UCP winning the popular vote but that would be the most optimistic for the NDP and worst case scenario for the UCP.

[Njall]

I'm thinking that Kenney will take the leadership, especially since many of those who will be voting were brought into the party through his Unite Alberta campaign.

For the general election, out of the options you've given, I'd pick 'UCP will likely win the next election but not certain.' Assuming Kenney wins the leadership, it's important to note that polling has shown that he's the leadership contender who the most voters are unsure about (the Mainstreet poll that tested how the UCP would do under each leader showed 28% of respondents undecided under a Kenney leadership - under Jean, by comparison, undecideds were at 21%). I could see a range of outcomes from a UCP majority to an NDP minority playing out.

[mileslunn]

I'm thinking that Kenney will take the leadership, especially since many of those who will be voting were brought into the party through his Unite Alberta campaign.

For the general election, out of the options you've given, I'd pick 'UCP will likely win the next election but not certain.' Assuming Kenney wins the leadership, it's important to note that polling has shown that he's the leadership contender who the most voters are unsure about (the Mainstreet poll that tested how the UCP would do under each leader showed 28% of respondents undecided under a Kenney leadership - under Jean, by comparison, undecideds were at 21%). I could see a range of outcomes from a UCP majority to an NDP minority playing out.

Just for curiosity how do you think it would breakdown.  My thinking by region goes like the following.

Rest of Alberta - Massively UCP and asides from Lethbridge or maybe a riding or two in the Capital region I expect a UCP sweep and maybe even those ones.

Calgary - Favours the UCP, but the NDP still has a strong base, but they would really need a perfect storm to hold most of what they have as last time it was 33% NDP, 31% PC, and 24% WRP so even if some don't support the new party it will be tough for the NDP here.

Edmonton - Should stay largely NDP, question is whether it will be a clean sweep or just the majority of seats.

I am pretty much 100% certain the UCP will win the popular vote, otherwise an NDP minority would probably still have the UCP winning the popular vote, but do so by piling up massive margins in Rural Alberta while narrowly losing most of its urban seats.

[Njall]

I'm thinking that Kenney will take the leadership, especially since many of those who will be voting were brought into the party through his Unite Alberta campaign.

For the general election, out of the options you've given, I'd pick 'UCP will likely win the next election but not certain.' Assuming Kenney wins the leadership, it's important to note that polling has shown that he's the leadership contender who the most voters are unsure about (the Mainstreet poll that tested how the UCP would do under each leader showed 28% of respondents undecided under a Kenney leadership - under Jean, by comparison, undecideds were at 21%). I could see a range of outcomes from a UCP majority to an NDP minority playing out.

Just for curiosity how do you think it would breakdown.  My thinking by region goes like the following.

Rest of Alberta - Massively UCP and asides from Lethbridge or maybe a riding or two in the Capital region I expect a UCP sweep and maybe even those ones.

Calgary - Favours the UCP, but the NDP still has a strong base, but they would really need a perfect storm to hold most of what they have as last time it was 33% NDP, 31% PC, and 24% WRP so even if some don't support the new party it will be tough for the NDP here.

Edmonton - Should stay largely NDP, question is whether it will be a clean sweep or just the majority of seats.

I am pretty much 100% certain the UCP will win the popular vote, otherwise an NDP minority would probably still have the UCP winning the popular vote, but do so by piling up massive margins in Rural Alberta while narrowly losing most of its urban seats.

Well, I can't say exactly until the Electoral Boundaries Commission releases its final report. But if the recommendations of the interim report were to be adopted with no changes, my thinking would go along these lines:

Seats where NDP are favoured:

• All 20 seats in Edmonton proper
• Calgary-Buffalo
• Calgary-Currie
• Calgary-Klein
• Calgary-Mountain View (pickup from Alberta Liberal)
• Calgary-Varsity
• St. Albert
• Sherwood Park
• Lethbridge-West

Total: 28 seats

Plus...

Tossups where NDP could be competitive:

• Calgary-Forest
• Calgary-Cross (if Ricardo Miranda re-runs)
• Calgary-Airport (if Irfan Sabir re-runs)
• Lethbridge-East
• Medicine Hat (if Bob Wanner re-runs)
• St. Albert-Redwater
• Strathcona-Sherwood Park
• Leduc-Beaumont
• Lesser Slave Lake
• Wetaskiwin-Camrose
• Banff-Stoney
• Grande Prairie (potential pickup)
• Red Deer-North
• Red Deer-South

Total: 14 seats

The caveat here is that, aside from not knowing what the actual boundaries would be, I'm also unsure of where a third party like the Alberta Party would be competitive. That said, if the NDP were to somehow win every seat that I've listed here, they would have 42 seats, which could be enough for a minority government.

[mileslunn]

I'm thinking that Kenney will take the leadership, especially since many of those who will be voting were brought into the party through his Unite Alberta campaign.

For the general election, out of the options you've given, I'd pick 'UCP will likely win the next election but not certain.' Assuming Kenney wins the leadership, it's important to note that polling has shown that he's the leadership contender who the most voters are unsure about (the Mainstreet poll that tested how the UCP would do under each leader showed 28% of respondents undecided under a Kenney leadership - under Jean, by comparison, undecideds were at 21%). I could see a range of outcomes from a UCP majority to an NDP minority playing out.

Just for curiosity how do you think it would breakdown.  My thinking by region goes like the following.

Rest of Alberta - Massively UCP and asides from Lethbridge or maybe a riding or two in the Capital region I expect a UCP sweep and maybe even those ones.

Calgary - Favours the UCP, but the NDP still has a strong base, but they would really need a perfect storm to hold most of what they have as last time it was 33% NDP, 31% PC, and 24% WRP so even if some don't support the new party it will be tough for the NDP here.

Edmonton - Should stay largely NDP, question is whether it will be a clean sweep or just the majority of seats.

I am pretty much 100% certain the UCP will win the popular vote, otherwise an NDP minority would probably still have the UCP winning the popular vote, but do so by piling up massive margins in Rural Alberta while narrowly losing most of its urban seats.

Well, I can't say exactly until the Electoral Boundaries Commission releases its final report. But if the recommendations of the interim report were to be adopted with no changes, my thinking would go along these lines:

Seats where NDP are favoured:

• All 20 seats in Edmonton proper
• Calgary-Buffalo
• Calgary-Currie
• Calgary-Klein
• Calgary-Mountain View (pickup from Alberta Liberal)
• Calgary-Varsity
• St. Albert
• Sherwood Park
• Lethbridge-West

Total: 28 seats

Plus...

Tossups where NDP could be competitive:

• Calgary-Forest
• Calgary-Cross (if Ricardo Miranda re-runs)
• Calgary-Airport (if Irfan Sabir re-runs)
• Lethbridge-East
• Medicine Hat (if Bob Wanner re-runs)
• St. Albert-Redwater
• Strathcona-Sherwood Park
• Leduc-Beaumont
• Lesser Slave Lake
• Wetaskiwin-Camrose
• Banff-Stoney
• Grande Prairie (potential pickup)
• Red Deer-North
• Red Deer-South

Total: 14 seats

The caveat here is that, aside from not knowing what the actual boundaries would be, I'm also unsure of where a third party like the Alberta Party would be competitive. That said, if the NDP were to somehow win every seat that I've listed here, they would have 42 seats, which could be enough for a minority government.

I would say at the moment most of the toss ups are probably uphill battles, but certainly not impossible.  All of them went massively Tory federally in 2015 as well as historically lean right.  I also think in Calgary right now the UCP has a pretty strong lead so the NDP would have to cut that dramatically to win more than a few seats.  Likewise while I agree at the moment with the 28 seats mentioned I am not sure a sweep of Edmonton is a foregone conclusion but certainly possible.  Which seat is the most favourable for the UCP of the Edmonton seats?

Likewise even with 42 seats, unless the Alberta Party picks up seats, I have it as 44 seats UCP, 42 seats NDP, and 1 seat Alberta Party.  Off course it would be a razor thin majority and when you factor in the speaker, they would have to break a lot of ties, never mind one by-election loss could change things thus such scenario probably wouldn't last the full four years.

While not perfect, do you have the federal 2015 results for these as I am thinking any provincial riding where the federal Tory vote in 2015 was over 50% will probably go UCP, while if under 50% then the NDP favoured and although not perfect that would probably be the closest as I don't think you will see many Harper voters from 2015 cross over to the NDP, maybe some might go Alberta Party but Harper was fairly similar in ideology to Kenney and Jean so I suspect most of those will go UCP.  They may do slightly worse simply do due demographic change (i.e. those who died or left the province are more likely to be Tory voters, while those not old enough to vote, not Canadian citizens, or moved to Alberta more likely to be progressive voters).

[Njall]

Generally speaking, the most favourable seats to the UCP would be the ridings in suburban southwest Edmonton, likely Edmonton-Whitemud, Edmonton-McClung, and Edmonton-South West on the current map. Those seats tend to be wealthier and more conservative-leaning, so I'd look there first.

The Alberta Party's performance would certainly be a wildcard. In Calgary, for example, I imagine that many of the seats that the Alberta Party would be competitive in would otherwise be seats which would be favourable to the NDP (such as Calgary-Currie and Calgary-Varsity).

I would caution against directly using federal results to predict provincial results, especially in Alberta. Speaking as an Albertan, my province is very big-C Conservative federally, but a lot of that can still be related to the western populist flavour of the federal Conservatives, and the general feeling that only the CPC will stand up for Alberta's interests. These voting intentions don't always transition over to the provincial level. For example, the city of Lethbridge voted approximately 53% for the NDP provincially in 2015, yet in the federal election, the NDP won very few polls in the city, and the Conservative candidate won the Lethbridge riding (which, to be fair, contains rural Lethbridge County in addition to the city) with 56%. Every poll in the West Lethbridge section of the city (everything west of the Oldman River) went NDP provincially and CPC federally in 2015.

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

[mileslunn]

Generally speaking, the most favourable seats to the UCP would be the ridings in suburban southwest Edmonton, likely Edmonton-Whitemud, Edmonton-McClung, and Edmonton-South West on the current map. Those seats tend to be wealthier and more conservative-leaning, so I'd look there first.

The Alberta Party's performance would certainly be a wildcard. In Calgary, for example, I imagine that many of the seats that the Alberta Party would be competitive in would otherwise be seats which would be favourable to the NDP (such as Calgary-Currie and Calgary-Varsity).

I would caution against directly using federal results to predict provincial results, especially in Alberta. Speaking as an Albertan, my province is very big-C Conservative federally, but a lot of that can still be related to the western populist flavour of the federal Conservatives, and the general feeling that only the CPC will stand up for Alberta's interests. These voting intentions don't always transition over to the provincial level. For example, the city of Lethbridge voted approximately 53% for the NDP provincially in 2015, yet in the federal election, the NDP won very few polls in the city, and the Conservative candidate won the Lethbridge riding (which, to be fair, contains rural Lethbridge County in addition to the city) with 56%. Every poll in the West Lethbridge section of the city (everything west of the Oldman River) went NDP provincially and CPC federally in 2015.

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

True enough, although I doubt there will be a lot of Conservative-NDP crossovers in 2019.  Yes I can see the NDP winning in many areas that went federally Tory thus why I stated over 50% as I suspect most federal Liberal voters will go NDP provincially.  Otherwise essentially the NDP has united the progressive vote and contrary to what some claim generally Alberta is only a 60-40 split in terms of right vs. left.  I understand not everybody follows that but even if just 80% of federal Tory voters support the UCP, that would still be 48% of the popular vote which likely means a win otherwise realistically you would need about 25% of federal Tory voters to crossover which seems rather high.  In BC we used to have a lot of crossover of NDP provincially and Reform federally, but that has largely dissipated as in the case of the Interior much of that vote now goes BC Liberal provincially and likewise most on the Island (there wasn't so much of that in the Lower Mainland) is now going NDP at both levels.

[Njall]

Insights West released this poll of UCP candidate favourability the other day.

Leadership candidate results:
Jeff Callaway: 8% favourable / 10% unfavourable / 81% unsure or don't know who he is
Brian Jean: 44% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 29% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 32% favourable / 34% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Doug Schweitzer: 11% favourable / 17% unfavourable / 61% unsure or don't know who he is

Leadership candidate net favourability based on results above:
Jeff Callaway: -2
Brian Jean: +16
Jason Kenney: -2
Doug Schweitzer: -6

The poll also tested favourability of current party leaders.

Results:
Rachel Notley: 38% favourable / 52% unfavourable / 9% unsure
Nathan Cooper: 30% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 42% unsure
David Khan: 19% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 52% unsure
Greg Clark: 22% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 50% unsure

[mileslunn]

Insights West released this poll of UCP candidate favourability the other day.

Leadership candidate results:
Jeff Callaway: 8% favourable / 10% unfavourable / 81% unsure or don't know who he is
Brian Jean: 44% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 29% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 32% favourable / 34% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Doug Schweitzer: 11% favourable / 17% unfavourable / 61% unsure or don't know who he is

Leadership candidate net favourability based on results above:
Jeff Callaway: -2
Brian Jean: +16
Jason Kenney: -2
Doug Schweitzer: -6

The poll also tested favourability of current party leaders.

Results:
Rachel Notley: 38% favourable / 52% unfavourable / 9% unsure
Nathan Cooper: 30% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 42% unsure
David Khan: 19% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 52% unsure
Greg Clark: 22% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 50% unsure

If the party is serious about winning they should chose Brian Jean as opposed to Jason Kenney as I think Jean would fare better. Doug Schweitzer is interesting as although his tax cuts might be controversial, he is socially progressive so would take away the attacks there and it's probably in Edmonton his tax plan is more likely to run into opposition, in Calgary its more the social conservatism where the UCP could run into trouble.

Surprised Greg Clark has a negative rating as he seems quite reasonable.  Is Alberta just become so polarized that the right dislike anyone not proposing massive spending cuts while left hates anyone who opposes any fiscal restraint?  His policies seem quite balanced that involve competitive taxes, controlling spending to bring about a balanced budget over 4 years without front line service cuts.

[DC Al Fine]

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

The main take away I got from your list is how tough a situation the NDP is in.

It looks like they'll need to hold on to their 2015 voters AND hold off the Liberals/Alberta party AND take some folks from the UCP to even manage a small loss in the popular vote. Even then I raised an eyebrow at a couple of your picks (e.g. I really doubt the NDP win Medicine Hat against a united right unless they have a decent sized win). I'm not writing them off (this is Canada after all ), but I suspect the result will look something like 1993. The progressives will sweep or near sweep Edmonton, win a handful of other seats, but the Tories will still maintain a comfortable majority.

[mileslunn]

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

The main take away I got from your list is how tough a situation the NDP is in.

It looks like they'll need to hold on to their 2015 voters AND hold off the Liberals/Alberta party AND take some folks from the UCP to even manage a small loss in the popular vote. Even then I raised an eyebrow at a couple of your picks (e.g. I really doubt the NDP win Medicine Hat against a united right unless they have a decent sized win). I'm not writing them off (this is Canada after all ), but I suspect the result will look something like 1993. The progressives will sweep or near sweep Edmonton, win a handful of other seats, but the Tories will still maintain a comfortable majority.

I tend to agree.  Outside of the two main cities the two Lethbridge ridings, Sherwood Park, and St. Albert are the only four I think they have decent shots in and the first two have a large university population while the latter are suburbs of Edmonton.  In Calgary, they will probably win a few in the central parts of the city which have a younger population and are more left leaning, but not much beyond that.  The Southern part they struggled even before merging so expect the UCP to win big in the area of Harper and Kenney's federal riding.  The West and Northwest are pretty solid while Northeast and East it depends on how well the NDP does amongst ethnic groups although I think Kenney is pretty solid with them so would probably win there even if those areas might vote Liberal federally.  Edmonton I agree will probably go largely NDP although I think if they chose Jean, the UCP have a good shot at picking up some of the suburban ones particularly in the Southwestern part of the city while with Kenney a sweep is more likely.  He does as well in Calgary as Jean, but in Edmonton most polls show Jean being fairly competitive with the NDP, but Kenney well back.

[Njall]

The 42 seats that I listed out should be within the NDP's grasp if they can retain their support in urban Alberta, plus a couple of rural seats (Lesser Slave Lake, Banff-Stoney, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose) that have special factors affecting them, particularly above-average indigenous populations. Granted, it would be tough, and their polling numbers would have to improve, but it is at least within the realm of possibility.

The main take away I got from your list is how tough a situation the NDP is in.

It looks like they'll need to hold on to their 2015 voters AND hold off the Liberals/Alberta party AND take some folks from the UCP to even manage a small loss in the popular vote. Even then I raised an eyebrow at a couple of your picks (e.g. I really doubt the NDP win Medicine Hat against a united right unless they have a decent sized win). I'm not writing them off (this is Canada after all ), but I suspect the result will look something like 1993. The progressives will sweep or near sweep Edmonton, win a handful of other seats, but the Tories will still maintain a comfortable majority.

I tend to agree.  Outside of the two main cities the two Lethbridge ridings, Sherwood Park, and St. Albert are the only four I think they have decent shots in and the first two have a large university population while the latter are suburbs of Edmonton.  In Calgary, they will probably win a few in the central parts of the city which have a younger population and are more left leaning, but not much beyond that.  The Southern part they struggled even before merging so expect the UCP to win big in the area of Harper and Kenney's federal riding.  The West and Northwest are pretty solid while Northeast and East it depends on how well the NDP does amongst ethnic groups although I think Kenney is pretty solid with them so would probably win there even if those areas might vote Liberal federally.  Edmonton I agree will probably go largely NDP although I think if they chose Jean, the UCP have a good shot at picking up some of the suburban ones particularly in the Southwestern part of the city while with Kenney a sweep is more likely.  He does as well in Calgary as Jean, but in Edmonton most polls show Jean being fairly competitive with the NDP, but Kenney well back.

I largely agree with you both. I would say not to underestimate how the NDP might do in east and northeast Calgary, especially in Calgary-Cross, where Ricardo Miranda has been a visible and popular Cabinet Minister. Miranda's margin of victory in 2015 is deceptively close, and only got that close because the PC candidate was Rick Hanson, who was the Chief of Police until he was recruited as a candidate by Prentice, and who had led a large-scale outreach effort to build positive relations between the police and ethnic communities in Calgary's northeast. In Calgary generally, I think that an NDP performance that largely mirrors the Liberals in 2008 is fairly readily achievable, but it'll be a challenge to expand beyond that.

Based on the interim reports, I also think that the results of the electoral boundaries commission will help give the NDP a bit of a boost, due to the extra seat that will be added to each of Calgary and Edmonton at the expense of rural seats, as well as due to shifted boundaries in some other parts of the province.

Expanding a bit on a few of the "unconventional" seats I identified that could also be held by the NDP...:

Grande Prairie: the boundaries commission appears set to create an entirely-urban seat in Grande Prairie. While the NDP didn't win either of the "rurban" Grande Prairie seats in 2015, I believe that they got enough votes in the city itself to have won an urban seat if it had existed. Winning this seat will still be a stretch, but creating the urban seat will at least make for a competitive race.

Lesser Slave Lake: this seat is the only Albertan seat which has a population that is majority indigenous (I believe around 54% of the population is indigenous). While Pearl Calahasen held the seat for a long time for the PCs, she was advantaged in part by coming from the area's Metis community (four of Alberta's eight Metis settlements are within the riding). As I'm sure we all know on this forum, indigenous voters tend to heavily favour the NDP over conservative parties, and that trend along with the riding's demographics and the fact that the MLA is a fairly well-known Cabinet Minister makes it competitive.

Wetaskiwin-Camrose: Bruce Hinkley won with 43% in 2015, ahead of many other rural NDP MLAs. Additionally, the boundaries commission appears set to unite the four Maskwacis Cree nations within the riding (currently, only two of the four are within the riding), and these four indigenous nations represent potentially the strongest NDP polls in the province, with the NDP earning a combined 95% of the vote there in 2015. Wetaskiwin-Camrose already had a relatively-high indigenous population (around 15%), and this will further boost it. I'm unsure how Hinkley is viewed on the ground in his riding, but between the high indigenous population, and the general population concentration in the cities of Wetaskiwin and Camrose as opposed to the rural parts of the riding, I see the NDP still being competitive here in 2019.

Banff-Stoney: this is especially contingent on the choices of the boundaries commission. However, in the interim report, the commission recommended changing the boundaries of Banff-Cochrane by removing Cochrane, and adding a portion of Rocky View County in addition to the Tsuu T'ina nation. These changes are important because Cochrane was the conservative anchor of the riding - the NDP only won about 34% here in 2015. In the rest of the riding, the NDP won 54% of the vote, including 56% in Canmore and 61% in Banff. By removing Cochrane, and replacing it in-part with an indigenous community, the commission is likely creating a riding where the NDP won over 50% of the vote in 2015, making them favoured here for 2019.

St. Albert-Redwater: this proposed seat combines St. Albert with the NDP-favouring southern portion of the current Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater riding, which makes it friendlier to the NDP than either of the current Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater or Spruce Grove-St. Albert ridings.

[adma]

As I'm sure we all know on this forum, indigenous voters tend to heavily favour the NDP over conservative parties,

When it comes to the Metis, especially, the favour swings more "non-Conservative" than NDP per se; and has more often than not echoed (federally, at least) the traditional Acadian or Franco-Ontarian lean t/w the Liberals--think of a seat like Provencher in Manitoba...

[Lotuslander]

Insights West released this poll of UCP candidate favourability the other day.

Leadership candidate results:
Jeff Callaway: 8% favourable / 10% unfavourable / 81% unsure or don't know who he is
Brian Jean: 44% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 29% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 32% favourable / 34% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Doug Schweitzer: 11% favourable / 17% unfavourable / 61% unsure or don't know who he is

Leadership candidate net favourability based on results above:
Jeff Callaway: -2
Brian Jean: +16
Jason Kenney: -2
Doug Schweitzer: -6

The poll also tested favourability of current party leaders.

Results:
Rachel Notley: 38% favourable / 52% unfavourable / 9% unsure
Nathan Cooper: 30% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 42% unsure
David Khan: 19% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 52% unsure
Greg Clark: 22% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 50% unsure

Insights West (opt-in online methodology) one day... and then Mainstreet Research (IVR) with similar favourability rating question but with different results. Who to believe? -

Brian Jean: 48% favourable / 19% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 39% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 32% unsure or don't know who he is
Nathan Cooper: 10% favourable / 5% unfavourable / 85% unsure or don't know who he is
Rachel Notley: 26% favourable / 60% unfavourable / 14% unsure or don't know who she is

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/mcdavid-wins-alberta-popularity-contest/

[mileslunn]

Insights West released this poll of UCP candidate favourability the other day.

Leadership candidate results:
Jeff Callaway: 8% favourable / 10% unfavourable / 81% unsure or don't know who he is
Brian Jean: 44% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 29% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 32% favourable / 34% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Doug Schweitzer: 11% favourable / 17% unfavourable / 61% unsure or don't know who he is

Leadership candidate net favourability based on results above:
Jeff Callaway: -2
Brian Jean: +16
Jason Kenney: -2
Doug Schweitzer: -6

The poll also tested favourability of current party leaders.

Results:
Rachel Notley: 38% favourable / 52% unfavourable / 9% unsure
Nathan Cooper: 30% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 42% unsure
David Khan: 19% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 52% unsure
Greg Clark: 22% favourable / 28% unfavourable / 50% unsure

Insights West (opt-in online methodology) one day... and then Mainstreet Research (IVR) with similar favourability rating question but with different results. Who to believe? -

Brian Jean: 48% favourable / 19% unfavourable / 34% unsure or don't know who he is
Jason Kenney: 39% favourable / 29% unfavourable / 32% unsure or don't know who he is
Nathan Cooper: 10% favourable / 5% unfavourable / 85% unsure or don't know who he is
Rachel Notley: 26% favourable / 60% unfavourable / 14% unsure or don't know who she is

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/mcdavid-wins-alberta-popularity-contest/

I take the averages.  Essentially both show that Brian Jean is fairly popular so if the party wants to guarantee a win they would be best to choose him.  Jason Kenney is more divisive although he would probably still win a general election.  Both Jean and Kenney would likely dominate Rural Alberta and Calgary, but Edmonton is where the big difference would occur.  Notley would probably beat both in Edmonton but at least with Jean they would likely win seats there whereas with Kenney they risk a shutout.

Both show Notley with fairly negative ratings and compared to other premiers it is not as bad as Kathleen Wynne, so if she pulls off a surprise win next year (not likely, but you never know) then she might have hope, while similar to both Harper and Christy Clark.  The former lost pretty badly while the latter almost won mind you Horgan was much less known and his approval was more mixed not positive like Jean.

[DC Al Fine]

Which seats would the Alberta Party be expected to overperform in besides Calgary Elbow? I'm assuming seats with lots of well off folks who don't like right wing parties' populism and/or religiosity, but unfortunately I don't know which seats those are in Alberta

[mileslunn]

Which seats would the Alberta Party be expected to overperform in besides Calgary Elbow? I'm assuming seats with lots of well off folks who don't like right wing parties' populism and/or religiosity, but unfortunately I don't know which seats those are in Alberta

Mostly in Calgary, but cannot think of any off the top of my head.  If they get only in the teens in Calgary, probably no other seats or random one, but if they crack the 20% mark there you could see a few others flip.  Probably ones closest to the central part of the city as those areas tend to be wary of more right wing parties, but are fairly centrists rather than left leaning.

[Njall]

Which seats would the Alberta Party be expected to overperform in besides Calgary Elbow? I'm assuming seats with lots of well off folks who don't like right wing parties' populism and/or religiosity, but unfortunately I don't know which seats those are in Alberta

Mostly in Calgary, but cannot think of any off the top of my head.  If they get only in the teens in Calgary, probably no other seats or random one, but if they crack the 20% mark there you could see a few others flip.  Probably ones closest to the central part of the city as those areas tend to be wary of more right wing parties, but are fairly centrists rather than left leaning.

We've been finding that education is better as a party performance metric than income, but those two metrics tend to have at least a rough correlation themselves. Anyhow, largely because of the fact that Greg Clark comes from Calgary, I would agree that the most likely over performing seats for the AP would also come from Calgary. Specifically, the AP would be likely, at least in theory, to over perform in Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-Varsity, and possibly Calgary-Glenmore. The big issue for the AP is that several of these seats are also amongst the strongest theoretical seats for the NDP in Calgary, and in a polarized election, I could see centrists and mild progressives voting to re-elect the NDP in order to keep the UCP out of office.

Outside of Calgary, there would also be some chances for the AP to over perform in parts of Edmonton, and in Alberta's smaller cities. In a contrast to Calgary, where the AP's best chances roughly mirror the NDP's, in Edmonton I'd say that the AP's best chances roughly mirror those of the UCP, so the more affluent suburban ridings of southwest and west Edmonton (as well as perhaps satellite cities like St. Albert). I would also say that the historic Liberal voting trend in Lethbridge-East, as well as 2015 over performances by the ALP in Red Deer-North and the AP in Grande Prairie-Wapiti indicate the potential for stronger performances in the smaller cities.