Describe what a Democrats' path to winning a majority of counties looks like

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

... In 2020. Use maps if possible. Also, what Democrats could win a majority of counties or come close without having to win in a massive landslide?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Trump decides that corn and wheat subsidies are low energy, and that he's going to make abortion mandatory.

[Kamala]

Trump decides that corn and wheat subsidies are low energy, and that he's going to make abortion mandatory.

Ugh, finally, a candidate for people like me!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Trump decides that corn and wheat subsidies are low energy, and that he's going to make abortion mandatory.

Ugh, finally, a candidate for people like me!

Nothing like a 0 child policy

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Heading into the home stretch of the 2020 election, the Presidency appears likely to be a nail biter. The smoking ruins of the economy are certain to hurt Trump's chances. But the recent, terrifying war with China seems to be helping him. So are the GOP's widespread and successful voter suppression efforts. Circumstances have lead to a very centrist and pro-military Democratic ticket by 21st century standards.

Six weeks before the election, unimpeachable evidence is released of Trump colluding with Russian intelligence to kill several thousand US sailors in the South China Sea in the incident that led to the current war with China. The Trump-run GOP declares it's all fake and tries to prosecute anyone distributing it, escalating an authoritarian crackdown on dissent that began much earlier.

Three weeks before the election Trump's campaign of denial is failing spectacularly. Crowds are burning him in effigy nation-wide. In an attempt to save their own skins Jared and Ivanka, along with several other members of Trump's inner circle, testify to Congress and release their own personal records confirming Trump's treason and show Trump privately calling his supporters "suckers" and "stupid hicks" while laughing. The GOP-controlled House begins impeachment proceedings. Trump tries and fails to shut down Congress and declare martial law. His approval rating is still at 28% nationally.

The week leading up to the election is tense as acting-President Pence tries to manage various disasters, while negotiating with and Trump his loyalists. They are holding the White House hostage, threatening to burn it to the ground unless they are given a billion dollars, full pardons, and asylum in a neutral country.  Motivated by fear of what an incoming Dem administration will do, Trump's last supporters have a bloody struggle inside the White House that ends with Trump being handed over to the military and police forces surrounding the White House around noon on election day, in return for pardons from Pence.

The Democrats are announced as winning a majority of counties later than evening.

[PragmaticPopulist]

A farming crisis on the scale of the 80s farming crisis hits everywhere, and Trump ignores it all. Republicans are blamed and Democrats make major inroads in the corn belt. The Appalachian states become much less reliant on coal, and instead get a huge boost in wind power, but Trump continues to try propping up the coal industry too no avail.

[Liberalrocks]

A tape of Trump in Russia pre-2016 titled "Golden Showers Play" is released 11days before the 2020 vote.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think a more realistic scenario where the Democratic nominee wins a majority of counties (and without winning in a landslide) would be that some version of Trumpcare is passed, and it hits Appalachia hard. then in 2020, an unpopular Trump faces a moderate Southern populist Democrat (Ala Joe Manchin or John Bel Edwards). The Democrat only wins by about 5%, but still wins a majority of counties.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The resignation and mass ritual suicide of the entire GOP Party apparatus.

[SingingAnalyst]

1. (Most Likely) A scenario similar to 1912 where the Democrat beats Trump and a serious conservative independent 45/25/20.  

2. (Next Most Likely) The economy of 1932, with most commodity prices 1/10th of what they are today.

3. (Far Less Likely) $10 oil + a new farm crisis + state abortion bans upheld by SCOTUS and a Dem nominee like JBE or Manchin.  The PV is within single digits, but most rural areas vote left of the country.

I agree with the relative order of these scenarios, but I'm not sure the Dem would win a majority of counties in Scenario 1, even if they won the PV by 20 points. There is a whole swath of counties in Middle America that gave Clinton < 30% in 2016.

[Beet]

The Democrats nominate Maxine Waters and she picks Linda Sarsour as her running mate. Trump/Pence appears headed for a landslide win until election night, when the results appear to show the Waters/Sarsour ticket winning a landslide and most counties. After 12 hours of bedlam, a 400 pound man emerges from his mom's basement in New Jersey and reveals he hacked the election. Trump tweets "Election hacking is a very serious crime!" and the man is locked up in solitary for life. No one knows the actual results but everyone assumes Trump won so he is sworn in again.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Not possible. Dems only care about 1 or 2 counties in most states.

[Voice of low info America]

Split up urban counties.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

1. Flip on abortion and gun rights.
2. Make a full-throated embrace of farm and small-town manufacturing subsidies.
3. Run against a very unpopular and socially liberal Republican

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think a more realistic scenario where the Democratic nominee wins a majority of counties (and without winning in a landslide) would be that some version of Trumpcare is passed, and it hits Appalachia hard. then in 2020, an unpopular Trump faces a moderate Southern populist Democrat (Ala Joe Manchin or John Bel Edwards). The Democrat only wins by about 5%, but still wins a majority of counties.

A 2008 margin for JBE or Manchin might do it, but how do they get out of the primary in 2020?  I could see it in 2028 if Dems keep losing the WH until then, but not this soon.

Well, I could see someone like John Bel Edwards winning if it's a large field and he has a monopoly on the Southern States + the Plains states. His path to victory in the primary would be similar to Trump's 2016 path to victory in the GOP primary

[Coraxion]

The resignation and mass ritual suicide of the entire GOP Party apparatus.

[pbrower2a]

Without a landslide like that of FDR in 1936... no way.

Roughly 65 counties (including the Boroughs of New York City), 'independent cities', and the District of Columbia decided the 2008 election, Barack Obama losing the rest of America. The criterion of inclusion of those counties was population density. It was easy for people to look at the 2008 map and ask how Obama could have won.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

1. Flip on abortion and gun rights.
2. Make a full-throated embrace of farm and small-town manufacturing subsidies.
3. Run against a very unpopular and socially liberal Republican

This could be very significant by itself.  In most EU countries, farm subsidies are at least 3X what they are in the US for an average farm family with an average-sized farm/ranch.  In Scandinavia, they are 5X-7X the typical US level.  That is approaching the median income in many of those countries.  In France and the UK, the rural areas seemed fairly evenly split between left and right in the competitive elections they had this year.  In a close Scandinavian election, rural areas vote overwhelmingly for the left and the cities narrowly for the right (they are each dominated by a single city to about the same degree New York State is).

I don't know about that. A small minority of Americans in rural areas are actually farmers. Most work in other industries.

[Ruby2014]

Run a candidate like Joe Donnelly. Dems have gone too far left.

[The Govanah Jake]

The only way this happens is if the Dems win 500 plus electoral votes and that will only happen if either Trump falls to new lows (Say single digit approval rating) and does some crazy sh**t (Shot someone on fifth avenue) and is caught on tape saying everyone who voted for him are idiots and fools) or if a third party conservative party is able to split Trumps vote.

[houseonaboat]

You would need a serious third party conservative candidate, someone who uniquely appeals to traditional evangelical voters. And even then I don't see it changing much.

But with two major candidates, and the parties running on loosely similar platforms ? I don't see a path to victory for a Demcorat.

[NOVA Green]

1. Flip on abortion and gun rights.
2. Make a full-throated embrace of farm and small-town manufacturing subsidies.
3. Run against a very unpopular and socially liberal Republican

This could be very significant by itself.  In most EU countries, farm subsidies are at least 3X what they are in the US for an average farm family with an average-sized farm/ranch.  In Scandinavia, they are 5X-7X the typical US level.  That is approaching the median income in many of those countries.  In France and the UK, the rural areas seemed fairly evenly split between left and right in the competitive elections they had this year.  In a close Scandinavian election, rural areas vote overwhelmingly for the left and the cities narrowly for the right (they are each dominated by a single city to about the same degree New York State is).

I don't know about that. A small minority of Americans in rural areas are actually farmers. Most work in other industries.

That is technically true, but I think you are way underestimating the impact of the agricultural sector in rural communities if you look at it simply as the number or percentage of farmers in rural areas.

For example, there are only 4,000 Cranberry "farmers" in Wisconsin, and yet it is a Billion Dollar a year Industry in Wisconsin.

Meanwhile Cranberry prices have fallen 50% since 2009, mainly because of competition from Canadian Cranberry farmers (This is a similar situation in places like Oregon and Maine).

You have a ton of money going to state and local government coffers as a result of the agricultural sector, which does everything from funding schools, law enforcement, county government, a ton of individuals who supply goods and services, people directly employed by farmers, entire rural commercial centers based upon the wealth produced by farmers....

How many dairy farmers are there in the United States--- not necessarily a ton. Yet the dairy industry has seen commodity prices collapse, with no reprieve in site. Is it just a coincidence that dairy producing counties swung heavily towards Trump in '16, believing that somehow he might be able to stop the collapse?

No--- Skill & Chance is on the mark here---- many rural counties are currently experiencing a crisis on a level not seen since the 1980s because of a dramatic collapse in commodity prices.

They have tried to export there way out of it, but are getting hit really hard on the margins, and it is something that the politicians in both political parties have not been addressing, unlike during the Farm Crisis of the 1980s.

Democrats need to be at the forefront of presenting a "Modern New Deal" for small family farmers of America, instead of letting the Republican Party dominate the discussion solely on image and not substance.