Demographics of 2020 election if Trump runs again

[SingingAnalyst]

In 2016 whites without a college degree were far more likely than whites with a college degree to vote GOP; in 2012 the difference between the two groups was much smaller.

In 2012, the wealthiest Americans were much more likely than lower-income Americans to vote GOP; in 2016 the difference was significantly smaller.

Which election will 2020 resemble demographically? I say 2016.

[dw93]

2012. A lot of Working class Whites in the Rust Belt are going to abandon Trump as thus far he's trying to govern as a run of the mill Republican and has thus far proved to be incompetent. Iif the Democrats nominate an economic populist, I can see some of the McCain/Romney/Clinton voters going third party or reluctantly backing Trump.

[Neoliberal Shill]

2012. A lot of Working class Whites in the Rust Belt are going to abandon Trump as thus far he's trying to govern as a run of the mill Republican and has thus far proved to be incompetent. Iif the Democrats nominate an economic populist, I can see some of the McCain/Romney/Clinton voters going third party or reluctantly backing Trump.

If they nominate someone like Biden, Harris, or Klobuchar, I can see a sort of hybrid scenario happening, in which Dems win back MI, PA, and probably WI, but also win FL, NC, AZ and maybe GA.