California primary: Donald Trump vs. Fred Karger

[Woke Frenzy]

Fred Karger was a minor contestant for Republican nominee for president in 2012, being the first openly gay presidential candidate in a major political party in American history. What if only Trump and Karger are on the ballot in the California Republican primary, what will be the results? What would the county map look like? Could Karger become Trump's Judd?

[Woke Frenzy]

The Republican primary in California is modified-open, right?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Unless Trump's approval among Republicans slips substantially, or he is not President in 2020, I don't see any other GOP candidate winning any counties in the 2020 primaries. Karger would MAYBE get 25-30% of the vote in and around San Fran, and maybe a decent amount in traditionally Republican Orange County. 

[I'm a prince to the grifters, I turn apostles to pimps]

Karger would struggle to get 5% of the vote, and that's being generous.

[Woke Frenzy]

Karger would struggle to get 5% of the vote, and that's being generous.

No. Simply no. If only those two candidates are on the ballot, Karger would perform well.
This race would remind me of Obama vs. Judd race in West Virginia in 2012, where Judd received over 40% of the vote. Karger would approximately perform like that.

[I'm a prince to the grifters, I turn apostles to pimps]

Karger would struggle to get 5% of the vote, and that's being generous.

No. Simply no. If only those two candidates are on the ballot, Karger would perform well.
This race would remind me of Obama vs. Judd race in West Virginia in 2012, where Judd received over 40% of the vote. Karger would approximately perform like that.

Republicans in California =/= Democrats in West Virginia. Fred Karger is still an "outsider" to the GOP, and the California GOP is somewhat elitist. The party is completely on-board with Trump now that he has his incumbency. Democrats in WV voted for Judd because they were less receptive to Obama's policies.