Harris vs. Booker vs. Biden 2020 Primary Map?
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  Harris vs. Booker vs. Biden 2020 Primary Map?
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Author Topic: Harris vs. Booker vs. Biden 2020 Primary Map?  (Read 684 times)
The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
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« on: July 09, 2017, 01:40:08 PM »

You would expect Harris and Booker to appeal to a somewhat similar electorate. What would the 2020 Democratic primary map look like, assuming that Harris, Biden, and Booker are far and away the frontrunners after the Iowa primary and all other candidates drop out? Would Harris and Booker split the minority vote so that Biden could win in the South?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2017, 04:28:46 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2017, 12:49:10 AM by L.D. Smith »

It's entirely possible that the male vote gets split too ya' know. Also Harris is quite a bit of ways to the left of both Booker and Biden.

My assumption atm, if this IS what the field is that Biden takes Iowa, Harris takes Nevada and NH, and SC could go to Booker or Harris depending on how bad police brutality gets.

Super Tuesday likely favors Booker, but from there it gets difficult. Harris should be able to take The Southwest and Coast, and Biden likely has the advantage in Bernie country. But if even one person drops out.... all changes.

My guess



Booker
Harris
Biden
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UWS
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« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2017, 06:28:43 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2017, 06:31:12 AM by UWS »


Biden appeals to the WWC and wins the states Sanders won with a couple more Washington is a tough one but Biden narrowly edges out a victory Booker does extremely well in the south but doesn't do so well outside of the south  Harris preforms well in California and neighboring states but can't reach out that much I believe Biden will win the nomination



Is Biden blue or red on this map?

Because if he's blue and Booker is red, how does Booker win Biden's home state of Delaware?

On the other hand, if Biden is red while Booker is blue on this map, why did Biden win Booker's home state of New Jersey? Because Booker dropped out before the New Jersey primary?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2017, 09:48:41 AM »

If Harris really tries to run as a progressive she would win the states that Sanders won overwhelmingly. Biden would most likely win WV and other states like that
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nicholas.slaydon
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2017, 11:19:00 AM »

Biden
Harris
Booker



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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2017, 11:28:46 AM »

I actually don't think it's that likely that Biden and Harris both end up among the top three contenders.  One or the other of them will probably end up dominating the black vote, and that person will end up winning most of the South and other states w/ a large %age of black voters.  And I don't think it's a given that Booker is the one who does that.  It could easily be Harris.  Yet so far, every map posted in this thread has Booker as the one winning the Deep South.

On the off chance that Booker and Harris split the black vote nearly evenly, then neither will likely end up winning very many states, as some other candidate will be able to get a plurality victory in many of those states with reasonably large black populations.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2017, 06:09:00 PM »

This is my personal prediction. I seem to be a little more generous to Harris state-wise than in most projections.



Fmr. VP/Sen. Joseph Biden (38.7%)
Sen. Cory Booker (31.9%)
Sen. Kamala Harris (29.4%)

Biden wins with large margins among less educated and rural white voters in the Midwest, Mountain West, and Plains. Booker typically beats Harris among less educated minority voters (the only except being in the Southwest) while Harris wins more educated and more affluent minority voters, as well performing well among educated whites along the West Coast and in the Northeast/Southwest. Booker narrowly wins in southern states with high black populations, although states like NC/GA/VA could go either way. Texas is very competitive, with the vote being split almost into perfect third but with Booker having a slight edge, doing the best in the biggest urban areas. New York, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Illinois, North Carolina, Virginia, and Missouri would likely be the closet states, along with Texas.
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