MO-Remington: GOP sweep

[Suburbia]

Why don't we try Jay Nixon again? McCaskill is in critical condition, and could transition to DOA without much difficulty, we don't have much to lose that is not already tilting towards the lost side. It's time for drastic actions.

Just accept that Missouri is gone for Dems.

Why is Missouri gone for the Democratic Party? They could win in the middle of the state if they run good candidates.

[Fudotei]

Why don't we try Jay Nixon again? McCaskill is in critical condition, and could transition to DOA without much difficulty, we don't have much to lose that is not already tilting towards the lost side. It's time for drastic actions.

Just accept that Missouri is gone for Dems.

Why is Missouri gone for the Democratic Party? They could win in the middle of the state if they run good candidates.

I don't think Missouri's people have gotten a whole lot more conservative (though the suburbs outside STL probably have) -- St Louis has experienced fierce population decline and so democrats in that state have to balance the urban machines and the rural outreach that you need.

Jay Nixon could do it (blue dog that he was, cut the budget). The trick for Missouri Democrats is getting the primary vote from the KC area and not completely alienating everything in between. But it's an extremely rapid change and votes that existed in St Louis City don't exist anymore. In the meantime, elected officials like McCaskill are having a real trouble adjusting.

[Rjjr77]

Why don't we try Jay Nixon again? McCaskill is in critical condition, and could transition to DOA without much difficulty, we don't have much to lose that is not already tilting towards the lost side. It's time for drastic actions.

Just accept that Missouri is gone for Dems.

Why is Missouri gone for the Democratic Party? They could win in the middle of the state if they run good candidates.

I don't think Missouri's people have gotten a whole lot more conservative (though the suburbs outside STL probably have) -- St Louis has experienced fierce population decline and so democrats in that state have to balance the urban machines and the rural outreach that you need.

Jay Nixon could do it (blue dog that he was, cut the budget). The trick for Missouri Democrats is getting the primary vote from the KC area and not completely alienating everything in between. But it's an extremely rapid change and votes that existed in St Louis City don't exist anymore. In the meantime, elected officials like McCaskill are having a real trouble adjusting.

Missouri's people haven't gotten more conservative, their democrat party just went too liberal for them.missouri is KC and STL with Mississippi in between, and the blue dogs died in Missouri, they were killed by the state party.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I got a pledged vote for McCaskill over the weekend, you are welcome McCaskill fans.

[Sir Mohamed]

Still very early, but the numbers should be better. I'm not exactly sure who is the most vulnerable Dem in 2018, either McCaskill or Donnelly I guess. Maybe former Governor Jay Nixon would have a better shot at winning this race. But I doubt McCaskill will face a serious primary challenge.

[jamestroll]

Please no Jay Nixon.

Please no Jason Kander.

Come to think of it the Democrats best candidate may actually be State Senator Scott Sifton.

McCaskill is in trouble obviously but not DOA yet. But this has been explained 100 times.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Please no Jay Nixon.

Please no Jason Kander.

Come to think of it the Democrats best candidate may actually be State Senator Scott Sifton.

McCaskill is in trouble obviously but not DOA yet. But this has been explained 100 times.

Kander is the only candidate who could turn this race into a Toss-Up. With McCaskill it is Likely R, and a lot closer to Safe R than Lean R.

[jamestroll]

Please no Jay Nixon.

Please no Jason Kander.

Come to think of it the Democrats best candidate may actually be State Senator Scott Sifton.

McCaskill is in trouble obviously but not DOA yet. But this has been explained 100 times.

Kander is the only candidate who could turn this race into a Toss-Up. With McCaskill it is Likely R, and a lot closer to Safe R than Lean R.

You guys here are too obsessed with Jason Kander.

and y'all are sexist! Y'all have McCaskill, Heitkamp and Stabenow as DOA yet think Tester and Brown are totally safe.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Please no Jay Nixon.

Please no Jason Kander.

Come to think of it the Democrats best candidate may actually be State Senator Scott Sifton.

McCaskill is in trouble obviously but not DOA yet. But this has been explained 100 times.

Kander is the only candidate who could turn this race into a Toss-Up. With McCaskill it is Likely R, and a lot closer to Safe R than Lean R.

You guys here are too obsessed with Jason Kander.

and y'all are sexist! Y'all have McCaskill, Heitkamp and Stabenow as DOA yet think Tester and Brown are totally safe.

I have Heitkamp and Brown at roughly 50-50 odds and Stabenow as a heavy favorite to win.

[Cactus Jack]

Please no Jay Nixon.

Please no Jason Kander.

Come to think of it the Democrats best candidate may actually be State Senator Scott Sifton.

McCaskill is in trouble obviously but not DOA yet. But this has been explained 100 times.

Kander is the only candidate who could turn this race into a Toss-Up. With McCaskill it is Likely R, and a lot closer to Safe R than Lean R.

You guys here are too obsessed with Jason Kander.

and y'all are sexist! Y'all have McCaskill, Heitkamp and Stabenow as DOA yet think Tester and Brown are totally safe.

You can drop the "y'all," please, because I think Heitkamp will win comfortably and Stabenow will sweep no matter who she faces.

The fact really is that Kander would be a better candidate. He's younger, more charismatic, actually made Blunt's reelection bid competitive, and - unlike McCaskill - isn't universally hated in the state.

[Bidenworth2020]

Please no Jay Nixon.

Please no Jason Kander.

Come to think of it the Democrats best candidate may actually be State Senator Scott Sifton.

McCaskill is in trouble obviously but not DOA yet. But this has been explained 100 times.

Kander is the only candidate who could turn this race into a Toss-Up. With McCaskill it is Likely R, and a lot closer to Safe R than Lean R.

You guys here are too obsessed with Jason Kander.

and y'all are sexist! Y'all have McCaskill, Heitkamp and Stabenow as DOA yet think Tester and Brown are totally safe.

You can drop the "y'all," please, because I think Heitkamp will win comfortably and Stabenow will sweep no matter who she faces.

The fact really is that Kander would be a better candidate. He's younger, more charismatic, actually made Blunt's reelection bid competitive, and - unlike McCaskill - isn't universally hated in the state.

why do people always say McCaskill is so unpopular, when according to morning consult she has a 46% approval, with 38% dissaproving

[Young Conservative]

Please no Jay Nixon.

Please no Jason Kander.

Come to think of it the Democrats best candidate may actually be State Senator Scott Sifton.

McCaskill is in trouble obviously but not DOA yet. But this has been explained 100 times.

Kander is the only candidate who could turn this race into a Toss-Up. With McCaskill it is Likely R, and a lot closer to Safe R than Lean R.

You guys here are too obsessed with Jason Kander.

and y'all are sexist! Y'all have McCaskill, Heitkamp and Stabenow as DOA yet think Tester and Brown are totally safe.

You can drop the "y'all," please, because I think Heitkamp will win comfortably and Stabenow will sweep no matter who she faces.

The fact really is that Kander would be a better candidate. He's younger, more charismatic, actually made Blunt's reelection bid competitive, and - unlike McCaskill - isn't universally hated in the state.

why do people always say McCaskill is so unpopular, when according to morning consult she has a 46% approval, with 38% dissaproving

1. MC is incumbent friendly.
2. That's a poor rating for a senator.
3. She's too liberal for her state, which will come out in the campaign.

[Bidenworth2020]

1. MC is incumbent friendly.(no it is not-Kander loses by 3.2 points)
2. That's a poor rating for a senator.-(i mean, it is not THAT bad.)
3. She's too liberal for her state, which will come out in the campaign.(um... she is second most moderate dem according to national journal

[Lachi]

I wouldn't put too much stock into this poll:
1. It's a year and a half till the election.
2. Remington leans to the GOP
3. Akin was beating McCaskill by more than this according to the polls at around the same point away from the election.

[Politician]

LOL, this didn't age well!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LOL, this didn't age well!

GRRRRRRH you made me think this was just from now.

[IceSpear]

Polls a year and a half in advance of the election are totes useful.

Of course, I'm sure that won't stop people from writing Trump's obituary if Dems do well in 2018 and he trails Joe Biden in January 2019 polls.

[Xing]

This would've been more effective if it were November 7th, and McCaskill had already won, but I'm sure that a lot of posts from late 2016 and early 2017 will be bumped that day anyway.

Either way, moral of the story: Making overconfident predictions a year and a half out is never a good idea, and is only asking for a mouth full of crow. McCaskill might still lose, but LOL at how many people thought that it would be a Blanching, or that it was "Likely R and closer to Safe than Lean." People are free to make predictions about 2020, 2022, or whatever year, but shouldn't do so with any degree of confidence, and should acknowledge that such predictions are just guesses.

[TarHeelDem]

Junk poll. Sad!

[Devout Centrist]

Lmao thanks for the laugh.

Bring it home, Claire

[MT Treasurer]

Junk poll. Sad!

It’s funny how all the McCaskill fans keep bumping threads like this to mock Republicans for making overconfident predictions when, uh, McCaskill hasn’t even won yet. Rating the race Likely D is just as ridiculous as rating it Likely R.

[TarHeelDem]

Junk poll. Sad!

It’s funny how all the McCaskill fans keep bumping threads like this to mock Republicans for making overconfident predictions when, uh, McCaskill hasn’t even won yet. Rating the race Likely D is just as ridiculous as rating it Likely R.

It's a solid Lean D.

[MT Treasurer]

Junk poll. Sad!

It’s funny how all the McCaskill fans keep bumping threads like this to mock Republicans for making overconfident predictions when, uh, McCaskill hasn’t even won yet. Rating the race Likely D is just as ridiculous as rating it Likely R.

It's a solid Lean D.

Yeah, with the current polling average for this race, I’d definitely come to the same conclusion. No one should be surprised if McCaskill wins, but I don’t see how she’s suddenly heavily favored.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Female voters are key due to Kavanaugh allegations and Heidi will win. But, Hawley has underperformed in this race😀

[CookieDamage]

Not me thinking this thread was current and rolling my eyes at all the freakouts