Is Wisconsin becoming the new Virginia

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's county by county data(these maps arent using Atlas colors )  :

1988:


1996:



2004:



2008:



2010(Governor):




2012:



2014(Governor) :




2016:





From here it looks like the western parts of the state were what used to flip the state over to the dem (1988, 2004,2012), but it looks like that part is trending heavily to the gop , and without that part it will be very hard for dems to win in Wisconsin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WI is perfectly still within reach for Dems. It just isn't outright dem leaning anymore.

[OSR stands with Israel]

WI is perfectly still within reach for Dems. It just isn't outright dem leaning anymore.

In my opinion WI is lean GOP now . VA in my opinion also good have been in reach for the GOP is they nominated a Kasich, or a Rubio , and not trump .

[The_Doctor]

I'll take a look at Wisconsin tomorrow maybe. Depends on the time I have. But it seems to have tentatively trended towards the GOP better than PA and has a better demographic profile for the GOP. Madison & Milwaukee versus the rest of the state will be interesting to investigate.

Notably, the Wisconsin GOP - at very cursory review - has not established a political dominance on the state level yet that would be akin to the Ohio GOP but it doesn't mean they won't. There's a narrow band of 50-52% wins (only 1 55%+ win for the statewide GOP in WI). They control the legislature, governorship, and one U.S. Senate seat. The Congressional delegation is 5-3 Republican, not necessarily overwhelming dominant.

Notably, while PA 18-29 was DNC (and so was 18-24, although by a 5 point margin), Trump won 18-24 in WI 45-43% (8% going to Johnson). Whites made up 86% of the electorate; 81% in Pennsylvania. So it's a little different there than in PA.

There seems a strong Democratic Party - the question is, is that Democratic Party poised to remain viable or will they wither?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WI is perfectly still within reach for Dems. It just isn't outright dem leaning anymore.

In my opinion WI is lean GOP now . VA in my opinion also good have been in reach for the GOP is they nominated a Kasich, or a Rubio , and not trump .

One election =/= a trend.
If WI votes R again in 2020, then it could probably be considered lean R. But right now it's Pure Tossup on presidential level, on average. Probably anyway.

[The_Doctor]

Hypothesis, which I'll try to work out: Wisconsin remains a battleground state that will hinge on how well the national GOP governs during the Trump era. Pennsylvania has a distinct blue lean and tint. Wisconsin's electorate seems redder and more open to a long term alignment with the GOP than Pennsylvania. I'd give it a very tiny lean GOP right now.

The knife edge of the GOP is going to be tested in 2018 and 2020 and 2022. If the GOP can survive all these three elections, there's an enduring realignment towards the GOP in the Upper Midwest. It probably could be the one of the first states to return to the GOP after the Democrats regain power in the Presidential level. I don't know yet.

Depending on how the GOP plays its cards here, they could maintain the state's political alignment on track to becoming red.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'll admit that Wisconsin is no longer a leans D or likely D state, at least for now. But I'm not convinced its out of reach for Dems. Wisconsin has a long history of progressive politics, but Hillary Clinton was a terrible fit for it. The perception of her being pro-free trade and her wall street connections sealed her fate there.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'll admit that Wisconsin is no longer a leans D or likely D state, at least for now. But I'm not convinced its out of reach for Dems. Wisconsin has a long history of progressive politics, but Hillary Clinton was a terrible fit for it. The perception of her being pro-free trade and her wall street connections sealed her fate there.

then why did Russ Feingold lose. I think Right to Work changed the state of Wisconsin politically to favor the GOP more .

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'll admit that Wisconsin is no longer a leans D or likely D state, at least for now. But I'm not convinced its out of reach for Dems. Wisconsin has a long history of progressive politics, but Hillary Clinton was a terrible fit for it. The perception of her being pro-free trade and her wall street connections sealed her fate there.

then why did Russ Feingold lose. I think Right to Work changed the state of Wisconsin politically to favor the GOP more .

I think all that money poured into the state with no response whatsoever from the Feingold camp couldn't have helped. That being said RTW has hurt Dems in the state probably; but the effect is small most likely.

[BuckeyeNut]

One Presidential loss since Reagan, where the GOP candidate got less than 50% of the vote and only beat the Democrat by 0.77%? Yeah, it's totally Lean R now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

One Presidential loss since Reagan, where the GOP candidate got less than 50% of the vote and only beat the Democrat by 0.77%? Yeah, it's totally Lean R now.

Look at the state since 2010

[libertpaulian]

One Presidential loss since Reagan, where the GOP candidate got less than 50% of the vote and only beat the Democrat by 0.77%? Yeah, it's totally Lean R now.

Agreed, especially given the state's history with progressive causes such as unionization, living wages, etc.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Trump was a bad fit for the state and won anyway should tell that how much WI has changed over the past 8 years. Wisconsin was very democratic for so many years, cause unions in Wisconsin would fund the Democratic apparatus in the state giving the Dem party lots of resources. Now that people are no longer required to pay union fees , dems no longer get the funding they once did thus the amount of resources they have has been reduced.

[BuckeyeNut]

The fact that Trump was a bad fit for the state and won anyway should tell that how much WI has changed over the past 8 years. Wisconsin was very democratic for so many years, cause unions in Wisconsin would fund the Democratic apparatus in the state giving the Dem party lots of resources. Now that people are no longer required to pay union fees , dems no longer get the funding they once did thus the amount of resources they have has been reduced.

Trump was an exceptional fit for the state, as he was for all states in the Rust Belt.

[Lachi]

The fact that Trump was a bad fit for the state and won anyway should tell that how much WI has changed over the past 8 years. Wisconsin was very democratic for so many years, cause unions in Wisconsin would fund the Democratic apparatus in the state giving the Dem party lots of resources. Now that people are no longer required to pay union fees , dems no longer get the funding they once did thus the amount of resources they have has been reduced.

Can you stop being a massive R hack for once?

[Virginiá]

I wasn't around here in 2008 nor paying much attention to politics but I would have to assume that while Virginia was probably an interesting state to watch, you couldn't be confident at the time in thinking what it would become. You need more elections to confirm exactly how far left the state would go and how fast. Likewise with Wisconsin, we need more presidential elections, imo. Ask again on Nov 4th, 2020, and we can see where the chips fall.

My personal opinion is that there is an R trend but not on the scale of Virginia, and it's not clear how far right WI will go.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Trump was a bad fit for the state and won anyway should tell that how much WI has changed over the past 8 years. Wisconsin was very democratic for so many years, cause unions in Wisconsin would fund the Democratic apparatus in the state giving the Dem party lots of resources. Now that people are no longer required to pay union fees , dems no longer get the funding they once did thus the amount of resources they have has been reduced.

Can you stop being a massive R hack for once?

I don't support trump so how can I be a R hack . Also I am telling you the truth ,right to work has hurt the Dems significantly in Wisconsin .

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Trump was a bad fit for the state and won anyway should tell that how much WI has changed over the past 8 years. Wisconsin was very democratic for so many years, cause unions in Wisconsin would fund the Democratic apparatus in the state giving the Dem party lots of resources. Now that people are no longer required to pay union fees , dems no longer get the funding they once did thus the amount of resources they have has been reduced.

Trump was an exceptional fit for the state, as he was for all states in the Rust Belt.

Um no look at the primary result from that state compared to the others . Also Ron Johnson and Scott Walker both outperformed trump in the state

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin is obviously a swing state at the moment.

That said, I'm pretty bullish on the Republicans' long term prospects in the state. Unlike most of the rest of the country, there is very little age gap in voting in Wisconsin, which suggests that over time Wisconsin will likely slowly drift right compared to the mean (assuming the changes in voting will be close to a uniform swing and that the country will remain close to 50/50). As our politics becomes increasingly urban vs rural, apart from the coasts, Wisconsin as a swing state is somewhat misplaced and will probably correct itself.

Of course for all I know the 2028 election will be Jim Webb (D) vs Michael Bloomberg (R) and all the current analysis about demographics and trends will be utter trash.

[GGSETTER]

One Presidential loss since Reagan, where the GOP candidate got less than 50% of the vote and only beat the Democrat by 0.77%? Yeah, it's totally Lean R now.

Don't just look at the Presidential Election look at the State Legislators. It's very red

[Xing]

This fetish some Republicans seem to have with Wisconsin and it being Safe R is a little weird, to be honest.

I'll buy Wisconsin is going the way of Missouri/Arkansas IF several of the following happen:

-Madison loses population
-The population of the WOW counties explodes, and they stay just as Republican as before
-Counties like Sauk and Columbia don't flip back to the Democrats
-Baldwin loses in 2018
-Walker wins by more than he did in 2014
-Trump wins Wisconsin in 2020 by at least 4-5%
-We get more evidence (not just exit polls) suggesting Gen Z voters here are significantly more Republican than Millennials

Honestly, none of these might happen, and if that's the case, I think Wisconsin will be a swing state for the foreseeable future. It's a different state than Iowa.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This fetish some Republicans seem to have with Wisconsin and it being Safe R is a little weird, to be honest.

I'll buy Wisconsin is going the way of Missouri/Arkansas IF several of the following happen:

-Madison loses population
-The population of the WOW counties explodes, and they stay just as Republican as before
-Counties like Sauk and Columbia don't flip back to the Democrats
-Baldwin loses in 2018
-Walker wins by more than he did in 2014
-Trump wins Wisconsin in 2020 by at least 4-5%
-We get more evidence (not just exit polls) suggesting Gen Z voters here are significantly more Republican than Millennials

Honestly, none of these might happen, and if that's the case, I think Wisconsin will be a swing state for the foreseeable future. It's a different state than Iowa.

becoming Republican version of Virginia is way different then it becoming Missouri

[Nyvin]

The reason Virginia went the way that it did is that the fast growing areas of the state were also trending Dem.   

In Wisconsin the fast growing areas are trending Dem as well (Dane and WoW counties).    There is growing portions of the state that are trending GOP, but since their voters are older it's likely they don't have the momentum in the state on their side like Dems did in Virginia.

[RINO Tom]

Wouldn't say the WOW counties are really "trending D" just yet ... sure, Trump lost there, but they were the most Republican part of the state just two years ago and literally provided Walker with his victory.

[Coraxion]

Wississippi will be gone in a cycle or two. Good riddance.