What if... Ronald Reagan vs. George McGovern, 1984

[A18]

McGovern squeaks out a victory in the Democratic primaries.

How big of a blow out is it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reagan cracks 60% and McGovern wins only DC

[Ebowed]

McGovern wins DC; Reagan gets slightly larger lead in the PV.

[MaC]

same electoral map as '72 probably.  McGovern will win one state.

[dazzleman]

same electoral map as '72 probably.  McGovern will win one state.

Keep in mind that Reagan won Massachusetts, the only state that Reagan won.  Reagan also came close to carrying Minnesota, Mondale's home state.  And McGovern did not win his home state of South Dakota against Nixon in 1972, so there's no reason to believe he'd win it in 1984.

All signs point to Reagan carrying all 50 states, and McGovern carrying only those brain-dead nitwits in Washington DC.  Reagan probably would have gotten about 62% of the popular vote.

[skybridge]

These are getting sort of redundant, especially since you just have Reagan win anyway.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

McGovern might win MA.

[dazzleman]

McGovern might win MA.

I doubt he'd win Massachusetts in 1984, without Vietnam as an issue.

If Mondale couldn't carry Massachusetts, I don't see why McGovern would have, under the circumstances of 1984.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

McGovern might win MA.

I doubt he'd win Massachusetts in 1984, without Vietnam as an issue.

If Mondale couldn't carry Massachusetts, I don't see why McGovern would have, under the circumstances of 1984.

Despite that Reagan almost won all 50 states, and MA wasn't close in 1972, the 1972 election was actually more of a landslide.

[dazzleman]

McGovern might win MA.

I doubt he'd win Massachusetts in 1984, without Vietnam as an issue.

If Mondale couldn't carry Massachusetts, I don't see why McGovern would have, under the circumstances of 1984.

Despite that Reagan almost won all 50 states, and MA wasn't close in 1972, the 1972 election was actually more of a landslide.

That's true.  I think McGovern carried Massachusetts 55-45, or something like that.  But in 1984, Reagan carried Massachusetts 51-48, and I can't find any reason to think McGovern would have done better than Mondale in 1984, without the Vietnam War.

I find it funny that Nixon carried Rhode Island in 1972, even while Massachusetts wasn't close.  I have always thought of those states as very similar politically, and can only imagine them being carried by different candidates if both states are very close.

1980 was another time Massachusetts and Rhode Island didn't vote the same, with Carter carrying Rhode Island by a decent margin, and Reagan narrowly carrying Massachusetts.

[A18]

These are getting sort of redundant, especially since you just have Reagan win anyway.

I'm waiting for Scoonie to show up and say McGovern would have a 'great chance.'

[Virginian87]

These are getting sort of redundant, especially since you just have Reagan win anyway.

I'm waiting for Scoonie to show up and say McGovern would have a 'great chance.'

Haha, more like jfern and phknrocket.  Taking nothing away from my fellow Democrats on the forum, it's time to face reality.  George. Would. be. buried.

[Lincoln Republican]

Ronald Reagan          535     65%
George McGovern          3     35%

Being kind to McGovern

[SingingAnalyst]

Sen. Kennedy campaigns tirelessly for McGovern in MA and, without the association with Jimmy Carter, McGovern carries MA 50.0% to 49.6%. McGovern however does worse in the south than Mondale did.

McGovern 16 EV / 39%
Reagan 522 EV / 60%

[/]

McGovern Landslide

[President Johnson]

Reagan wins all but DC. And he gets a a few votes more in the popular, just around 60%.

President Ronald Reagan/Vice President George Bush: 60.21% and 535 EV.
Former Senator George McGovern/Senator Gary Hart: 37.11% and 3 EV.