Is Pennsylvania drifting towards solid GOP?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

A big question, what's the population growth trends?

Secondly, even as West PA goes Republican, Southeast PA (particularly Philadelphia and the suburbs) seem heavily trending Democratic. Pittsburgh itself voted like 80% for Clinton (or something around there).

Virginia started going Democratic because the fastest growing areas of VA were heavily Democratic (North Virginia) and they eventually began to outvote the rest of the state. From memory, PA's Trump counties are not in the same boat.

An interesting article here. I'll look at some old county results shortly.

This is why it won't. https://berkslancasterlebanonlink.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/county-growth.jpg. The fastest growing areas are the bluing suburbs and philly. Most of rural PA is shrinking and maxed out.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Assuming margins stay the same, and taking 2010-2015 growth as the same as 2016-2020, the margin in Clinton counties would go from 755,757 votes to 772,550. The state itself, meanwhile, would grow by a significantly lower margin (I think trump counties would slightly shrink by about 6000) An even, no trends election, then, would be about about a 15,000 vote margin (.23 points). I'd guess PA will still trend slightly R, but fast growth in the mainline means it won't go past a lean r state in the current party system.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The same method in Michigan (2010-2012 pop growth doubled)
MI Clinton counties Margin 2016: 494,140
MI Clinton counties Margin 2020: 489,473

MI Trump counties margin 2016: 505,752
MI Trump counties margin 2020: 510,487
Trump's margin in MI, in contrast, should grow. Michigan, assuming no swings, will be about .45 points, versus .38 points in PA. In other words, Michigan should be more republican than PA in 2016.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

No Wisconsin is

No, Michigan actually is.