Is Pennsylvania drifting towards solid GOP?

[TML]

The reason why Obama and Hillary won Centre County is because of the influence of Penn State's University Park Campus there.

In terms of the state itself, I do not think it will become a lock for the Republicans in the foreseeable future. What flipped PA was the massive shift in rural margins toward the GOP, especially in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. Since the 2016 margin was a fraction of a percent, it should be relatively easy for the next Democratic candidate to flip PA back, assuming that he or she does not neglect the suburban/rural areas like Hillary did.

[TML]

The reason why Obama and Hillary won Centre County is because of the influence of Penn State's University Park Campus there.

I can't find exit polls in PA to corroborate this versus W's 53-42% win in that county. I know that nationally, 18-24 split in 2000 but in 2004 they had shifted to Kerry by 9 points. But Bush won the county twice; in 2000, 53-42% and 2004, 51-47%. Admittedly the margin shrunk from 9 to 4 points in 4 years... though Santorum carried it 62-34% in 2000.

Obama swept it by 12 points in 2008, then won it 1 point in 2012, then Hillary won it by 2 points in 2016. For the record the township data does say that in 2016, the state college borough voted by 65-27% Clinton. But nationally, in both 2008 and 2012, young voters swung to the Democrats by wide margins.

Are we sure that this is the reason? This county has undergone definitely a transition from being a reliably Republican county to a Democratic county with about 75,000 votes cast.

Remember that in places with major colleges/universities, the decisive voting bloc is not the college-aged students (who, in many cases, have their votes count toward their hometowns, not their college towns), but the professors, lecturers, and other staff who work in these universities. These people are pretty much all highly educated, and thus tend to vote for left-leaning candidates.

In the case of Centre County, people who live in and around State College tend to vote Democratic, while people in the outer rural areas tend to vote Republican. Aside from Obama and Hillary, this county also voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Note that Bush won college-educated voters overall in 2000 and 2004, which is probably why he managed to win this county during his elections.

[TML]

In addition to these trends, PA was the only major rust-belt trump flip (of the MI, WI, PA upset trio) which hillary did actively campaign in. The fact that she still put a degree of effort to PA only to turn up a loss is telling.

Well, I don't think she "did her best" in PA. Her campaigning in PA did not include much active outreach to white working class voters. If she had put more focus on that group - especially in the Northeastern part of the state (the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area) - she would likely have won PA.

In any case, since future population projections suggest that Philadelphia and surrounding areas will grow faster than the western part of the state, I think PA will definitely be at least a worthwhile investment for Democrats in the foreseeable future.