Is Pennsylvania drifting towards solid GOP?

[Technocracy Timmy]

I was gonna call into question TD's assertion that it would take a moderate non-evangelical GOP candidate to win PA in a GE until I realized how few evangelicals are in the state.

Apparently Pennsylvania is only 19% evangelical Christian. Oregon by comparison is 29%. Source. I had no idea till now.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Of interest, 18-24 voted 50-45% for Clinton in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is 81% white (so I'd assume 78-79% white in 2020). Trump's Administration probably dictates how this age cohorts would view the GOP and vote accordingly in 2020 and 2024. If he stabilizes and demonstrates he's a viable GOP model, younger Pennsylvanian whites might go GOP more heavily. If not, I can see the rising Generation Z types revolting and putting PA in the blue column again. To date, downballot, I still haven't seen the GOP strength that's been demonstrated elsewhere in the Midwest on the row office level.  

The 18-24 group was quite a spectacular change in PA. Of all the age groups, this was really the only one which underwent a fundamentally large shift to the Republican. Every other group was only small improvements, if that. It should be noted that most of the 18-24 year olds in 2016 would not be previous Obama voters.

Might be useful to keep an eye on Trump's approvals among 18-29 year olds in PA. I think he could just as easily lose this group than hold them, and overall it is in the GOP's best interests to make a positive imprint on them now... except that it's hard to see that being the case. Nationally at least, Trump is absolutely bombing with 18-29 year olds. It's consistently his worst age group.

Similar shift in WI, too. Correct this might be a shift among younger whites in the Rust Belt. We'll have to see.

And Minnesota (Maine might also count here as well).