Bill Maher on Donald Trump's chances for 2020

[NOVA Green]

Really don't give an "F" about Bill Maher's political analysis....

Sure, he might be a funny guy, not afraid to do the "shock comedian" shtick, and offend everyone on the planet.... but I will happily take in no specific order the pundits from the following sources above Bill Maher's electoral analysis:

1.) Collective Wisdom of Atlas
2.) 538.Com
3.) Michael Moore's electoral Map

Just sayin'

[Voice of low info America]

I do agree with the point that Democrats see the Russia thing as a deus ex machina. Every time some "scandal" happens, Democrats always think it'll be "the one" that destroys Trump, and it's yet to happen. They need a real strategy, not hoping for Trump to destroy himself. That attitude is what lost them the election in the first place.

[Liberalrocks]

Hey Bill, I like you man but don't sit there like you did all you could to prevent Trump from winning, you were lukewarm with Hillary and not as you were with Obama, cmon.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Really don't give an "F" about Bill Maher's political analysis....

Sure, he might be a funny guy, not afraid to do the "shock comedian" shtick, and offend everyone on the planet.... but I will happily take in no specific order the pundits from the following sources above Bill Maher's electoral analysis:

1.) Collective Wisdom of Atlas
2.) 538.Com
3.) Michael Moore's electoral Map

Just sayin'

I mean Maher's gut instinct about Trump when he announced after only one week into his campaign was spot on compared to 538 (and I'm assuming atlas which probably laughed him off as well)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTL-M3e6lq0

His analysis (along with Michael Dyson) is completely spot on. The only thing he was off was when he said he didn't think Trump would become President (though this was a week after Trump had announced).

[politicallefty]

His words are more of a warning to progressives than a declaration of what is going to happen. If Donald Trump does somehow get reelected, I think the United States of America should dissolve itself. If that does happen, I will be an active and vehement proponent of California's independence (and all other states that do not want to be part of a power on massive decline).

[Technocracy Timmy]

His words are more of a warning to progressives than a declaration of what is going to happen. If Donald Trump does somehow get reelected, I think the United States of America should dissolve itself. If that does happen, I will be an active and vehement proponent of California's independence (and all other states that do not want to be part of a power on massive decline).

That's a really good point. He made a huge deal about not being complacent in 2016. He even told his audience cheering Rob Reiner who said Hillary would win in a landslide with "Don't say that!"

[OSR stands with Israel]

Pennsylvania is the equivalent of 2008 Virginia. It's undergoing a true realignment. West PA was a Dem stronghold (hell it voted for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan) and now its a GOP stronghold. It went blue from 1976 to 2004, then light red in 2008, and dark red in 2016.

No WI is GOP Virginia not PA

[GGover]

Pennsylvania is the equivalent of 2008 Virginia. It's undergoing a true realignment. West PA was a Dem stronghold (hell it voted for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan) and now its a GOP stronghold. It went blue from 1976 to 2004, then light red in 2008, and dark red in 2016.

The margins Trump won in PA, WI, and MI are way more similar to Obama's margin's in Indiana and North Carolina in 2008. Obama won Virginia by 6 points in 2008. Trump didn't win PA, WI, or MI by a single point. I would expect all three states to go back to democrats in 2020.

[dw93]

Pennsylvania is the equivalent of 2008 Virginia. It's undergoing a true realignment. West PA was a Dem stronghold (hell it voted for Walter Mondale over Ronald Reagan) and now its a GOP stronghold. It went blue from 1976 to 2004, then light red in 2008, and dark red in 2016.

No WI is GOP Virginia not PA

While WI in 16 was a lot closer than Virginia in 2008, if any of the three states that swung from the Democrats to Trump is the GOP Virginia, it's Wisconsin. Dubya managed to keep Wisconsin close in 2000 and 2004 and over the course of the last decade or two, Wisconsin has been more Republican at the state level than not. Michigan, IMHO, was a fluke just like Indiana was in 2008 and will most likely flip back to the Democrats easily. Pennsylvania could be considered the GOP North Carolina. The GOP will probably lose it in the next few cycles, but they'll keep it close.

[You are responsible]

1889-1893 was the only time in US History that the GOP held the White House for only 4 years.
Republicans get re-elected. For Trump to lose, 2020 would be another 1892.
History is against the Democrats. I don't see a "savior" on the horizon, and I doubt I will.

https://xkcd.com/1122/

Donald Trump is the very definition of the unprecedented president.

Before him, no president had ever lacked any prior government or military service.

Before him, no president had ever been elected while losing both the popular vote and his home state.

Before him, only a single divorcee had ever been elected president.


So, I'm confident that he can do it. He can lose in 2020.

[Voice of low info America]

Before him, only a single divorcee had ever been elected president.

And he had twice as many as Reagan! Those Family Values Republicans.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump is incompetent, scandal-ridden and heading an unpopular policy agenda, but that said, incumbent presidents are tough to beat. After an iffy first term Bush and Obama both managed to see off competent opponents running a vigorous campaign.

I dunno. If Democrats go into the election united behind a likeable candidate, right now they probably should win. But who knows what will happen over the next few years.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I agree it's still too early to predict what's gonna happen four years down the road. (We'll probably be looking at this thread in 2020 and laugh about it)

1889-1893 was the only time in US History that the GOP held the White House for only 4 years.
Republicans get re-elected. For Trump to lose, 2020 would be another 1892.
History is against the Democrats. I don't see a "savior" on the horizon, and I doubt I will.

https://xkcd.com/1122/

Donald Trump is the very definition of the unprecedented president.

Before him, no president had ever lacked any prior government or military service.

Before him, no president had ever been elected while losing both the popular vote and his home state.

Before him, only a single divorcee had ever been elected president.


So, I'm confident that he can do it. He can lose in 2020.

Electoral history doesn't appear to be the best predictor in the age of Trump. Who would think the Democratic candidate would be losing while carrying Virginia, (hadn't happened since 1924) Nevada, and Colorado? (both last backed the losing Democrat in 1908).

In conclusion, Trump is by no means safe in 2020. I see quite a few parallels between him other one-term presidents since 1892, such as Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, and George HW Bush.

[JoshPA]

Yes, I think he has more than a 50% of winning. If it's a close election, how can the Dems win WI, MI, and PA???

3 very simple words Blue dog democrat. with a progressive running mate. good balance ticket.

[Bea O'Problem]

Trump likely left some Romney voters on the table in Wisconsin and Michigan though. The swings from Obama to Trump were concentrated largely in the Midwest and that demographic (Obama-Trump voters) numbered somewhere between 6.7-9.2 million voters.

This is actually the reason I think Trump will win 2020 and win the popular vote (for right now - don't quote me in 3.5 years plz! lol).

Trump did very poorly in Milwaukee and Minneapolis and Denver and Philadelphia and NOVA suburbs etc. etc. If he picks up even what 75% of what Romney got he's good to go. Third parties are always weaker the 2nd election after a third party breakout.

Democrats are also gunning for the Romney vote.

Trump may very well win reelection, but I don't think there's a scenario where he wins the popular vote. He bled hundreds of thousands of voters in states like Texas and Arizona where he under-performed Romney. Mind explaining your reasoning a little more?

I can easily see Trump winning another term, but I can't see him winning the popular vote.

[politicallefty]

That's a really good point. He made a huge deal about not being complacent in 2016. He even told his audience cheering Rob Reiner who said Hillary would win in a landslide with "Don't say that!"

You're exactly right. I never miss an episode of Bill Maher. Bill Maher knew it could happen and a number of his guests said the same. You had the creator of Dilbert and Michael Moore himself predict Trump was going to win (don't mind the quality, I just found the video, but it was from September). Michael Moore was a strong Hillary supporter in the general (finally understanding our two-party system), but listening to his prediction again gives me chills. He exactly predicted how Trump was going to pull off his electoral victory.