Nader Factor
jravnsbo:
good stats zork
Gustaf:
Quote from: zorkpolitics on December 30, 2003, 07:18:25 PM
Actually it is far from clear Gore woul have won.
Based on exit polls, If only Bush and Gore were on the ballot in FL, Bush would have won 49% to 48% (2 % not voting, the other 1% lost in the rounding). This was the result not of Nader voters favoring Bush, but 2% of Gore's voters would have voted for Bush without Nader in the race! Perhaps the more liberal Nader made Gore seem more of a centrist to the more conservative FL Democrats?
However, the exit polls also showed that Gore was favored by a net 20% of the Nader voters (over Bush and not voting), so perhaps Gore would have won FL if only Gore wasn't running.
See MSNBC for additional polling results:
http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polls.asp?office=P&state=fl
What you have to keep in mind are the kind of errors which occur when you have such small groups in a poll. Occasionally people give messy answers. I know this b/c I know people who work with polls. Some institutes use double questions, and can then see that some people might first state they are males and then that they are females or something similar, and then they are leaved out. It seems unlikely that Gore voters would have gone for Bush without Nader it doesn't make much sense to me. Is there a logical explanation?
© tweed:
Quote from: zorkpolitics on December 30, 2003, 07:18:25 PM
Actually it is far from clear Gore woul have won.
Based on exit polls, If only Bush and Gore were on the ballot in FL, Bush would have won 49% to 48% (2 % not voting, the other 1% lost in the rounding). This was the result not of Nader voters favoring Bush, but 2% of Gore's voters would have voted for Bush without Nader in the race! Perhaps the more liberal Nader made Gore seem more of a centrist to the more conservative FL Democrats?
However, the exit polls also showed that Gore was favored by a net 20% of the Nader voters (over Bush and not voting), so perhaps Gore would have won FL if only Gore wasn't running.
See MSNBC for additional polling results:
http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polls.asp?office=P&state=fl
Even is Gore only gained a net 1% of Nader's votes he would have won Florida.
zorkpolitics:
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What you have to keep in mind are the kind of errors which occur when you have such small groups in a poll. Occasionally people give messy answers. I know this b/c I know people who work with polls. Some institutes use double questions, and can then see that some people might first state they are males and then that they are females or something similar, and then they are leaved out. It seems unlikely that Gore voters would have gone for Bush without Nader it doesn't make much sense to me. Is there a logical explanation?
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Good point, in a normal poll the margin of error is often +/- 3% or more, in part because of the small sample size. But also in part because some in the poll who say they intend to vote don't. However, in an exit poll 100% are actual voters, and MUCH larger numbers of voters are interviewed. For 2000 over 13,000 nationwide were asked who they would vote for in a 2 way race. The answer was the same as FL, Bush 49%, Gore 48%, 2% non-voters, again because 2% of Gore's voters woudl switch to Bush without Nader running!!
© tweed:
Read my last post Zork.
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