Explain a path to which Bernie would win SD,ND, and MT

[Bidenworth2020]

mapchart.net

use this website to make a county map of a state if you want or just discuss how he could win the states by picking a specific runningmate,etc.

My Map

[Pollster]

Clinton lost SD by 110,000 votes which amounted to 30 points. She lost the state's two largest population centers by 12,000 votes/15 points (Minnehaha County) and 16,000 votes/32 points (Pennington County). Really hard to see how Bernie closes that.

I'm not familiar enough with the other states.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Clinton's map with a 35 point swing.

[Kamala]

Trump blows up Mt Rushmore and joins the anti-DAPL protests, while Bernie embraces DAPL and chooses Hoeven as his running mate.

[Pollster]

By the way, I don't know if that map website you found is new, but it's absolutely superb.

[Kingpoleon]

South Dakota .1% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/02SDsenatecounties.PNG



North Dakota .7% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/86NDSenateCounties.PNG

ND .9% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/North_Dakota_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2012.svg



Montana's map to victory for Democrats county-wise is rather clear. This is a .9% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/MTSen06County.png

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Kasich runs as an independent and takes at least 10% nationwide. It would be hard to take enough votes from the Republicans in the Dakotas without at least 10% going to a conservative third party ticket. Montana might not need the full 10%. Remember, 2008 was quite close. McCain didn't break 50%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Dakotas are probably just too Republican, but in a huge landslide, he might be able to barely win Montana.

[MT Treasurer]

South Dakota .1% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/02SDsenatecounties.PNG



North Dakota .7% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/86NDSenateCounties.PNG

ND .9% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/North_Dakota_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2012.svg



Montana's map to victory for Democrats county-wise is rather clear. This is a .9% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/MTSen06County.png

Even if it were, it wouldn't be the nonsense you posted there. Sorry, but the MT-SEN 2006 map is completely irrelevant, and there's zero chance Sanders would win Sheridan or Rosebud County. The margins would be a lot different in many places as well.

Also pretty hilarious that you just googled and dug up a result map from an election which took place 30 years ago.

[Bidenworth2020]

no I didnt I based SD off 1996 Senate election and ND off 2012 Senate Election and Montana is based off who I think he would appeal to.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

The pee pee tape comes out in October.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

South Dakota .1% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/02SDsenatecounties.PNG



North Dakota .7% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/86NDSenateCounties.PNG

ND .9% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/91/North_Dakota_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2012.svg



Montana's map to victory for Democrats county-wise is rather clear. This is a .9% PV win:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/MTSen06County.png

Even if it were, it wouldn't be the nonsense you posted there. Sorry, but the MT-SEN 2006 map is completely irrelevant, and there's zero chance Sanders would win Sheridan or Rosebud County. The margins would be a lot different in many places as well.

Also pretty hilarious that you just googled and dug up a result map from an election which took place 30 years ago.

Man, Sheridan county makes me sad. They were voting for literal socialists 60-70 years ago.

[NOVA Green]

So the hypothetical scenario posited by the OP assumes that:

(Actually not the OPs words at all, but let's entertain the concept for a moment

1.) Bernie runs and wins the Dem Primary in '20
2.) Trump is running for reelection and wins the Republican Primary

What would it take for Bernie to beat Trump in any or all of these three States?

A.) These are all relatively isolationist/ Non-Interventionist places (Foreign Policy).
    i.) Trump leads the nation into "ground wars in Asia / Middle East"
    ii.) Trump does a Jimmy Carter and embargoes export of Grain to Russia (Or elsewhere) as part
        of either a trade war or economic nationalist policies

B.) Trump's economic policies continue to fuel what is in reality a Modern Day Farm Crisis. Global commodity prices have fallen dramatically for items such as Dairy and Wheat. (Economic Policy)
   
i.) There are many counties in the US that swung heavily towards Trump in agricultural producing counties in the Unites States, despite his economic protectionist policies.
   
ii.) I have commented on this phenomenon in other threads such as what's going on with Dairy Country, Grain Belt, etc.... Many of these farms are on the verge of collapse, and swung towards Trump, because both the Democratic and Republican nominees were bashing TPP.
 
iii.) If Trump comes out on the wrong side of the argument when it comes to protecting relatively small scale family owned Wheat Farms in the Prairie States (Large acreage, capitol intensive, but small margins), places from ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, and MT are in play.

 iv.)  The same wheat farmers of the Dakotas, Kansas, and Nebraska that have made the cost of bread dirt cheap in America, are still relatively poor by any objective standards.... The consolidation of institutional investment in the Wheat Farms, is creating an even more inequitable relationship, where farmers are being forced off their lands because they can't afford to pay the bills to the Big Banks and Wall Street Investors.

v.) Cattle Industry--- Tougher nut to crack than Wheat Farmers in many ways... The Dem path to victory in ND/SD has always run through the Eastern (farming) portions of these state. The industry is much more Libertarian, where even the ranch-hands getting paid crap wages on the large ranches are frequently more focused on getting their chops in and make it on the Rodeo circuit than some of the abstract items that we all wrangle about in internet Forums and debate endlessly on Cable News. Still, something tells me the optics of Bernie riding a mechanical bull would in this part of the Country, would appear much better than that of Trump doing the same.... ;


C.) Aging Population--- Medical Care
    i.) Much of the rural population in these States are increasingly aging. The cost of health care isn't particularly cheap for any of you that has had a relative or friend trying to cover the costs of their Medical Care, solely out of Medicare.... Instead you pay tons of extra money out of pocket for all of the "add-on" services to try to cover the cost of your medical services as you age.

   ii.) Bernie's platform regarding medical drug cost control should play pretty well in places like this, where Seniors frequently go through all the time and expense to drive over the border to Canada, just in order to afford their medicine.

iii.) Because the population is so old in many of these counties and communities, support for some type of "Single Payer" / Medicaid/Medicare for all, tends to perform a bit better in support than many other parts of the US.

The path for Bernie in MT/SD/ND clearly should follow the general lines I mentioned. In states with extremely low levels of regular religious activities, there shouldn't be too much of a hit from the Fundies. On Guns, Bernie can hold his own, and speak the common sense language of most of us Westerners from smaller towns and rural areas.

 

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

For North Dakota, look at the 2012 senate map. that would probably be Sanders map too if he won the state.

For South Dakota, look at Obama 2008 and swing it ~10% D

For Montana, Bullock's 2012 victory is a good starting map as well.


With that said, Sanders isn't winning any of these states unless he wins the Popular Vote by 10-15%.

[twenty42]

The 2nd Dust Bowl forms over the next 3 years.  These states all went straight from 60%ish Hoover in 1928 to 60%ish FDR in 1932.

1. The next Great Depression isn't coming anytime soon.

2. Trump isn't Hoover.

3. Bernie isn't FDR.

Dems should worry about MI, WI, and PA long before they think about ND, SD, and MT.

[McGovernForPrez]

The 2nd Dust Bowl forms over the next 3 years.  These states all went straight from 60%ish Hoover in 1928 to 60%ish FDR in 1932.

1. The next Great Depression isn't coming anytime soon.

2. Trump isn't Hoover.

3. Bernie isn't FDR.

Dems should worry about MI, WI, and PA long before they think about ND, SD, and MT.

1. A recession between now and 2020 are highly likely, secondly it doesn't take a depression to have a natural disaster of that size. Considering all the soil erosion and desertification happening out there I wouldn't be too surprised.

2. You're right Trump isn't Hoover, he's comically worse than Hoover.

3. He gets those comparisons a lot.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The 2nd Dust Bowl forms over the next 3 years.  These states all went straight from 60%ish Hoover in 1928 to 60%ish FDR in 1932.

1. The next Great Depression isn't coming anytime soon.

2. Trump isn't Hoover.

3. Bernie isn't FDR.

Dems should worry about MI, WI, and PA long before they think about ND, SD, and MT.

1. A recession between now and 2020 are highly likely, secondly it doesn't take a depression to have a natural disaster of that size. Considering all the soil erosion and desertification happening out there I wouldn't be too surprised.

2. You're right Trump isn't Hoover, he's comically worse than Hoover.

3. He gets those comparisons a lot.

1. Lot fewer farmers now.
2. In the relevant ways, no.
3. I don't think anyone who doesn't rabidly support him seriously thinks he's an FDR. Al Smith, maybe.

[Hammy]

Either Trump approval in the low 20% range, or a strong nationwide third party challenger that draws large numbers of Republican voters.

[JoshPA]

in a world where bernie is a republican.

[SWE]

A few hundreds of thousands or so of Californians and New Yorkers randomly move there

[SingingAnalyst]

ND and SD are a stretch, but MT is conceivable: Dukakis and Obama almost won MT. Especially given MT's anti-incumbent tendencies, Bernie winning MT in 2020 is within the realm of reasonability.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

ND and SD are a stretch, but MT is conceivable: Dukakis and Obama almost won MT. Especially given MT's anti-incumbent tendencies, Bernie winning MT in 2020 is within the realm of reasonability.

Maybe, but only if Sanders is winning by nationally by more than Obama did in 2008.

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

Bernie Sanders pulls an Emmanuel Macron and reveals himself to be a devout right-winger and runs in the Republican primary.

(off-topic, Macron has been going further and further to the right, hence the reference)

[McGovernForPrez]

Bernie Sanders pulls an Emmanuel Macron and reveals himself to be a devout right-winger and runs in the Republican primary.

(off-topic, Macron has been going further and further to the right, hence the reference)

I didn't know that about Macron. French politics are bizarre.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie Sanders pulls an Emmanuel Macron and reveals himself to be a devout right-winger and runs in the Republican primary.

(off-topic, Macron has been going further and further to the right, hence the reference)

I didn't know that about Macron. French politics are bizarre.

Anyone paying any attention could see that Macron was a right-winger before the election.