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Britain33, you need to have two Democratic performing Hispanic CD's contained entirely in Bexar County to be safe under the VRA in my opinion.

Ok. Apologies if you covered this in a past map, but what do you propose happens to TX-23 in this scenario? Does it become one of the two performing CDs (an unlikely move for a Republican map) or does it take up the 20% of the county that is most Anglo with approx. 400,000 people, with TX-21 moving out completely? Also, since the RGV doesn't have sufficient population for 3 full Hispanic districts, where do you connect the leftovers to since fajita strips are now out, too? I would like to see the whole that is made from the sum of the parts of your proposition.

Britain33, here is the design of the RGV area I have in mind more or less. Tragically, TX-11 is about 3 points short of 50%+ HCVAP due to the districts having higher population with only 38 districts, and that I think is an important goal for the Pubs to create such a safe Pub district that meets that metric for a host of reasons. It is possible it can be achieved by transferring some of the “excess” Hispanics from TX-15 to TX-11, but how to do that depends on the design of the slice and dice of Williamson and Travis County outside the Austin Dem vote sink, while still keeping TX-23 say 52% HCVAP and safely Pub, without looking ridiculous. VRA sensitive districts need to look reasonable. The uber erose stuff should not be VRA sensitive. The image of the map has in white the real estate where the populations of the CD’s is way off. The underpopulated northern plains white zone (plus whatever TX-11 releases in population if it moves down the RGV more to meet the 50%+ HCVAP threshold (while TX-23 moves down the RGV exclusive of the counties directly appending the river), will be used to “attack” the Metroplex and the Austin area, along with TX-25, whose boundaries will be changed to join the slice and dice party. So a lot more work needs to be done.

In that regard, Victoria County is a pain in the ass for the Hispanic shift referred to above because it is reasonably high population and very Pub and needs to be retained if possible in the CD that joins the Austin area slice and dice, rather than be "wasted" in TX-15. That I find quite annoying, and means TX-15 needs to go father up the coast, which then affects the Houston area slice and dice. One things leads to another.

TX is fun to Pubmander because of the VRA issues and its complexity as to that issue and the wildly diverse trends which one must ponder as to whether they are a precursor for more of the same or more in the nature of a blip.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b705aabf-808a-4f6b-b837-844af931ad79

I see several issues with this, first McCaul lives in Austin, on the other end of the 10th, so a north south configuration between Harris and Montgomery won't work with that seat. Second, the 9th can remain performing and still take in more of Fort Bend, this makes it necessary not to split the county in half and leaves Nehls' home base intact. Third, TX-34 is 90% Hispanic, no court is going to let that stand, especially since Democrats have already been preparing for multiple VRA lawsuits in many different states, not that hard for them to add TX to that list. Fourth, TX-11 was a leftovers district last time and probably should remain one, this current configuration eats into a lot of the 19th, which is going to cause problems for several rural incumbents who are going to lose large parts of their district. Fifth, Denton County cannot sustain itself anymore, not with the swings it's undergoing, it should be split and part of it paired with the Red River Counties. Sixth, 15 and 23 are in all likelihood not Hispanic enough, you need around 60% for a Hispanic performing seat, in general, and it needs to be more like 70% in the RGV (the probably illegal pack of 28 is probably partially responsible for this). Seventh, the elimination of Doggett's seat is unwise as it serves as a convenient D pack and with 25 being used up and 17 needing to go to Waco to grab Sessions' home, I don't think that Carter is going to be too happy with the 31 that results. One thing that I do like in this map is the carve up of Montgomery, with Brady gone, the GOP should have free reign to slice and dice the county at will. Also the Collin seat isn't going to safe, but I have yet to see a map that successfully pulls that off, Van Taylor is just going to have hope he's strong enough to brave the trends, given we've seen strong incumbents survive in districts zooming away from their party, he should have a chance of pulling it off for sure, unless a Democratic favored year occurs.

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