Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well, this is obviously DOA in Congress, which is sad, since Puerto Ricans are Americans, and yet many members of Congress can easily just ignore that because... reasons.

The goal should be to make this as big a political issue as possible. If it's really DOA (which I'm not entirely convinced it is) we need to make it clear how racist the Republicans are being.

As well as the disgustingly racist 77% of Puerto Rican voters who did not vote for statehood.  They must be exposed.

1. They didn't vote against statehood--they just didn't vote.
2. That's a different issue altogether. The people of Puerto Rico have made a decision, and Republicans should follow their party's platform and honor that decision.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I checked about 20 of those.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Context: Opinion of NOVA Green, FC poll

One of the most underrated posters here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You've just broke The Rule™. May your testicles rot and flake off, Dave willing.

Rules were made to be broken.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is terrible

Agreed.

I really do think of myself as a pretty liberal person, but I'm personally not a fan of abortion. It's pretty upsetting that my tax dollars are being used to fund this. If a woman was raped or just can't have the child for health reasons, sure, but letting anyone just have an abortion at anytime is an absurd waste of money.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It should be noted that the poorest counties in Kansas and Indiana listed above are homes to major state universities, and the large presence of graduate students likely makes those areas seem poorer than they actually are (at least, without all of the negative social indicators associated with poverty, like low education rates, malnutrition, etc.).  I can assure you, Monroe County, Indiana is a very nice place to be!  I know Athens has poor Appalachian communities in addition to the university town, but I don't believe this is the case to such an extent in either IN/KS.  Just something to keep in mind.

Good points which I noticed but didn't get around to covering....

OT: Bloomington, Indiana is a pretty cool town, having spend a bit of time travelling through several decades back.

This is one of the items that really stood out as a contract between the "poorest county by MHI" vs "county with highest % of people below the poverty line lists--- university counties popping up on the list.

So we'll get back to the college county scene in a moment, but firstly I wanted to try to group together patterns in the "Poorest by MHI" dataset, and then subsequently "% of pop in poverty" dataset.

Poorest County by MHI:

These appear to roughly break into the following broader categories---

1.) Deep South- "Black Belt" Counties

(Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Belt_(U.S._region)

What do these counties have in common? (Other than voting overwhelmingly for HRC)

1.) A majority of the population is African-American, although only in AL, LA, MS, & SC >70%.
Halifax County NC has the lowest % of AA population at 51%, with Clay, GA at 58%, and Phillips, AR at 63%.

2.) The Anglo-American population is increasingly aging and Whites 55+ years represent 7-20% of the total County population from lowest to highest (MS, SC, LA, AL, NC, AR, & GA).

3.) In general, the population of these (7) counties tends to be older than average, but interestingly enough in LA & MS only 23-24% of the pop is 55+/Yrs.

4.) Economically: Agriculture still has a major economic impact in almost all of these counties in terms of employment by industry, but to a much lesser extent than I had expected. Agriculture accounts from 2-14 % of employment in the following order from lowest to highest (NC, MS, AL, SC, LA, AR, GA).

5.) Manufacturing accounts for a disproportionately amount of employment in virtually all of the counties.... Over 20% of workers are employed in MFG in MS & SC, 15% in AL/GA/NC. 13% in LA.

So, after looking at both the '12>'16 election numbers and the demographic profile of the various counties in a summarized format what does that tell us?

A.) Alabama- (Wilcox)- 400 less voters between '12 and '16 (+5% R Swing)

Considering that the County is 73% AA, and the overwhelmingly Democratic nature of the county, one can likely assume these were likely AA and/or Millennial voters that didn't vote that caused the +5% R swing, as opposed to defection of AA/White Obama voters switching to Trump. This could become an increasing problem for Democrats here, considering that the "White" vote is increasingly aging, and Millennial voters apparently weren't sufficiently enthused to vote in '16.

B.) Arkansas (Phillips County)--- 1,000 less voters '12-'16 (!)  (+6% R Swing)

 I would be remiss to not mention the history of Elaine, where a White lynch mob murdered 237 Americans back in 1919, after there was an attempt to unionize and organize tenant farmers in the County.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_County,_Arkansas

Interestingly enough this is one of the counties on the list with the highest % of "White" population (35%). It has one of the highest % of Whites > 55 (18%), which basically account for 50% of the White population of the County....Also, unlike many other counties in this category, manufacturing is the lowest accounting for only 8.2% of the workforce.

Despite the horrific massacre that occurred here almost 100 years ago, it still appears that White within the County did not swing heavily towards Trump, but rather that a huge number of voters <45 simply were not motivated to vote in '16.

C.) Georgia- (Clay County)- 100 less voters '12-'16 (+12% R Swing)

58% AA, 35% White--- Agriculture accounts for 14% of employment, and MFG 15%. 19% of the County population are Whites > 55 Yrs

Perhaps it is not surprising that it experienced the largest swings towards Trump of these (7) counties....

It's also the oldest county with 36% of the population 55+...

It does appear the drop-off in turnout doesn't explain the swings here.... Plenty of poor older Whites that voted Obama '12 swung to Trump '16....

D.) Louisiana- (East Carroll)--- 1.1k drop in Votes '12>'16. (+3% D Swing)

70% AA, but one of the lowest % of Whites >55 (11% of County). It also has the lowest % of the population 55+ of these states. Interestingly enough, although it does have a workforce 8% Ag, 13% MFG, 9% of the workforce is employed in the "Government Industry"....

This is pretty much the only county where there was a swing towards the Democratic Pres candidate between '12 and '16....

Without having detailed knowledge of the reason, the only explanation that I could provide would be that role of the government sector... Any explanations from Atlasia on why this would be an exception?

E.) Mississippi- (Holmes)-- 1,1k drop in votes '12>'16   (+2% R Swing)

The most AA County on the list (83%), and one of the lowest % employed in agriculture. 20% of the workforce is in manufacturing, and one of the lowest % of adults 55 + (24%). Only 7% of the County are Whites 55+

F.) South Carolina- (Allendale)- 600 drop in votes '12>'16 (+5% R Swing)

2nd highest in AA population (77%), only 10% of the population are Whites 55+, and about in the median range of age for total population (28% 55+).

Economically, it has the highest % of the population in the Manufacturing sector (22.2%!). There is still definitely some agricultural employment here (6.0%), but much less so than the other counties on this list.

G.) North Carolina- (Halifax)- 800 drop in votes '12>'16 (+5% R Swing)

Honestly, I'm not sure why I have Halifax on this list, since it shares very little similarities to the other six counties listed....

We're not really talking about a heavily rural County compared to the others.

The economy is heavily dominated by Health Care (16.8%), and Manufacturing (16.7%). It is the 2nd oldest county on the list (31% 55+). Whites 55+ are 14% of the total population, but considering that 39% of the County identifies as White, this stands out much less than the counties in Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia, (Or even Louisiana for that matter).

So what's a bit remarkable about Halifax County, is how small a swing there was towards Trump, especially when compared with Clay County GA and Phillips County AR....

In fact, it is actually remarkable how heavily Democratic this County is. Sure I know that NC Whites tend to be much more receptive to supporting Democrats than in AL, MS, & GA for example....

The only thing I can thing of is the presence of one of the oldest Community Colleges in NC, which also likely accounts for a huge chunk of public sector employment, also explains a more ethnically diverse population within the County.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax_Community_College


So what accounts for the dramatic decline in turnout among the poorest communities by MHI within the Black Belt?

1.) The cliche hack answer that I will summarily preempt is "Well Obama's Black and these are mostly heavily Black counties and now that he's not on the ticket, so that explains it all!"

2.) The secondary cliche hack answer that Atlas might present is: "Well all of these WWC voters in heavily Black Counties liked Obama in '12 and despised HRC in '16 and that somehow explains these swings"

3.) The 3rd argument might be something along the lines of: "Trump spoke to rural America and somehow created massive swings among Black and White Voters in poor rural counties in the deep South"

Ok--- now that I have preempted traditional Atlas Cliches, my thoughts are as follows:

1.) Older Voters both African-American and "White" tend to vote at much higher levels than Middle-Aged, and younger voters, especially in the "Deep South". In theory this should benefit Republican voters on the margins in  lower turnout elections, considering how concentrated the White vote is in the 55+ category in virtually all of these counties.

2.) If one looks at the ethnic composition of voters <45 Years, these counties are all much "Blacker" than the overall county population.

3.) The high level of employment in the manufacturing sector, and dramatic decline in employment in the agricultural sector has created a situation where both Millennial Whites & Blacks working side-by-side in the agricultural processing plants in the region rejected both the HRC and Trump economic vision, and the respective messaging images of the Democratic/Republican Party standard bearers.

Let's face it--- manufacturing work is supposed to be decent paying jobs with benefits and an "out" from doing seasonal work on a Farm, especially in economically depressed rural communities.

This is not the case in the some of the poorest communities in the Deep South, where major job injuries are prevalent, jobs basically pay only Federal Minimum Wage, and neither political party is really addressing the fundamental issues.

4.) It is actually amazing that there wasn't a stronger swing towards Trump in many of these counties, when looking at the overall demographics, and the dramatic drop in voter turnout '12>'16.

The only logical explanation is that poor Whites in the poorest counties of the Deep South, didn't actually swing towards Trump, but rather that many voters <45 sat the election out.

It should be interesting to monitor these counties come 2020, especially with a different Democrat at the top of ticket.

*** I really should drop Halifax from the list, but need to find another place to put it.

Thoughts anyone?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I, RFayette, do solemnly affirm that I will faithfully execute the office of Member of the Fremont House of Commons and will, to the best of my ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitutions of the Commonwealth of Fremont and of the Republic of Atlasia, so help me God.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would like to take this opportunity to thank Chief Justice and Party Chairman Windjammer for having the faith and trust in me to appoint me to the Atlasia House of Representatives. For those who do not know me, I am a patent lawyer with an engineering background, and I have dabbled in local electoral politics. Since my registration, I have been a citizen that was proud to take part in the Atlasian democratic experiment as a voter. Now, I am excited to take this big step up into the House of Representatives, where I can bring an outsider's prospective and an innovative approach to promote the vitality of the Constitution of Atlasia and the fundamental values it expresses: individual rights and liberties, genuine equality, access to justice, democracy, and the rule of law.

I would also like to take this opportunity to assure our party members that while I have not always voted 100% along the party line, I am committed to advocating for the progressive principals our Labor Party has fought for since its founding. I look forward to speaking with my fellow legislators, other government and public servants, and the common man about how we can improve the standard of living for every citizen in our great land.

This fellow Illinoisan and Congressman welcomes you to the Atlasian House of Representatives.

Half of the Labor Caucus is from Illinois. Deeply Disturbing!

And now it's two thirds. Come back, CXS, the Everyone Else Resistance needs you!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I can't wait to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars so that my kid can go to a diploma mill and learn to hate me for being part of the white-male power structure.

So you'd prefer people to be stupid. Got it.

So you assume that a collage degree automatically equals intelligence?

I wish I went to collage.

I think Goldwater needs to take a break today lmao

Ugh, typos don't discredit my point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S**t

I hope when there's an opening and you'd have more time, you'd rejoin X.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

His Majesty John Delaney

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Basically Warren G. Harding doesn't die in 1923 from a heart attack. He runs for re-election in 1924 with Calvin Coolidge which angers Robert M. La Follette who primary's them but fails so launches a third party campaign. The Democrats nominate William Gibbs McAdoo after a severely contested convention against dark horse candidate John Davis and Oscar Underwood. The Teapot Dome scandal still occurs so the President is still damaged by that. How would the map would like?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is this news?

"Oh no he confused two people. #NotMyPresident."

"I have a very good brain."
--Donald Trump, March 16, 2016

Do you (and the rest of Cult 45) really not know that he sets himself up to be called out for stuff like this?  He is supposed to be so smart, such a great businessman, such an outstanding negotiator, the only one who could fix our problems (yes, he actually said that), who only hires the very best people--yet how many of them has he now fired or had to resign?...the reason the media seems so negative towards him is because he has promised so many things that he is incapable of delivering, because they were never true in the first place, and he needs to be called out for them...simply reporting facts that contradict the wild claims he's made about himself and his administration and everything surrounding it is now seen as negative and "fake" by you and your kind.

And people like you need to stop treating current-day America like things are normal, and this is all just normal politics, and as if Donald Trump is being treated unfairly....and instead start acting like an American who cares about his neighbors, his country, his once held ideals (which you have abandoned by following Trump, if your ideals were anything with a semblance of American patriotism).  You elected this man, this authoritarian, this would-be dictator, and you're too blind to see him for exactly what he is, because you trust the things he's told you (see above) even though there is absolute proof to the contrary of all his boasts.

Cult 45 is the #1 problem with this country today, with the president directly behind them.  And yes, you are in a cult.  You, Saint.  Blind, religious devotion to a man with no interests outside of his own personal gain.  He would literally destroy this country if it meant furthering his brand.  And you know it.

And by denying what you know, you are everything that is wrong with America today.

I never said this is normal, and please save the stupid "you worship him" s***. I don't even support him anymore. I just think it's idiotic to complain and make a huge deal out of confusing two people.

Seriously, I have said a bunch of times that I don't support him and that I will vote for his primary challenger (if he doesn't get impeached first). Anyone can tell you.

If you're going to attack me, at least do it right.

I'll even spell it out in my sig for you and for anyone else who makes these silly comparisons between me and the extremely rare person who actually thinks Trump is a God Emperor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nailed Wanda behind Cosmos back. How could you?! HP!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To be fair, a Western Democrat hasn't really been tried since McGovern, and The West was the weakest region for Trump.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Straight from his Wikipedia page:

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[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is awful I'm glad they caught the asses who started the fire.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Rumor on Twitter that Trump is now engaging with Shumer on a plan to *repeal* the debt ceiling

Honestly that would be one of the best policy outcomes of the Trump admin. The debt ceiling is one of the dumbest, destabilizing, own-goal creating inventions of American politics and only a country as wealthy and sloth with economic clout would ever conjure up something as asinine as it. If this is true - big if - then Trump/Schumer have my full support

While we should always raise the debt ceiling in time, we need its mere presence to force congress to discuss budget issues and our tragic deficits and debt. I could only support abolishment of the debt ceiling if it was tied to the passage of a Balanced Budget Amendment to the US Constitution.

You literally understand nothing, do you?

Yeah, if you want to get a good idea of why balancing the budget is not a good idea during a recession, take a look at the budgets of 1929-1932.  Deficit spending is a key recession-fighting tool along with an aggressive monetary policy; while I think it can be overused, to tie the hands of Congress during a crisis is just silly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As much as I'd love to see Ryan gone, he ain't going anywhere.  Likely R, but only because I hope he loses.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Since I'm much closer to Democrats- arguably trade (I'm to the right on this issue, as opposed to the current Republican President) and some foreign policy, since I'm probably more hawkish than usual Democrats. Also probably some economic issues like spending, but it's hard to be on the right economically in the US since it's such a capitalist nation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Republicans have a decreased majority (around 220-225 seats), how does the change the House?  Will it make it more bipartisan because of the need to get votes from both parties to pass anything?

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?

I thinks in that scenario you would probably see the freedom caucus force out of Ryan as speaker for his perceived failures. In that case one big possibility is that I can see whatever remaining moderate republicans in the house making a deal with the democrats to govern in a coalition.

I believe this is how the Texas house of representatives is run and it would not surprise me if this is what we will end up with this at some point in the future.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Don't worry, I'm sure the Justice Democrats will prop up a staunch progressive in a progressive-friendly state...

Oh wait, they're too busy fighting Joe Manchin: a Democrat in a deep red state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Politicians you endorse seem to be winning quite a lot lately.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

>Crusty Gnome

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Because of the polling.

In retrospect, MI was probably fine to not label a tossup since Trump's win was a bit "flukey."  Clinton was off around 75k votes from Obama in Detroit.. had they turned out, MI would've gone Dem.  So while the GOP can win the state, it generally won't happen unless the stars align.  There is nothing to suggest there is a structural problem for the Dems here (although I do think that long-term, especially as the Detroit MSA de-populates, the state will trend R).

PA is different- here, Clinton beat Obama in turnout throughout the Philly metro and was only off in the Philly city limits by 4k votes.  So there wasn't a turnout problem... what happened was there was a dramatic shift in Luzerne, Erie, and Lackwanna Counties.  This is something that I saw a few articles here and there speculate on as a possibility pre-election, but I don't think most people were taking that very seriously, or thought it was still years away, since the polling wasn't backing it up.  In reality, PA is a state that will almost certainly trend R long-term since the demographics are very favorable to the GOP.  I think most people recognized that, but it's happening a little sooner than I think most people thought it would, so it should probably be labeled a toss-up in most elections going forward.

If the latter is true, it's only because the Democrats will choose to pursue their criminally stupid strategies of identity politics and social liberalism emphasis.

Identity politics is not solely about minorities, unless you're saying that rural whites have no identity, and Trump didn't create a campaign solely to appeal to those demographics, basically.