The next Virginia/Colorado

[PragmaticPopulist]

Firstly, I want to commend Pragmatic Populist for being a top-tier poster. We have experienced a major influx of new posters since the Georgia Primary, and you add significantly to the content, quality, and over contribution to Atlas. Thank You!

Secondly, I need to make a full confession----

I was the individual/idiot that voted "Other--- Alaska".

Now before the baying hounds start biting at my heels, let me explain the rationale or logic behind that vote, and not simply voting to be contrarian.

So when I read the original question as posed: "Which GOP-leaning state(s) will become tossups, and eventually lean DEM in the 2-4 presidential elections?" there are obviously ways to separate that into two parts----

1.) Which states will become tossups AND
2.) Eventually Lean Dem (2-4 Election Cycles)

So the obvious answer to Part I is that GA and AZ might potentially be considered tossups currently considering the '16 Presidential Election results. In the case of GA '08 needs to be added to the mix as well.

A.)  Georgia--- So the case for GA being a tossup is a bit flaky, in that it is premised upon a continued high level of Democratic support in the Atlanta suburbs, and high level of turnout among Millennial and African-American Voters.

At this point we have no evidence that "demographics are destiny" and that the major swings against Trump in the 'burbs of Atlanta are transferable, let alone that post Obama Democrats will be able to deliver the same level of support and turnout among African-American and Millennial voters.

Several of our resident Georgia experts have already cautioned that GA is not nearly an elastic state as many believe, and that a "normal" Centrist Conservative Republican will likely be able to regain ground lost in Metro Atlanta.

So, although we might consider GA to move into a toss-up realm in 2020 and possibly beyond, we have yet to see any evidence that Georgia will move into a "Lean Democratic" category within the next 4 Presidential Election cycles.

2.) Arizona--- We definitely have a bit more evidence that Arizona might well be a true "tossup" state in 2020 and beyond....

Rapidly growing Latino population of voting age, after several decades of Anti-Latino rhetoric from Republican lawmakers in the State, are effectively pushing Latino voters into the arms of the Democratic Party.... This is a phenomenon which could potentially mirror what happened in California that was a Republican State, until Pete Wilson decided to scapegoat Latino-Americans with a draconian "collective punishment" that caused many Republican leaning Latinos to start voting Democrat in massive numbers a few short years later.

That being said, Latinos make up only a fraction of the Arizona electorate at this time, and is still a state heavily dominated by older, wealthier, and more significantly California retirees.

Ok--- fair enough... I could well see Arizona moving to tossup status and eventual Lean Dem in 4 Pres election cycles (As opposed to GA, where that is harder to imagine).

Still--- the dramatic increase in Latino votes in '16 are only a small sliver of a much bigger story.... Much of the reason why AZ was so close in '16 had to do with a rejection of Trump among relatively wealthy retirees in Metro-Phoenix....

So similar to GA (Metro-Atlanta) will these voters switch back and start voting Republican again for President without Trump at the top of the ticket, once they get a "normal" Republican President?

It is interesting that even in some of the wealthiest Anglo parts of Maricopa County that "Sheriff Joe" got shot down in a blaze of glory, looking at precinct level results.

Assuming that the enthusiasm and grassroots organizing from '16 continues, it is not unfathomable that these classic Anglo SoCal retirees are rejecting the Anti-Latino racism and bigotry that pervades their new adopted State.

Time will tell.... money talks and money walks and something tells me these same voters will flip back Post Trump. There are a lot more Middle-Class Anglo retirees coming from SoCal over the next decade or so.

3.) Texas--- Bit of a cross between AZ and GA when it comes to predicting demographic change.

I lived in Texas (Houston Area) for four years, so definitely get the concept that Texas *might* become a tossup in '20/'24, but definitely don't see it moving "Lean Dem" anytime soon.

In order for Texas to move into Toss-Up status it would be predicated upon the following variables:

A.) Continued and expanding voter turnout levels among Working-Class Latinos (80-20 Dem). Is this sustainable in a post-Trump era if the Republican Party moves away from stereotyping Latino Voters?

B.) Equally importantly---- Middle Class Latinos in Texas tend to only vote Democratic narrowly on the margins, but they tend to vote much more frequently. *IF* the dramatic swings from '16 continue, this is a giant Red Flag for Texas Republicans, considering the overall level of support for George W. in '00/'04, as well as other subsequent Republican Presidential candidates in '08/'12.

C.) Anglo suburban voters---- This is obviously the key to the Lone Star State.... Are the dramatic 20% swings among wealthy Anglo voters in the 'burbs of Houston/DFW/SA/Austin sustainable in the Post-Trump era? I have serious doubts on that question, but again a fast moving and dynamic state where 80% of the Population resides in large Metro Areas, so anything is possible depending upon how new voters moving in go a few decades down the line.

4.) South Carolina--- Not seeing it there.... Sure Northern transplants to Coastal SC are potential swings, through in country-club areas outside of Richmond, and maybe some gains in the 'burbs of Charlotte, but NW-SC Whites would need to start shifting dramatically in order to make this state a "tossup" let alone "Lean Dem".

5.) Alaska--- Heck Trump only got 51% of the vote here in '16, in a state that has been shifting Democratic gradually over the past 3 election cycles.

Unlike GA and AZ, Alaska is not dependent upon the votes of fickle Upper Middle-Class Anglo suburbanites...

Unlike AZ & TX, Alaska is not dependent upon a massive Latino surge to somehow make the State competitive.

If any of the states listed will become "Lean Democratic" at a Presidential level by 2032, I wold pick Alaska rather than rolling through the CW of AZ & GA....

Alaska is much more elastic, and although there is state revenue and paychecks going to every resident from Alaska as part of a negotiated deal with the Oil Industry, the whole deal with Alaska is that they are independent...

The cost of just about everything is higher in Alaska than anywhere else in the US (Frequently 3x the cost), food, medicine, rural health care....

Demographics are not destiny, recent election returns don't represent the totality, so I chose to make a wild bet and go with Alaska as a "Lean Dem" state by 2032 (AZ and GA much more skeptical on).

Feel free to shoot my argument full of holes.... that's what I love about Atlas.

Thanks for the commendment. I've been lurking here for a few months, and finally decided to create an account with all the fascinating voting trends happening.

I agree with most of your analysis. I'll give you a bit of feedback for each state.

A.) Georgia --- I'd say it will probably take longer the become competitive than Arizona, though I could see it becoming a tossup if there is high Democratic enthusiasm, and maybe depressed Republican turnout. The south (besides Florida) is pretty inelastic. It was Ross Perot's worst region in both 1992 and 1996, but that's a different matter. My guess is if you combine Barack Obama's 2008 performance in the Black Belt with Hillary Clinton's performance in metro Atlanta, you'd get a bare majority, but that would be tough. And you're right to think a more conventional Republican could probably revert the trends in suburban Atlanta back to their traditional leanings. I still think it's too early to say whether the trends in southern suburbs in 2016 are a relatively permanent trend, or just a one-off. One county I'd keep an eye on is Forsynth County, northeast of Atlanta. It had the largest swing of any county in Georgia towards Democrats in 2016.

B.) Arizona --- You could almost argue Arizona is a tossup right now. Trump failed to get a majority of the vote here, and the "show me your papers" laws aren't gonna help Republicans win over Hispanic voters. I can see Arizona at least becoming a Florida-like swing state, where it stays evenly divided for many election cycles. The growing Hispanic population may be canceled out by Republican-leaning retirees, preventing it from becoming a leans D state. The key for a statewide D win would probably be Maricopa County. Like the state, Trump was unable to get a majority of the vote here, and underperformed Mitt Romney's margin.

C.) Texas --- Again, I agree with you that Texas behaves like both Arizona and Georgia. Its suburbs, like most of the south, give Republicans comfortable margins, though it has a significant Hispanic population, and with Trump being the face of the Republican Party, younger Hispanics may perceive Republicans as anti-Hispanic for a generation. As was common in 2016, Texas's suburbs experienced wild swings toward Democrats, enough to edge out a victory in Fort Bend County outside Houston. Texas has a lot of vote-rich counties that swung D in 2016, so I can't tell what a tipping point would be.

D.) South Carolina --- Yeah, I don't see it flipping anytime soon. Upstate South Carolina is a fast-growing region, but it seems to be attracting mostly Republican-leaning voters.

E.) Alaska --- I see your logic here. Alaska is very prone to wild swings. Alaska natives don't really seem to have partisan loyalties, but they did show signs of trending D in 2016, IIRC. The only thing I see possibly hampering Democrats' chances here are third parties, and Alaska really seems to like third parties, regardless of ideology.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FhDzB5tK.jpg&hash=b2b63b8166de0efc9174b254d4a2463b

As you can see, if you combine Obama's '08 results with Clinton's '16 results, you get a narrow 1.5-2% Democratic win. this seems possible in 2020 if Trump is still so unpopular AND the Dems nominate an inspiring African-American candidate who can get black turnout up to Obama '08 levels, while keeping the Atlanta suburbs that Clinton won in 2016.

[NOVA Green]

As you can see, if you combine Obama's '08 results with Clinton's '16 results, you get a narrow 1.5-2% Democratic win. this seems possible in 2020 if Trump is still so unpopular AND the Dems nominate an inspiring African-American candidate who can get black turnout up to Obama '08 levels, while keeping the Atlanta suburbs that Clinton won in 2016.

Not seeing the graphic Tex...

Not sure if it is my browser or the method in which you attempted to upload the graphic....

Assuming based upon your content you are talking Georgia, and looking forward to seeing a visual representation, since the text context alone is a bit obscure to interpret....

[Arbitrage1980]

The result in GA last year was fascinating. Out of the 7 counties nationwide that voted for McCain and Romney but switched to Clinton, 3 of them were in GA: Cobb, Gwinnett (my hometown), and Henry. Stunning given that Cobb and Gwinnett had not gone to a Democrat since Carter 1976. During the 2016 primaries, I remember seeing the poll numbers from GA and thinking that Cobb or Gwinnett might flip. I know how much more diverse Gwinnett has gotten since I grew up there. And amongst the burgeoning latino and Asian populations, Trump was complete anathema. Anecdotally, I remember visiting home during thanksgiving 2004, and every other car and house had Bush-Cheney 04 stickers or yard signs. Bush won Gwinnett by 33 points that year. When I went home for thanksgiving last year, I only saw a few Trump-Pence signs. The shift was drastic.

[RINO Tom]

Bold prediction: the coalitions and "trends" that would make another state become "the next VA/CO" will have changed significantly enough to thwart such a change by the decade in which that change would show itself on election day.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

As you can see, if you combine Obama's '08 results with Clinton's '16 results, you get a narrow 1.5-2% Democratic win. this seems possible in 2020 if Trump is still so unpopular AND the Dems nominate an inspiring African-American candidate who can get black turnout up to Obama '08 levels, while keeping the Atlanta suburbs that Clinton won in 2016.

Not seeing the graphic Tex...

Not sure if it is my browser or the method in which you attempted to upload the graphic....

Assuming based upon your content you are talking Georgia, and looking forward to seeing a visual representation, since the text context alone is a bit obscure to interpret....

Fixed it, apparently I can't directly post pictures here so I just posted the link instead.

[Virginiá]

Fixed it, apparently I can't directly post pictures here so I just posted the link instead.

Some image providers won't load on Atlas. Imgur is one, but not the only.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Fixed it, apparently I can't directly post pictures here so I just posted the link instead.

Some image providers won't load on Atlas. Imgur is one, but not the only.

What image provider would you recommend I use to embed images here?

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Arizona could very well go blue in 2020, but it would require the correct candidate. I don't think there is much of a chance of Georgia or Texas doing the same in 2020 unless the Democratic wave against Trump is stronger than expected, but I would be surprised if those two states aren't competitive by 2024 or 2028.

[Vosem]

I can't believe any of the hype because North Carolina was hyped for a decade, only to fizzle. And when it did, we just stopped talking about it and started moving onto Georgia, South Carolina, yada yada I mean you might as well be shooting fish in a barrel these days. What about Florida? That should've trended Dem long ago but it never happened. In 2020-2024, the Dems should try and retake Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc. and reassemble the Obama coalition, period. Hug those states tight at all costs.

North Carolina didn't fizzle -- it went from solidly GOP in 2000/2004 to barely leaning in that direction now. The fact that bad 2016 polling showed it as an easy Clinton win and it wasn't doesn't make the state not a Democratic target, especially if they're talking up places like Georgia or Ohio.

[Tekken_Guy]

Arizona and Georgia obviously. I see Arizona as the next Colorado and Georgia as the next Virginia (or maybe the next NC).

[NOVA Green]

I can't believe any of the hype because North Carolina was hyped for a decade, only to fizzle. And when it did, we just stopped talking about it and started moving onto Georgia, South Carolina, yada yada I mean you might as well be shooting fish in a barrel these days. What about Florida? That should've trended Dem long ago but it never happened. In 2020-2024, the Dems should try and retake Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc. and reassemble the Obama coalition, period. Hug those states tight at all costs.

North Carolina didn't fizzle -- it went from solidly GOP in 2000/2004 to barely leaning in that direction now. The fact that bad 2016 polling showed it as an easy Clinton win and it wasn't doesn't make the state not a Democratic target, especially if they're talking up places like Georgia or Ohio.

Hmmm.... this is the first time I've checked back on this thread in over a week, and the more I think about it Vosem (Good to see you back posting a bit more these days!), made me think that NC might win the prize four election cycles from now for the "next VA/CO category"....

No offense to the OP, but maybe NC should have been on the voting list....

If one looks at the numbers NC has, even in recent history one of the highest level of support among "Whites" for Democratic candidates at the Presidential levels of almost any other State of the Old Confederacy....

Additionally, the combination of one of the highest overall level of education in the Southern States, and dramatic growth of professionals relocating to the largest Metro Areas within the State, certainly makes it the type of place potentially prone to moving from "tossup" or "narrow 'Pub" to a relatively solid +5-7% D State by 2032.

The main problem that I see is that Whites with a College degree  in '16 still went (58 R- 39 D), not to even mention the Whites w/o College Degree (69 R- 25 D)...

In order for NC to go from "tossup" to "Lean Dem" by 2032, naturally these numbers will need to improve significantly in both categories.....

I suspect that 2016 might have been an anomaly, and assuming Trump runs for reelection in 2020, NC will still be a toss-up/Lean R State....

But what about after the Trump Party is over?

Will the Trump coalition last "Post-Trump"? Most likely the 'Pub Party will reset, and will the Anglo voters that backed Trump in '16/ '20 (?) because of his economic protectionist and non-interventionist platform stick around?

Jesse Helms is no longer king in North Carolina, and his Coalition is crumbling and increasingly aging, while the New South rises upon the ashes of the old....

Still, economic protectionism is popular in a State that has seen massive job losses over decades as a result of "offshoring" starting with Textiles and later Furniture Assembly plants....

NC also has a proud and strong military tradition, but even at the home of the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF), the Republican Congressman Walter Jones has stated that Dick Cheney should "Rot in Hell" for the Iraq War, along with LBJ for Vietnam.... and is widely considered to be an "anti-interventionist" Republican in the heart of Helms Country....

The times they are a changin'

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/post/rep-walter-jones-cheney-to-rot-in-hell-for-iraq-war/2013/02/26/0beb36a8-802a-11e2-a350-49866afab584_blog.html?utm_term=.5b8ec3864eaa

[Heisenberg]

North Carolina wasn't on the list because it's no longer Solid R (at the Presidential level) and it's already competitive (but seems to be stabilizing at R+3 or so. This is asking about what states that were NOT competitive in 2012 will be Tossup/Tilt D or more in the future.

[Person Man]

For the sake of the downballot, GA, NC, TX, and AZ need to at least have the average voter open to voting for Democrats. Especially to make up for poorer performance in WI, IA, OH, and PA. Though I think Dems can turn it around in MI, MN, and PA

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The main problem that I see is that Whites with a College degree  in '16 still went (58 R- 39 D), not to even mention the Whites w/o College Degree (69 R- 25 D)...

In order for NC to go from "tossup" to "Lean Dem" by 2032, naturally these numbers will need to improve significantly in both categories.....

Wait, what? Whites with a college degree did not go for Trump 58-39. CNN has them as 48-45, NYT as 49-45. I'd guess the actual numbers are roughly even.

[Virginiá]

Wait, what? Whites with a college degree did not go for Trump 58-39. CNN has them as 48-45, NYT as 49-45. I'd guess the actual numbers are roughly even.

He is talking about whites in North Carolina.

[RINO Tom]

The main problem that I see is that Whites with a College degree  in '16 still went (58 R- 39 D), not to even mention the Whites w/o College Degree (69 R- 25 D)...

In order for NC to go from "tossup" to "Lean Dem" by 2032, naturally these numbers will need to improve significantly in both categories.....

Wait, what? Whites with a college degree did not go for Trump 58-39. CNN has them as 48-45, NYT as 49-45. I'd guess the actual numbers are roughly even.

Didn't like what the exit polls told ya, huh?  Must suck to realize that a Future Core Constituency™ of the Democratic Party doesn't even vote for it in plurality, LOL.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The main problem that I see is that Whites with a College degree  in '16 still went (58 R- 39 D), not to even mention the Whites w/o College Degree (69 R- 25 D)...

In order for NC to go from "tossup" to "Lean Dem" by 2032, naturally these numbers will need to improve significantly in both categories.....

Wait, what? Whites with a college degree did not go for Trump 58-39. CNN has them as 48-45, NYT as 49-45. I'd guess the actual numbers are roughly even.

Didn't like what the exit polls told ya, huh?  Must suck to realize that a Future Core Constituency™ of the Democratic Party doesn't even vote for it in plurality, LOL.

If you put the CNN exit poll numbers into a demographic calculator, they come up with a 4 point trump win. That didn't happen.

[Don Vito Corleone]

West Virginia. And the same way Virginia did too (growth around the DC area).

TBH I don't really think this is the most likely state to pull a VA, it's just the state I want to pull a VA the baddest.

[President Johnson]

Arizona by 2020 or 2024; Georgia in 2024 and afterwards. Texas may become a toss-up in the 2030s onward. On the other hand, I think that Iowa and Ohio will trend Republican. Wisconsin will be a toss-up, too.

[PragmaticPopulist]

West Virginia. And the same way Virginia did too (growth around the DC area).

TBH I don't really think this is the most likely state to pull a VA, it's just the state I want to pull a VA the baddest.

Jefferson county would have to get absolutely yuge and vote like Loudoun, VA for that to happen.  Like, there would have to be a congressional district entirely within it.

I see your point. I've been to Jefferson County, and it doesn't exactly feel like typical Trump country. It's unlikely anytime soon to make the state pull a VA, but the eastern panhandle seems to be not as Republican at the presidential level as the rest of the state, and is the fastest growing part of WV.

[twenty42]

I think the 2032 battleground map could look something like this...

[TheSaint250]

I think the 2032 battleground map could look something like this...

Why are Illinois, Kansas, and Alaska the way they are?

[twenty42]

I think the 2032 battleground map could look something like this...

Why are Illinois, Kansas, and Alaska the way they are?

Alaska--Will be swingy depending on third party candidacies.

Kansas--Will continue to trend slightly D in coming presidential elections and will become a fools' gold target.

Illinois--Will go the way of PA eventually, especially as the favorite son effect of Obama and Hillary moves further and further out of citizens' collective memory.

[Skunk]

the favorite son effect of Obama and Hillary moves further and further out of citizens' collective memory.

Does Hillary really have a "favorite son" effect in Illinois? She was born there but she doesn't have any connections to there really.