What outcome is more likely?

[Move Forward]

I've always had a distant feeling Trump was going to win the 2016 election. But as of now I don't have that feeling for him going into the 2020 election. Which is out outcome 3 is the likely one.

[m11dsauce]

I've always had a distant feeling Trump was going to win the 2016 election. But as of now I don't have that feeling for him going into the 2020 election. Which is out outcome 3 is the likely one.

As long as the Democratic Party puts out a candidate like Hillary with despicable marketing for campaigning, it wouldn't surprise me if they lost again.

But, the Trumperino needs to worry about losing support in his party first, if someone challenges him.

[dw93]

While I do think its possible that the Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of Victory again, I think a Democratic win in 2020 is more likely at this point. A cyclical recession is bound to hit between now and election day 2020, Trump has proven himself pretty ineffective as President thus far and that's with his own party in control of congress (the good news is the worst of his agenda isn't being implemented), and given how damaging Trump has been to our image in the world thus far, a international crisis is likely to break out. In short, Trump is more likely to be a Republican and immoral version of Jimmy Carter than he is to be the next great historic Republican figure.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump will be re-elected; Democrats can't get their act together, and Republicans have learned that challenging an incumbent of their own party never ends well.

[pbrower2a]

85% chance of losing either, which is about a 70% chance of losing both. 

[Del Tachi]

Trump will be re-elected while still losing the popular vote

[Globalist Cosmopolitan]

Option 3.

There is no way Trump is winning reelection. His 2016 victory was just a fluke.

[Coraxion]

Trump will be re-elected; Democrats can't get their act together

No. The only reason we're talking about whether Trump would get reelected is Emailgate. As long as the Democratic nominee isn't under investigation or some other scandal happens, they will win.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trump winning the Electoral College while losing the Popular Vote is most likely, followed by Trump losing both. There's no way he wins the Popular Vote while losing the Electoral College.

[mgop]

Trump will be re-elected; Democrats can't get their act together

No. The only reason we're talking about whether Trump would get reelected is Emailgate. As long as the Democratic nominee isn't under investigation or some other scandal happens, they will win.

you really think that only reason hillary lost was email scandal? lol delusion at it's best...

[Coraxion]

Trump will be re-elected; Democrats can't get their act together

No. The only reason we're talking about whether Trump would get reelected is Emailgate. As long as the Democratic nominee isn't under investigation or some other scandal happens, they will win.

you really think that only reason hillary lost was email scandal? lol delusion at it's best...

All three decisive states were within 1%. It's delusional to think that it isn't the cause of her loss.

Don't get me wrong, Clinton was by no means a good candidate. But she would've won if Comey hadn't said anything.

[BoJack Horseman]

If we nominate a black candidate who gets minority turnout to Obama levels, Trump doesn't stand a chance. Once we get Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Milwaukee back up to 90% D like they were in 2008/2012, it's all over for the racist cheeto.

[Coraxion]

If we nominate a black candidate who gets minority turnout to Obama levels, Trump doesn't stand a chance. Once we get Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Milwaukee back up to 90% D like they were in 2008/2012, it's all over for the racist cheeto.

Higher black turnout would also help in Florida and North Carolina (I think Georgia's out of reach unless the environment is really anti-Trump) as well. The big question is if black voters would turn out more for the second black major-party nominee. It would be less historic than Obama's candidacy.

[President Johnson]

50% chance Trump wins reelection with a popular vote defeat
49% chance he gets ousted by a Democrat
1% chance he both wins popular vote and electoral college