MA-WBUR: Warren cruising to reelection

[McGovernForPrez]

If Elizabeth Warren gets below 60% I will eat my shoe.

[McGovernForPrez]

If Elizabeth Warren gets below 60% I will eat my shoe.

There was a poll around here that asked whether Trump was going to get more than 60% in Waukesha county and he got 59.99%

That's hilarious, but I'm dead serious about this.  Warren is an obscenely strong incumbent here. If Markey could get 62% in a republican wave year, I have no doubt Warren can do it in an election where Trump is on referendum. The Republican party has absolutely no bench here right now. The only times incumbent Dem Senators have gotten less than 60% here were against extremely strong Republican opponents like Mitt Romney and Bill Weld. You guys can come back to this in a year and a half if you want.

[McGovernForPrez]

God this race is gonna be such a landslide. Republicans have no bench in this state whatsoever.

[McGovernForPrez]

God this race is gonna be such a landslide. Republicans have no bench in this state whatsoever.

What's Bill Weld up to?

As far as I know, nothing. It isn't like he'd do much good. He couldn't beat Kerry during the height of his popularity, so I doubt he could dent Warren as a washed up politician in a Trump midterm. Maybe if he hadn't ran on the libertarian ticket, but even then. Any MA Republican worth their salt wouldn't run in this environment.

[McGovernForPrez]

I know it would not happened in 2018 since Baker still is eligible for another term as governor, and will run, and most likely win, but if he faced Warren in 2018, who would win? I think Warren narrowly wins 49-46.

I don't think it would be that narrow. I don't think Baker is as good of a candidate as Bill Weld, and Bill Weld could only get within 8 points of Kerry.

[McGovernForPrez]

I know it would not happened in 2018 since Baker still is eligible for another term as governor, and will run, and most likely win, but if he faced Warren in 2018, who would win? I think Warren narrowly wins 49-46.

I don't think it would be that narrow. I don't think Baker is as good of a candidate as Bill Weld, and Bill Weld could only get within 8 points of Kerry.

I agree with that, but don't you think Warren is a much weaker candidate than Kerry? Plus she only got a little over 7 points on Brown in a blue year, and don't you think Baker is stronger than Brown?

I'm of two minds here. When Warren defeated Scott Brown, he was an incumbent. Brown already had a strongly established base in the state and Warren had to overcome that. I also think Brown is overall a weaker candidate than Baker but being am incumbent probably helped bridge that gap a bit. Also Warren is one hell of a fundraiser. I was looking at her records for another campaign and they're just so impressive. She was really good a courting moderate liberal woman here. I think if Liz ran for Governor against Baker the race would be lean D. Baker would be enough for me to move my rating from safe Dem to likely D though. Withe incumbency now on her side I don't think anybody can come close to her.

[McGovernForPrez]

I know it would not happened in 2018 since Baker still is eligible for another term as governor, and will run, and most likely win, but if he faced Warren in 2018, who would win? I think Warren narrowly wins 49-46.

I don't think it would be that narrow. I don't think Baker is as good of a candidate as Bill Weld, and Bill Weld could only get within 8 points of Kerry.

I agree with that, but don't you think Warren is a much weaker candidate than Kerry? Plus she only got a little over 7 points on Brown in a blue year, and don't you think Baker is stronger than Brown?

I'm of two minds here. When Warren defeated Scott Brown, he was an incumbent. Brown already had a strongly established base in the state and Warren had to overcome that. I also think Brown is overall a weaker candidate than Baker but being am incumbent probably helped bridge that gap a bit. Also Warren is one hell of a fundraiser. I was looking at her records for another campaign and they're just so impressive. She was really good a courting moderate liberal woman here. I think if Liz ran for Governor against Baker the race would be lean D. Baker would be enough for me to move my rating from safe Dem to likely D though. Withe incumbency now on her side I don't think anybody can come close to her.

Good points, hopefully Baker will never try to run against her though, since he is the only one that could even make it a race.

He'd be better off waiting to challenge Liz until 2022 in the chance that a Democrat is in office.