NV-PPP: Rosen +1
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  NV-PPP: Rosen +1
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Author Topic: NV-PPP: Rosen +1  (Read 4099 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #25 on: June 30, 2017, 05:01:33 PM »

Didn't PPP have a generic dem beat him by 7 though??
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Gustaf
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« Reply #26 on: July 01, 2017, 12:36:22 PM »

I think the bad news here is that we have enough national approval polls and the result from last year to be almost certain that Trump's approval in Nevada is worse than this poll indicates. That suggests this was a fairly Trump-friendly sample.

I mean, this has Heller as less popular than Trump and Trump lost Nevada to Clinton. Why would Heller then be able to beat a halfway competent candidate tailored to the state?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #27 on: July 01, 2017, 12:40:05 PM »

I think the bad news here is that we have enough national approval polls and the result from last year to be almost certain that Trump's approval in Nevada is worse than this poll indicates. That suggests this was a fairly Trump-friendly sample.

I mean, this has Heller as less popular than Trump and Trump lost Nevada to Clinton. Why would Heller then be able to beat a halfway competent candidate tailored to the state?
Well also more people seemed to respond one way or the other when asked about Trump instead of Heller, so it might be worth waiting to see how Heller's ratings go as the campaign continues.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #28 on: July 01, 2017, 12:45:34 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2017, 01:12:10 PM by MT Treasurer »

I mean, this has Heller as less popular than Trump and Trump lost Nevada to Clinton. Why would Heller then be able to beat a halfway competent candidate tailored to the state?

For the same reason so many people think Donnelly and McCaskill are favored: Incumbency.

It's ridiculous, and I agree with you that any halfway competent Democratic candidate will beat Heller. The only reason I'm not as sure of the outcome here as I am in IN and MO is that NV isn't really THAT Democratic, even though it leans blue obviously. The race is definitely Lean or Likely D, though.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #29 on: July 01, 2017, 04:28:09 PM »

I mean, this has Heller as less popular than Trump and Trump lost Nevada to Clinton. Why would Heller then be able to beat a halfway competent candidate tailored to the state?

For the same reason so many people think Donnelly and McCaskill are favored: Incumbency.
I can't speak for those who think Donnelly is favored, but that's not the reason I think McCaskill is favored. In 2012, she significantly outperformed her polls. The RCP average had her up 6.3%, she won by 15.7%. She seems to be underrated.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #30 on: July 03, 2017, 11:10:46 AM »

Nevada is notorious for underpolling Democrats. This is awful news for Heller.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #31 on: July 03, 2017, 08:08:51 PM »

Wasn't Rosen essentially hand-picked by Reid? Given the Democratic Party's rising dominance in Nevada (I'm assuming at least partially thanks to Reid and the political infrastructure he fostered there), I would take his confidence in her seriously (not that he can do no wrong, but still).
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