NV-PPP: Rosen +1

[heatcharger]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/poll-heller-rosen-in-dead-heat-in-senate-race

Rosen 42%
Heller 41%

[The Other Castro]

Heller job approval: 35-44 (-9)
Trump job approval: 44-51 (-7)
AHCA support: 31-55 (-24)

[Classic Conservative]

Heller job approval: 35-44 (-9)
Trump job approval: 44-51 (-7)
AHCA support: 31-55 (-24)

If Trump has 44% in NV he's not at 36% nationwide.

[_]

If more polling shows a race like this then my rating this Tossup should be vindicated, until then I will be cautious, but the fact that a democratic leaning poll is showing a nearly tied race here seems like good news.

[_]

Heller job approval: 35-44 (-9)
Trump job approval: 44-51 (-7)
AHCA support: 31-55 (-24)

If Trump has 44% in NV he's not at 36% nationwide.

You underestimate the power of California, New York, and Illinois my friend.

[Classic Conservative]

Heller job approval: 35-44 (-9)
Trump job approval: 44-51 (-7)
AHCA support: 31-55 (-24)

If Trump has 44% in NV he's not at 36% nationwide.

You underestimate the power of California, New York, and Illinois my friend.

I live in MA, I fully understand but in reality it isn't 36% probably 40%.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Heller job approval: 35-44 (-9)
Trump job approval: 44-51 (-7)
AHCA support: 31-55 (-24)

If Trump has 44% in NV he's not at 36% nationwide.

You underestimate the power of California, New York, and Illinois my friend.

I live in MA, I fully understand but in reality it isn't 36% probably 40%.

For every poll showing him in the mid-30s, there is another at break-even levels.  In reality, he has (for modern standards) middling approval and is simply polarizing, rather than unpopular.

[Mike Thick]

Heller job approval: 35-44 (-9)
Trump job approval: 44-51 (-7)
AHCA support: 31-55 (-24)

If Trump has 44% in NV he's not at 36% nationwide.

Or perhaps the inverse

[Pollster]

This poll implies the trends from last year are continuing, and it will be the death of the GOP in Nevada. Nevada Republicans are very Trumpy (evidenced by Trump's better approval numbers than Heller's, the damage that was done to Joe Heck by his disendorsement, the polling leads Trump periodically held, Sharron Angle's primary victory 2010) but Trump-style Republicanism is a massive turn-off to the remainder of the state's electorate. Nevada presents itself as one of the few non deep-blue states (possibly AZ and/or TX as well) in which Trump is poised to do serious damage to the GOP.

[Vosem]

Why does early Nevada polling always have a ludicrous number of undecideds? This song and dance plays out every Senate election cycle.

[Skye]

Could be worse, but his opponent isn't known statewide, so there's that.

[Cactus Jack]

Obviously it's way too early to be certain of anything, but if this is is what Heller's numbers look like now, before the midterms have had a chance to really wind up and despite his opposition to Trump's healthcare monstrosity, he's in pretty dire shape.

[Skunk]

I will be astounded if Heller ends up winning.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obviously it's way too early to be certain of anything, but if this is is what Heller's numbers look like now, before the midterms have had a chance to really wind up and despite his opposition to Trump's healthcare monstrosity, he's in pretty dire shape.

We're probably going to look back on this and laugh after it's immediately called once the polls close in November 2018.

An immediate call won't happen -  NV Pres 2008 wasn't an immediate call.

[Xing]

Could be worse, but his opponent isn't known statewide, so there's that.

That's a good point, and is why I think this is a troubling poll for Heller, especially since... well, you all know how NV polling can be.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Endorsed! She has proven her colors and I believe she stands a good chance.

[InheritTheWind]

Heller has a history of beating the polls- remember Shelly Berkley? That said, his approvals being lower than Trump (which I kinda doubt, but whatever) and Rosen being a far better candidate than Berkley do not bode well for him. This race is a tossup.

[Person Man]

Heller has a history of beating the polls- remember Shelly Berkley? That said, his approvals being lower than Trump (which I kinda doubt, but whatever) and Rosen being a far better candidate than Berkley do not bode well for him. This race is a tossup.

And he's running in an anti-incumbent year unless there is a sudden increase in productivity or a war.

[_]

Just looked back at 2012 to see the results and polls then, how did a Paleoconservative Candidate get nearly 5%?

[Young Conservative]

The margin of disapproval on the AHCA has greatly improved if this is accurate. That's actually much better than I anticipated. Also, Trump's job approval margin is better than Heller's? That's probably due to Republican disapproval of Heller when I think about it... All in all, this isn't a good poll for the Nevada GOP or Senate GOP, but it means there's a fight here. Heller is not DOA.

[The Other Castro]

The margin of disapproval on the AHCA has greatly improved if this is accurate. That's actually much better than I anticipated. Also, Trump's job approval margin is better than Heller's? That's probably due to Republican disapproval of Heller when I think about it... All in all, this isn't a good poll for the Nevada GOP or Senate GOP, but it means there's a fight here. Heller is not DOA.

Heller's never been DOA, and certainly isn't this far out, but he is definitely in trouble.

[BudgieForce]

Heller job approval: 35-44 (-9)
Trump job approval: 44-51 (-7)
AHCA support: 31-55 (-24)

If Trump has 44% in NV he's not at 36% nationwide.

You underestimate the power of California, New York, and Illinois my friend.

I live in MA, I fully understand but in reality it isn't 36% probably 40%.

For every poll showing him in the mid-30s, there is another at break-even levels.  In reality, he has (for modern standards) middling approval and is simply polarizing, rather than unpopular.

Where are they? Where are these break even polls?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

PPP has Trump at -11 nationwide, a -7 in a swing state is within that range.

[jamestroll]

I am not calling anyone DOA this early in the cycle and it should be noted that Nevada both swung and trended Republican last year and the GOP did well well there in 2014.

But Heller is in trouble and lets not forget his opponent was this lady:



But seriously I rate it as tilt Democratic until more information comes out.

[Cruzcrew]

A 44% approval rating for Trump in a poll of RVs certainly isn't out of the question since polling of RVs have him in the low 40s range. It's quite possible a midterm electorate in NV with such a high amount of Hispanics and Asians (low turnout groups for midterms) that we'd see the voters with a mid 40s approval rating of Trump if things don't drastically change.

[JMT]

I doubt Jacky Rosen has a lead at all. I don't think the state even knows her yet. Rosen may also have a crowded primary since it's so early as well so Heller could focus on fundraising. Oh well, who knows anymore, politics have changed.

Because Rosen has Harry Reid's blessing in this race, I doubt the primary gets crowded. Same thing occurred in 2016. Other Dems could have ran, but since Catherine Cortez Masto was Reid's candidate, she did not have a serious primary. I suspect the same thing will happen to Rosen, considering Reid still has enormous clout in Nevada politics. Dina Titus may run, but I doubt she does. She has done barely any fundraising, and challenging Rosen may be difficult, and the general would be hard fought. I think Titus ends up running for reelection to the House, its a safe seat and she can have it for as long as she wants it. She wont want to take the risk. Even if Titus challenged Rosen, I think Rosen would win.