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March 08, 2021, 01:16:28 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: ON Progressive)
  Why did Romney underperform so much? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why did Romney underperform so much?  (Read 6917 times)
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,043
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

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« on: July 03, 2017, 04:03:49 PM »

I wouldn't say Romney seemed to lack empathy, but whatever.  I think the answer is, for however reckless he was with the overall state of the Democratic Party, Obama was a good Presidential candidate who resonated with a lot of people.  If he hadn't lost a lot of racist former Democrats in 2008 (aka had been a White male), he would have won in an absolute landslide.  NOTE: this is not even close to saying that people who didn't vote for him were racists, as I did not support the guy, but there were certainly a significant number of Democrats who voted for out-of-touch-Massachusetts-liberal John Kerry and refused to vote for Obama, likely because of his race.

What?
Yeah outside of Arkansa this was obviously not the case in most southern states which moved about couple percentage point away from Obama (and a chunk of that was probably generational replacement).

In an election where the country moved 8 points in the Democrats' direction, Oklahoma moved .15% to McCain, Louisiana moved 4.12% toward McCain, Tennessee moved .80% toward McCain, West Virginia moved 2.26% toward McCain and Arkansas moved an almost astounding 10.09% toward the Republican ticket.

Again, I'd like to hear another hypothesis why a very significant chunk of former Democratic voters would vote for John Kerry but not Barrack Obama.  Both are socially liberal, more "academic" types from highly populated areas who were accused by the Republicans of being out of touch with Middle America and elitist.
Maybe there were still a few yellow-dog stragglers left when Kerry ran, and they died off and/or switched to voting Republican starting in 2008. The same thing happened in southwestern Virginia (or VA-09). Obama was the first Democrat since George McGovern to lose all SW VA counties aside from Montgomery County, home of Virginia Tech.
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PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,043
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

P P P

« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2017, 04:31:17 PM »

I wouldn't say Romney seemed to lack empathy, but whatever.  I think the answer is, for however reckless he was with the overall state of the Democratic Party, Obama was a good Presidential candidate who resonated with a lot of people.  If he hadn't lost a lot of racist former Democrats in 2008 (aka had been a White male), he would have won in an absolute landslide.  NOTE: this is not even close to saying that people who didn't vote for him were racists, as I did not support the guy, but there were certainly a significant number of Democrats who voted for out-of-touch-Massachusetts-liberal John Kerry and refused to vote for Obama, likely because of his race.

What?
Yeah outside of Arkansa this was obviously not the case in most southern states which moved about couple percentage point away from Obama (and a chunk of that was probably generational replacement).

In an election where the country moved 8 points in the Democrats' direction, Oklahoma moved .15% to McCain, Louisiana moved 4.12% toward McCain, Tennessee moved .80% toward McCain, West Virginia moved 2.26% toward McCain and Arkansas moved an almost astounding 10.09% toward the Republican ticket.

Again, I'd like to hear another hypothesis why a very significant chunk of former Democratic voters would vote for John Kerry but not Barrack Obama.  Both are socially liberal, more "academic" types from highly populated areas who were accused by the Republicans of being out of touch with Middle America and elitist.
Maybe there were still a few yellow-dog stragglers left when Kerry ran, and they died off and/or switched to voting Republican starting in 2008. The same thing happened in southwestern Virginia (or VA-09). Obama was the first Democrat since George McGovern to lose all SW VA counties aside from Montgomery County, home of Virginia Tech.

And you don't think his race played any part in that?
Sure, there were probably voters at the margins motivated by racist sentiment, but 5 years later, that region voted overwhelmingly for a black pastor for lieutenant Governor.
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