Would Mitt Romney have won without hurricane sandy

[Da2017]

Was Obama lucky?

[Phony Moderate]

Nah, the second debate (a couple of weeks prior) stalled his momentum. He might possibly have won Florida without it though.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

He woulda lost anyway.

[The_Doctor]

Probably not. He consistently trailed Obama. (I feel, controversially, even without Comey, Clinton would've lost).

[Elephantx10Reilm]

Hmmm, i dot't think this is true

[AudmanOut]

He woulda lost anyway.

Yep, eharding was/is right!

[darklordoftech]

No. Romney was Dole 2.0.

[dw93]

No. Romney was Dole 2.0.

I wouldn't go that far. Unlike Dole, Romney had a chance to win, it's just that he ran a bad campaign and Obama, despite vulnerabilities ran as strong if not stronger than he did in 2008.

[TML]

According to exit polls, less than 10% of the electorate decided on their votes in the final days leading up to Election Day, and this group went for Obama by 6 points. The net effect of these late deciders gave Obama a boost of less than 1 point. Thus, this was clearly far from decisive (the tipping point state that year, Colorado, was decided by more than 5 points).

[NHI]

No. Romney was Dole 2.0.

I wouldn't go that far. Unlike Dole, Romney had a chance to win, it's just that he ran a bad campaign and Obama, despite vulnerabilities ran as strong if not stronger than he did in 2008.

[swords]

without sandy

Romney
206+FL= 235.

NH,OH,VA more competitive but Obama carried anyway.

[brucejoel99]

Nah, the second debate (a couple of weeks prior) stalled his momentum. He might possibly have won Florida without it though.

This. Mittmentum was a lie after the 2nd debate & Obama was steadily growing even before Sandy. The margin may have been closer but Obama still would've won.

No. Romney was Dole 2.0.

I wouldn't go that far. Unlike Dole, Romney had a chance to win, it's just that he ran a bad campaign and Obama, despite vulnerabilities ran as strong if not stronger than he did in 2008.

[Reconciliation and Unity Are Two-Way Streets]

I tend to say "No" but I suspect it MIGHT have been closer without Sandy.

Romney DID have some small national leads in polling after the 1st debate; he did change the structure of the election in that 1st debate as he was CLEARLY losing before that.  I think Romney might have been in a position, at one point, to carry the popular vote but lose the Electoral College.

The clutch states for Obama were Ohio and Florida, which Obama pulled out by very small margins.  No one even thought about Iowa and New Hampshire as being anything but likely Obama in 2012.  Those states weren't really affected by Sandy.

[Teflon Joe.]

I wonder if Chris Christie's hug of Obama after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 destroyed his chances in the 2016 GOP primary?

[Da2017]

without sandy

Romney
206+FL= 235.

NH,OH,VA more competitive but Obama carried anyway.

This more or less. Ohio was an uphill battle for Romney. Virginia I think would barely go to Obama.

[America Needs Jesus Christ]

He might have won the popular vote (the Gallup polling swung to Obama by 6 points during and after Sandy), but would not have won the EC (I say that he only flips FL and VA and loses 290-248).

[brucejoel99]

I wonder if Chris Christie's hug of Obama after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 destroyed his chances in the 2016 GOP primary?

Chris Christie being Chris Christie is what destroyed his chances in the 2016 GOP primary.