MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!

[PragmaticPopulist]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-baker-governor-20170620-story.html

Could make a play for the same base as Jealous, splitting the base and allowing another Democrat, such as Kevin Kamenetz or John Delaney, to win the primary.

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is rapidly approaching clown-car level.

Why so? Baker seems like a solid candidate, and Delaney would probably be the most-recognized name in the group. Aside from his unique name, I don't think Jealous has much appeal outside the Bernie base, and Maryland isn't a Sander-esque sort of state.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Baker or Delaney will probably get the most establishment support. Delaney reps Montgomery County, while Baker reps Prince George's. As both are the highest populated in the state, turnout, as well as appeal in the Baltimore area, would likely decide the primary (this assumes Delaney runs).

You don't think Alec Ross has a shot?

Doubtful at this moment, since he doesn't have much name recognition. Of course, that could change.

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is rapidly approaching clown-car level.

Why so? Baker seems like a solid candidate, and Delaney would probably be the most-recognized name in the group. Aside from his unique name, I don't think Jealous has much appeal outside the Bernie base, and Maryland isn't a Sander-esque sort of state.

Just five candidates already for a seat that'll be incredibly difficult to pry off the Republicans.

Hogan is definitely favored for reelection right now, but that doesn't mean he's definitely gonna survive. Maryland doesn't have as long a history of electing moderate Republican governors as Massachusetts or Connecticut (Ehrlich was the first Republican governor since Spiro Agnew), and isn't very elastic on the state level. Ehrlich was also defeated in 2006 when he had a net positive approval rating.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Jealous will do better with African Americans than Bernie but the thing is it is a multi-cornered race with many serious contenders in. So the winner will likely get 30-35% of the vote probably. If Jealous gets the Bernie voters to turn up & vote, he will win this. Ofcourse he could always expand the base.

It will be interesting to see what kind of campaign he runs !

It's not even clear that Jealous will beat Baker among African-American voters, tbh.

PG County is heavily black, and was a very Pro-Clinton county in the primary. Jealous will have to cut into Baker's base here to have any chance. And even then, it could allow another candidate to squeak by.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hogan was to cut higher education and juvenile justice in the upcoming budget.

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I can see D campaign ads hitting Hogan over this. Cutting higher education is toxic in MD, especially in the DC suburbs.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Baltimote County Executive Kevin Kamenetz in.

He won reelection by 12.5% even as Hogan was walloping Brown there by 20%.

Endorsed.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Baltimote County Executive Kevin Kamenetz in.

He won reelection by 12.5% even as Hogan was walloping Brown there by 20%.

Endorsed.

Excellent news for Governor Hogan's reelection campaign!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDVEE_Mt7sA

And he later apologized with humor, unlike what Trumpists would do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2khRIqOQfQQ

[PragmaticPopulist]

Jealous will probably lose the primary but I'd be interested in hearing our resident MDers takes on his chances.

Maryland doesn't like candidates like Jealous. Just look at how Bernie Sanders got destroyed in the Maryland primary.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Jealous will probably lose the primary but I'd be interested in hearing our resident MDers takes on his chances.

Maryland doesn't like candidates like Jealous. Just look at how Bernie Sanders got destroyed in the Maryland primary.

Jamie Raskin would like to have a word with you.

1) Not a statewide race

2) Are you familiar with the term "proving the rule with the exception?"

First, let me give my take on Jealous. I will almost definitely support him in the gubernatorial primary, as he is probably the most progressive candidate in the race.

I don't think there's some sort of "inherent centrism" in Maryland, unless if you only look at Ben Cardin (and even he isn't as centrist as, say, the Clintons). Paul Sarbanes, our state's longest-serving Senator in history, was one of the leaders of the left wing of the Democratic Party, and I wouldn't exactly call Mikulski a Clintonite. Despite my support for Edwards in the primary, I would consider Van Hollen to be quite progressive, and I would say that at least a few of my fellow MD berniecrats agree.

The reason that I brought up Raskin was because I think that a Jealous primary win would look very similar to a Raskin primary win. There are two main reasons as to why he won:
1) By far the most grassroots support - who gets excited about Kathleen Matthews?
2) A divided opposition - he won with 33.6% of the vote. Though to his credit, he was severely outspent.

Now, look at the current field. There are several candidates present, but none of them are really well-known, household-name politicians. Furthermore, Jealous is the only one who is seriously courting progressive voters, and is likely to have the most grassroots support. These are the main two factors that got Raskin to win in 2016, in an arguably harder-to-win environment (MD-08 is wealthier and more suburban than Maryland as a whole).

There is definitely a winning coalition that he could form in order to win the primary, which has three main parts:
1) African-Americans. This is by far the most important element, as they make up ~40% of the electorate (IIRC). This is also where his political strength would be most apparent, with him being the former head of the NAACP and all. A big factor here is how influential Rushern Baker is in PG county.
2) Rural Democrats in Western Maryland and Cecil County, where Bernie won. His economic progressivism could play well there.
3) Whatever progressive Democrats he could pick off in Montgomery (such as myself), Howard, and Baltimore County, Raskin-style.

Do I think that he will win? No; he's still definitely favored to lose, as he will face the similar challenges that Sanders and Edwards did due to the largely suburban nature of the state. But is he DOA? Absolutely not, and I think everyone who think he is should seriously re-assess their analysis.

With a gun to my head, I would say that Jealous has a 30% chance of winning the primary, and a 55% chance of winning the general if he gets past the primary. These numbers are largely arbitrary.

The biggest obstacle that I think Jealous will face is that his support for single-payer could actually be a liability in MD. With the health care industry being such a large employer here, the transition could result in the industry going into disarray, with health care workers being laid off.

Democratic primary voters also seem to value elected experience, so that could also be a problem for him in the primary.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I would say that your second point is more valid, but keep in mind that Larry Hogan had never held elected office prior to being elected governor.

He's literally the first Governor of Maryland without elected experience since Augustus Bradford was elected in 1862. Besides, it seems like the Republican primary electorate prefers candidates without elected experience more than the Democratic electorate.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Maya Rockeymoore Cummings is in.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sen. Van Hollen is endorsing Rushern Baker.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I endorse Rushern Baker.

As a native of PG County, I'm with you there.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Welp, Cummings is out, reportedly because of Elijah Cummings' health. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/rockeymoore-cummings-drops-out-of-maryland-governors-race/2018/01/05/6f3e1fa4-f230-11e7-b3bf-ab90a706e175_story.html?utm_term=.0b640a553f48

[PragmaticPopulist]

Welp, Cummings is out, reportedly because of Elijah Cummings' health. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/rockeymoore-cummings-drops-out-of-maryland-governors-race/2018/01/05/6f3e1fa4-f230-11e7-b3bf-ab90a706e175_story.html?utm_term=.0b640a553f48

Well then. She’s probably going to go after his seat now.

I usually loathe dynastic politics, but I'd be okay with her taking his seat. It's unfortunate that she's no longer in the gubernatorial election. The gubernatorial election is back to being a sausage party, unfortunately.

I wouldn't call the campaign a total Sausage Party. Rushern Baker is a pretty serious candidate that should at least give Hogan a scare. It's Jealous who I'm afraid could throw the general election to Hogan.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Politics1.com
‏
 
@Politics1com
 1h1 hour ago
"I applaud and thank Gov Larry Hogan" (R) for his effort to help Baltimore public schools - Mayor Catherine Pugh (D)

Hogan will be reelected comfortably.

What a cuck.

Depends, if she got more money for Baltimore city schools in exchange then I think she did the right thing, but if this is just the crap we saw from NJ Dems with Christie in 2013 then this is obviously awful.  Btw, can we please stop using the term "cuck?"  Surely we can think of our own insults, no?

MD politicians have never been very partisan, so Pugh was just doing what any decent Marylander would do.

[PragmaticPopulist]

4th Q fundraising:

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https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1/18/1732783/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-1-18?t=1516293372755#update-1516293372000

Where's Baker???

Anyway, damn good haul for Hogan, and who are Shea and Ross?  And how'd they get so much money?

If you click through to the article linked in the Daily Kos link, Baker raised approx 1m and has 696k in the bank.

Just remember that Hogan was badly outspent in 2014, and it didn't save Brown.

[PragmaticPopulist]

What the hell is this post subject?

This:

Hogan protects Trump: Maryland lawmakers promised Attorney General Brian Frosh $1 million and five new lawyers to file lawsuits against the Trump administration next year, but Republican Gov. Larry Hogan left that money out of his budget.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Kamala Harris expected to endorse Ben Jealous today

And this will change what exactly?

Jealous is an underdog in the primary, and people here don't care/don't want national politicians weighing into a state election.

[PragmaticPopulist]

https://twitter.com/RushernBaker/status/979008583361810433


Rushern Baker
‏ @RushernBaker

"Hogan repeatedly made private promises and deals to gun rights advocates, all while refusing to take any public stance on gun safety during his campaign." http://www.dbknews.com/2018/03/28/nra-gun-control-maryland-hogan/ … @OpinionDBK

Didn't know about this before, but Hogan apparently does have an A- NRA rating, and refused to pass anything following the Las Vegas shooting.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Doesn't MD have gun controls already?  How much more could it possibly need?!  It's as if these people are never satisfied...

Here's a few laws under consideration by the legislature right now. I happen to agree with all of them. https://www.abc2news.com/news/political/senate-to-review-stricter-gun-laws-in-maryland

[PragmaticPopulist]

Maryland has one of the strictest gun laws in America. How much more does MD and NJ by the way need?

I support some of the March of our Lives agenda, but some states already have tough gun control laws.

Strengthen some of those laws a bit, give the law abiding gun owner room to protect themselves.

Democrats are between a rock and a hard place with guns. Same with the Republicans.

Hogan has a conservative base in Baltimore County and elsewhere, he has to walk a fine line.

Baltimore County is a swing county on the state level, and a safely Democratic one on the federal level. I doubt he wins it by as much as he did in 2014, but it he needs to keep the margin in like, high single-digits there to win statewide.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Former Gov. Paris Glendening is backing Baker.

Unsurprising though, since Glendening himself is a former County Executive of PG County, just like Baker is.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hogan has signed a few new gun laws.

I wonder if this will make the NRA sour on him.