I think Northam wins by 2-4 points election day. If I had to call it now, Northam +2.8 or so.
Gillespie needs the Stewart voters to get out to vote for him in record numbers while not alienating "moderate swing voters" in NoVA. Not an easy balancing act.
All in an environment where Trump is unpopular as the incumbent Democratic Governor is.
McAuliffe is much more popular than Trump: Gov. Terry McAuliffe currently has a 47 to 37 percent job approval rating.
http://www.nbc12.com/story/35716863/quinnipiac-releases-first-va-governors-race-pollProbably not a surprise that McCauliffe's approval ratings virtually mirror the poll in the governor's race.