NV-SEN: Rosen in

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058726829773582336

https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058756401894289408

It's looking good for Jacky Rosen and Steve Sisolak.

[J. J.]

A mixed bag. 

Heller is still up in the RCP average.  In the polls where he is losing, his numbers are stable or improving, same poll to same poll.

That said,, in 2016, Trump overpolled in NV 3.2 points.  Heller is ahead by 1.0.  Gravis was the most correct poll in NV in 2016, showing Clinton by 2 points; she carried NV by 2.4.  Today, Gravis shows Rosen winning by 2 points. 

The last poll where the difference was outside of the MOI was June.

[ON Progressive]

Heller is still up in the RCP average.  In the polls where he is losing, his numbers are stable or improving, same poll to same poll.

Nevada polling is absolutely garbage. See this post showing proof of that.

[J. J.]

Heller is still up in the RCP average.  In the polls where he is losing, his numbers are stable or improving, same poll to same poll.

Nevada polling is absolutely garbage. See this post showing proof of that.

That was the point of my second paragraph. 

[MT Treasurer]

Republican Senate candidates more likely to win than Dean Heller:

- Mike Braun
- Josh Hawley
- Rick Scott
- Martha McSally
- Maryland Matt
- Patrick Morrisey
- Marsha Blackburn
- Ted Cruz

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hot take: I think Rosen outruns Susie Lee in Rosen’s current CD.

[YE]

Hot take: I think Rosen outruns Susie Lee in Rosen’s current CD.

Doubtful given that the district is as close as one can get in the state to being a wealthy suburbanite district in the state who are more likely to vote D just to have a check on Trump in the House.

[RI]

Heller has two things going for him right now:

1) The early and absentee vote is more Republican than in 2016
2) Hispanic turnout is quite low so far

The question will really be how he performs among independents. He did well in 2012 with them, but he's facing some major headwinds this time around.

[Xing]

Ralston has made his predictions:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday

NV-SEN: Rosen wins 48-46 (D Gain)

NV-GOV: Sisolak wins 48-46 (D Gain)

NV-03: Lee wins 49-46 (D Hold)

NV-04: Horsford wins 52-46 (D Hold)

He also predicts that Democrats will have 13 seats in the state Senate, and 26 in the Assembly. He gives a pretty scathing review of Heller, but lest people claim that he's "biased", he nailed the Senate races in 2010, 2012, and 2016.

[YE]

I mostly agree with Ralston’s predictions but I’m more bullish on the Dem chances in downballot statewide offices than he is. Also think Lee wins by more than 3.

[Skye]

Ralston has made his predictions:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday

NV-SEN: Rosen wins 48-46 (D Gain)

NV-GOV: Sisolak wins 48-46 (D Gain)

NV-03: Lee wins 49-46 (D Hold)

NV-04: Horsford wins 52-46 (D Hold)

He also predicts that Democrats will have 13 seats in the state Senate, and 26 in the Assembly. He gives a pretty scathing review of Heller, but lest people claim that he's "biased", he nailed the Senate races in 2010, 2012, and 2016.

Somewhat what I'm expecting.

[OneJ]

With the way things went with Early voting, I would say that Rosen and Sisolak will probably win by 4 points. A little overconfident? Probably.

[IceSpear]

With the way things went with Early voting, I would say that Rosen and Sisolak will probably win by 4 points. A little overconfident? Probably.

Not overconfident, that could easily happen. Ralston apparently thinks independents will break for Heller for some reason. If they don't, Rosen could easily win by 4 points or more.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[OneJ]

With the way things went with Early voting, I would say that Rosen and Sisolak will probably win by 4 points. A little overconfident? Probably.

Not overconfident, that could easily happen. Ralston apparently thinks independents will break for Heller for some reason. If they don't, Rosen could easily win by 4 points or more.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Okay, those scenarios do look pretty reassuring to me. I do think Rosen and Sisolak should win Independents partially due to the nature of the environment anyway along with the fact that Heller and Trump are both unpopular in the state as well.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jacky Rosen now leads in the rcp average after a long time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hilarious:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059550538528784384

[J. J.]

Back to a tie on RCP.

Rosen's margin, 1.2.