NV-SEN: Rosen in

[IceSpear]

Two possibilities here:

1) Rosen wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling it lean R.
2) Heller wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling dozens of other races wrong, because Heller is not winning during an otherwise good environment for the Democrats.

It's hilarious how he incorporates so much irrelevant BS into his model but doesn't bother to account for the fact that NV polls are always garbage.

[MT Treasurer]

Two possibilities here:

1) Rosen wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling it lean R.
2) Heller wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling dozens of other races wrong, because Heller is not winning during an otherwise good environment for the Democrats.

3) Rosen wins, several Democratic incumbents lose simultaneously, Nate looks like even more of an idiot.

[Mehmentum]

Two possibilities here:

1) Rosen wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling it lean R.
2) Heller wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling dozens of other races wrong, because Heller is not winning during an otherwise good environment for the Democrats.

3) Rosen wins, several Democratic incumbents lose simultaneously, Nate looks like even more of an idiot.

Isn't that the same as option 2?

[Zaybay]

Two possibilities here:

1) Rosen wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling it lean R.
2) Heller wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling dozens of other races wrong, because Heller is not winning during an otherwise good environment for the Democrats.

3) Rosen wins, several Democratic incumbents lose simultaneously, Nate looks like even more of an idiot.

Isn't that the same as option 2?

Its kinda the inverse. Basically, Rosen wins, but states that were lean D, like FL, MT, IN, WV and the like flip.

[MT Treasurer]

Two possibilities here:

1) Rosen wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling it lean R.
2) Heller wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling dozens of other races wrong, because Heller is not winning during an otherwise good environment for the Democrats.

3) Rosen wins, several Democratic incumbents lose simultaneously, Nate looks like even more of an idiot.

Isn't that the same as option 2?

Its kinda the inverse. Basically, Rosen wins, but states that were lean D, like FL, MT, IN, WV and the like flip.

Pretty much. Maybe not FL, MT, WV, but say, Dems win NV while losing IN, MO, ND, AZ.

[libertpaulian]

Two possibilities here:

1) Rosen wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling it lean R.
2) Heller wins, Nate looks like an idiot for calling dozens of other races wrong, because Heller is not winning during an otherwise good environment for the Democrats.

3) Rosen wins, several Democratic incumbents lose simultaneously, Nate looks like even more of an idiot.

Isn't that the same as option 2?

Its kinda the inverse. Basically, Rosen wins, but states that were lean D, like FL, MT, IN, WV and the like flip.

Pretty much. Maybe not FL, MT, WV, but say, Dems win NV while losing IN, MO, ND.

Ugh, please don't speak an IN loss into existence.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's not like Nate Silver deliberately moves races into one category or another.  They are categorized based on the probability from the model.  

The threshold between "Toss-Up" and "Lean" is 60.0%.  Heller crossed that threshold today (to 60.4%) but his actual probability of winning only rose 0.5% (in the Classic model).  It's still toss-up in the Deluxe model.

[IceSpear]

It's not like Nate Silver deliberately moves races into one category or another.  They are categorized based on the probability from the model.  

The threshold between "Toss-Up" and "Lean" is 60.0%.  Heller crossed that threshold today (to 60.4%) but his actual probability of winning only rose 0.5% (in the Classic model).  It's still toss-up in the Deluxe model.

Yes, the model is indeed junk. Mostly due to the trashdamentals putting so much weight on muh incumbency.

[MT Treasurer]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

They should fire him and get GEM on the show.

[IceSpear]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

I'm not watching 15 mins of that bull so if someone can summarize I would appreciate it a lot.

[Xing]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

No, Patrick, Nevada is not a "very tough state" for Democrats.

Colorado is not a "very tough state" either.

EDIT: Also, someone needs to inform "expert" John King that Trump did not win Nevada. Apparently he's not aware, lol.

[Aurelio21]

First of all @Party hacks, concern trolls(which already see DJ Trump crowning himself as Emperor Donald Frederick I with Jon King applying as Bed Chamberlain):

In the end of the day, Rosen will win this race by a whisker. At this very Moment (2018/10/28) there are several factors to consider:

Pro-Heller factors:
- High Motivation of GOP rural voters in EV/VBM except for Washoe County
- DJ Trump appealing emotionally to WWC voters ("Caravan") and DEMs failing to counter appropiately on this level
- Polls show him leading, despite conflicting numbers of

Pro-Rosen factors:
- High motivation of minority within the DEM voter coalition (see polls of Latino Decisions)
- Liberatarian-minded independents can't stomach Mr Trump
- GOP's rural voters tendency to be already turned out without denting the DEMs advantage in EV/VMB totals (Clark County Firewall on track according to Mr Ralston)
- Last but not least: Even if everbody here thinks that the #MAGAbomber and the deadly assault on Jews in PA won't make any of the Trump Coalition stop voting: Yes, the effect on a macro scale like the GCB  is not measurable. Yet there is a sizable MORMON vote in Nevada. These voters are remembered, that a certain fellow in Pennsylvania Avenue 1600 seemingly does not mind violence against minorities. Like themselves in their own history. Despite being cultural conservative:In a close election, they will be motivated either A) to go to the polls or B) stay at home and disband their close ties to the GOP.


If a certain prominent Mormon and former DEM leader in the senate plays this right, then these critical voters will push Mrs Rosen over the finish line first.

[Woody]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

No, Patrick, Nevada is not a "very tough state" for Democrats.

Colorado is not a "very tough state" either.

EDIT: Also, someone needs to inform "expert" John King that Trump did not win Nevada. Apparently he's not aware, lol.

King is 100% right. Heller has successfully made a coalition of trump voters ready to vote in his command, and moderates who can't stomach Rosen as their senator. Heller will narrowly hold on.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

No, Patrick, Nevada is not a "very tough state" for Democrats.

Colorado is not a "very tough state" either.

EDIT: Also, someone needs to inform "expert" John King that Trump did not win Nevada. Apparently he's not aware, lol.

King is 100% right. Heller has successfully made a coalition of trump voters ready to vote in his command, and moderates who can't stomach Rosen as their senator. Heller will narrowly hold on.

Rosen is winning more moderates/independents than Hillary and Hillary won the state. Nevada polls are underestimating dem turnout like they've done every other election in the past decade.

I saw the same sh!t in Virginia which allowed me to predict a big Northam win while all of the Republicans thought Gillespie was going to win.

[Aurelio21]

King is 100% right. Heller has successfully made a coalition of trump voters ready to vote in his command, and moderates who can't stomach Rosen as their senator. Heller will narrowly hold on.

And obviously you are just keep repeating mindlessly things some self-apppointed "pundit" blabbers.

You did not take the effort looking at the cross tabs of these polls. E G the NYT/Siena poll states that the potential for the DEMs is quite higher. Mrs Rosen seems to be according these pundits less than great recruit. Having a slight advantage at the GSB(generic senatorial Ballot) will translate in the end for her in more votes.
 
But Mr Trump has made this election an Referendum about himself. After the data according to Mr Ralston, the high rural turnout stems from hard core GOP supporters which now will not vote in the GE. Thus seemingly the DEM Advantage in EV/VAM totals seems less dominant. And this matters in Nevada unlike in other places.

In the end, this will result in many independent conservatives stomach a vote against Heller. Not in a great majority, yet decisive in a close election.

[Xing]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

No, Patrick, Nevada is not a "very tough state" for Democrats.

Colorado is not a "very tough state" either.

EDIT: Also, someone needs to inform "expert" John King that Trump did not win Nevada. Apparently he's not aware, lol.

King is 100% right. Heller has successfully made a coalition of trump voters ready to vote in his command, and moderates who can't stomach Rosen as their senator. Heller will narrowly hold on.

Did you miss the part where he said went through every "Toss-Up" state and said "The president won in 2016, the president won in 2016, etc." and then "The president's approval is above 50, the president's approval is above 50, etc." So John King apparently thinks that Trump won Nevada in 2016 and that his approval is about 50% there. Maybe he just misspoke, but it's still a pretty bone-headed mistake to make.

I like the takes of Michigan and Florida going Republican because that's what happened in 2016, but that the same logic is never applied to Nevada.

[All Along The Watchtower]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1058758825300365312

[Woody]

This is not going to age well after the election.

[ON Progressive]

This is not going to age well after the election.

You’re delusional if you think Dean Heller has a chance.

[Xing]

Yeah, some of us have been saying for a while that Heller will lose even if Democrats underperform expectations nationally. While posters should be careful about extrapolating the good results for Democrats in Nevada to other states, it's pretty clear that the "NV is Lean R/Heller will win" posts are the ones that won't age well.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

The polls are always off in Nevada because so many people in Clark County work at night and never get polled. These people are likely 90% Dem too.

[IceSpear]

This is not going to age well after the election.

[IceSpear]

The polls are always off in Nevada because so many people in Clark County work at night and never get polled. These people are likely 90% Dem too.

This is actually an interesting theory. I've never heard it before. Polls aren't the greatest in a handful of states, but Nevada polls have always stood out as being particularly bad.