NV-SEN: Rosen in

[IceSpear]

Rosen is going to win by more than Hillary/Masto did if the Dems do anywhere near as well overall as a lot of people here think they will.

In a world where Dems have any prayer of winning ND/TX/TN, Rosen is winning by at least high single digits.

Yeah, and if (big if) the early voting so far is any indication, I think we could have an exceptionally large polling error in Nevada.

Sen. Angle and Sen. Heck told me that's impossible.

[MT Treasurer]

Even if early voting is not an indication or the numbers improve for Republicans, there is no way Republicans are more likely to hold NV than gain a state like IN or MO, despite what 538's model suggests. Also, "candidate quality" is an incredibly nebulous term and only matters up to a certain point anyway.

[libertpaulian]

The polls all show Heller up, meaning Rosen sucks as a candidate.  Looks like they should have gone with Shelley Berkley...even she would have been a more competent candidate.  His megacoattails might even cause the Rs to pick up a House seat in the state!

[IceSpear]

The polls all show Heller up, meaning Rosen sucks as a candidate.  Looks like they should have gone with Shelley Berkley...even she would have been a more competent candidate.  His megacoattails might even cause the Rs to pick up a House seat in the state!

Only one House seat? Tarkanian and Hardy have this in the bag. Titus better watch her back too. Dirty Daddy Dean's coattails are so long they'll even reach into inner city Las Vegas.

[libertpaulian]

The polls all show Heller up, meaning Rosen sucks as a candidate.  Looks like they should have gone with Shelley Berkley...even she would have been a more competent candidate.  His megacoattails might even cause the Rs to pick up a House seat in the state!

Only one House seat? Tarkanian and Hardy have this in the bag. Titus better watch her back too. Dirty Daddy Dean's coattails are so long they'll even reach into inner city Las Vegas.

We could end up with a unanimous R House delegation in Nevada. 

And inner-city Vegas?!  PFFT.  His megacoattails are so long they'll reach into Arizona and carry McSally to victory, then over to Montana to help Rosendale, then to Minnesota to help the GOP pick up MN-01 and -08, then all the way to Indiana to help Braun! 

[CookieDamage]

The polls all show Heller up, meaning Rosen sucks as a candidate.  Looks like they should have gone with Shelley Berkley...even she would have been a more competent candidate.  His megacoattails might even cause the Rs to pick up a House seat in the state!

Only one House seat? Tarkanian and Hardy have this in the bag. Titus better watch her back too. Dirty Daddy Dean's coattails are so long they'll even reach into inner city Las Vegas.

Las Vegas is a republican city so Titus is DOA.

[JMT]

If early voting gives any indication, it looks like Rosen will win this in the end (which is what I always kinda thought would happen)

[Comrade Funk]

Wacky Jacky will slay the titan.

[IceSpear]

This Politico article though...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/20/trump-rivals-republicans-midterms-919515

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"Moderate?" Really?

[Sir Mohamed]

This Politico article though...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/20/trump-rivals-republicans-midterms-919515

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"Moderate?" Really?

Everyone less extreme than Trump or Moore is considered a moderate today. I remember some folks in the press and on Facebook describing Rubio as moderate during the 2016 primaries. Hilarious!

[UWS]

This Politico article though...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/20/trump-rivals-republicans-midterms-919515

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"Moderate?" Really?

Oh, there’s also the NYT polling writeups where people like Yoder, Paulsen and McSally get called moderates. Basically not finding subtle ways to say the n-word makes you a moderate if you’re a Republican

There is also Carlos Curbelo who is considered as a moderate (especially on immigration and cannabis) and who is breaking from Trump and yet he is leading closely in Florida’s 26th House district.

[DataGuy]

If early voting gives any indication, it looks like Rosen will win this in the end (which is what I always kinda thought would happen)

Thing is, it really doesn't. I'm old enough to remember all the hype over early voting in 2016, when they were saying Clinton had "banked" all these votes in swing states (especially NC) that made her unbeatable no matter what happened on Election Day.

Democrats also started with a big early vote advantage in 2014, which led them to believe they would hold several key Senate seats. In 2010, the Democrats' early vote turnout was so large they were starting to believe there would be no Republican wave at all.

We know what happened. Clinton lost. The Democrats suffered a Senate wipeout in 2014, including in NC and IA, where early voting looked very good. And 2010 was an all-around "shellacking."

It repeats itself over and over again. The final result ends up completely different from the early vote, but people still keep putting stock in it and declaring winners on that basis. I'm not saying that Democrats won't have a good year, but the one thing history ought to teach us is that we can't know anything until all the votes are counted on Election Day.

Anyone who thinks the early vote is in any way predictive should read this article: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html. Note that it was written just before the 2016 election. Six days later, it was proven right yet again, so in hindsight its case is even stronger than it was at the time.

[ON Progressive]

If early voting gives any indication, it looks like Rosen will win this in the end (which is what I always kinda thought would happen)

Thing is, it really doesn't. I'm old enough to remember all the hype over early voting in 2016, when they were saying Clinton had "banked" all these votes in swing states (especially NC) that made her unbeatable no matter what happened on Election Day.

Democrats also started with a big early vote advantage in 2014, which led them to believe they would hold several key Senate seats. In 2010, the Democrats' early vote turnout was so large they were starting to believe there would be no Republican wave at all.

We know what happened. Clinton lost. The Democrats suffered a Senate wipeout in 2014, including in NC and IA, where early voting looked very good. And 2010 was an all-around "shellacking."

It repeats itself over and over again. The final result ends up completely different from the early vote, but people still keep putting stock in it and declaring winners on that basis. I'm not saying that Democrats won't have a good year, but the one thing history ought to teach us is that we can't know anything until all the votes are counted on Election Day.

Anyone who thinks the early vote is in any way predictive should read this article: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html. Note that it was written just before the 2016 election. Six days later, it was proven right yet again, so in hindsight its case is even stronger than it was at the time.

Nevada is the one state where early vote tells us anything though. Early vote let us know that Reid would beat Angle, the GOP would sweep in 2014, Hillary would win in 2016 (despite polling giving Trump the lead), etc.

[IceSpear]

If early voting gives any indication, it looks like Rosen will win this in the end (which is what I always kinda thought would happen)

Thing is, it really doesn't. I'm old enough to remember all the hype over early voting in 2016, when they were saying Clinton had "banked" all these votes in swing states (especially NC) that made her unbeatable no matter what happened on Election Day.

Democrats also started with a big early vote advantage in 2014, which led them to believe they would hold several key Senate seats. In 2010, the Democrats' early vote turnout was so large they were starting to believe there would be no Republican wave at all.

We know what happened. Clinton lost. The Democrats suffered a Senate wipeout in 2014, including in NC and IA, where early voting looked very good. And 2010 was an all-around "shellacking."

It repeats itself over and over again. The final result ends up completely different from the early vote, but people still keep putting stock in it and declaring winners on that basis. I'm not saying that Democrats won't have a good year, but the one thing history ought to teach us is that we can't know anything until all the votes are counted on Election Day.

Anyone who thinks the early vote is in any way predictive should read this article: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html. Note that it was written just before the 2016 election. Six days later, it was proven right yet again, so in hindsight its case is even stronger than it was at the time.

Nevada is the one state where early vote tells us anything though. Early vote let us know that Reid would beat Angle, the GOP would sweep in 2014, Hillary would win in 2016 (despite polling giving Trump the lead), etc.

Yeah, I remember people telling me that having Nevada as likely D in 2016 was ridiculous because of MUH polls (which clearly are more important than actual votes.) I guess history repeats itself.

[Xing]

If early voting gives any indication, it looks like Rosen will win this in the end (which is what I always kinda thought would happen)

Thing is, it really doesn't. I'm old enough to remember all the hype over early voting in 2016, when they were saying Clinton had "banked" all these votes in swing states (especially NC) that made her unbeatable no matter what happened on Election Day.

Democrats also started with a big early vote advantage in 2014, which led them to believe they would hold several key Senate seats. In 2010, the Democrats' early vote turnout was so large they were starting to believe there would be no Republican wave at all.

We know what happened. Clinton lost. The Democrats suffered a Senate wipeout in 2014, including in NC and IA, where early voting looked very good. And 2010 was an all-around "shellacking."

It repeats itself over and over again. The final result ends up completely different from the early vote, but people still keep putting stock in it and declaring winners on that basis. I'm not saying that Democrats won't have a good year, but the one thing history ought to teach us is that we can't know anything until all the votes are counted on Election Day.

Anyone who thinks the early vote is in any way predictive should read this article: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html. Note that it was written just before the 2016 election. Six days later, it was proven right yet again, so in hindsight its case is even stronger than it was at the time.

Nevada is the one state where early vote tells us anything though. Early vote let us know that Reid would beat Angle, the GOP would sweep in 2014, Hillary would win in 2016 (despite polling giving Trump the lead), etc.

Yeah, I remember people telling me that having Nevada as likely D in 2016 was ridiculous because of MUH polls (which clearly are more important than actual votes.) I guess history repeats itself.

Yeah, early voting in Nevada suggested that Democrats were in a very good position, and would probably hold on there even if Election Day went badly for them. As it turns out, Election Day did go horribly for Democrats, but even as rural turnout was high in Nevada, they held on. If you're going to pay attention to early voting in one state, Nevada is a good choice.

[Oryxslayer]

It also helps we have clear benchmarks to measure EV with thanks to Ralston, would most certainly knows what he is talking about.

[Yellowhammer]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

Ralston seems to think that given the early vote in thus far, the race is about even.
How does the partisanship of the Nevada early vote typically match up with ED vote?

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Ralston's blog:

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[Canis]

From Ralston's blog:

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For refrence in 2016 Trump won indies in nv 50-37 and in the senate race Heck won indies 49-39

[henster]

Did 538 really move this to Lean R, lol.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Did 538 really move this to Lean R, lol.

Only in there “light” model which almost all poll based

[IceSpear]

Did 538 really move this to Lean R, lol.

MUH INCUMBENCY

[Bidenworth2020]

this is looking like nv sen 2016 tbh

[OneJ]

How to Win Nevada - Politico

Just posting this since it's dealing with the ongoing race here. It's not necessarily a "Rosen is doomed" article and does mention some truths about the state (e.g. Nevada being a more transient state than normal).

[cg41386]

Did 538 really move this to Lean R, lol.

Only in there “light” model which almost all poll based

It’s in all three now.