France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître

[Zaybay]

Macron might not even win a second term at this point. Would it be Le Front National again in 2022, or would a Left Party go against him(he is really screwing with Unions with his privatization)

This is from an American, BTW, so I dont know the most about French Politics.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Front National (or National Rally as they are known atm) are in a bit of a factional crisis right now. Macron is fortunate enough right now that none of the major non-EM factions look broadly acceptable to the median French voter, meaning even an unpopular Macron would be able to win a run off.

[Kingpoleon]

Front National (or National Rally as they are known atm) are in a bit of a factional crisis right now. Macron is fortunate enough right now that none of the major non-EM factions look broadly acceptable to the median French voter, meaning even an unpopular Macron would be able to win a run off.

NKM could beat him if she could make the runoff.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Front National (or National Rally as they are known atm) are in a bit of a factional crisis right now. Macron is fortunate enough right now that none of the major non-EM factions look broadly acceptable to the median French voter, meaning even an unpopular Macron would be able to win a run off.

NKM could beat him if she could make the runoff.

She got defeated as an last year though, and I'm not really sure she has a viable shot at leading LR for a multitude of reasons. And her niche is basically covered by En Marche itself?

[parochial boy]

She has the flaw of being the most parisian person in the world

Having quit politics probably doesn't help either

[Tirnam]

She has the flaw of being the most parisian person in the world

Having quit politics probably doesn't help either

She was even too Parisian to win in Paris.

[windjammer]

Yes he's in a lot of troubles right now. Let's see if it will remain a major issue. I honestly don't think so.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Every incumbent French President is the presumptive underdog to win reelection. That doesn't mean FBM is toast, of course, but the idea that he's some Unbeatable Titan is ridiculous.

[Tirnam]

We have the first approval rating poll done after the Benalla scandal, from Harris Interactive, with a slight gain for Macron, at 42% (+2 since June).

Ifop will release their poll tonight, we will see if they confirm the Harris poll or not.

[swl]

Following the Benalla affair, the government will face two motions of non-confidence today, one from LR and one from the left. No chance of any of them passing.
At the end of this week the Parliament is going on recess for 3 weeks (and most of the political journalists also), so the govermnent and Macron are hopeful that the scandal will die down.

[DC Al Fine]

Every incumbent French President is the presumptive underdog to win reelection. That doesn't mean FBM is toast, of course, but the idea that he's some Unbeatable Titan is ridiculous.

Who would even be the person who beats him though. Le Pen? There doesn't seem to be an obvious President or Presidential party in waiting like in the old left/right days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Every incumbent French President is the presumptive underdog to win reelection. That doesn't mean FBM is toast, of course, but the idea that he's some Unbeatable Titan is ridiculous.

Who would even be the person who beats him though. Le Pen? There doesn't seem to be an obvious President or Presidential party in waiting like in the old left/right days.

"Who would even be the person who beats him?" is a question that comes up every time. Every time, it eventually finds an answer (that usually isn't one we'd have been able to predict even a year before the election).

[DC Al Fine]

Every incumbent French President is the presumptive underdog to win reelection. That doesn't mean FBM is toast, of course, but the idea that he's some Unbeatable Titan is ridiculous.

Who would even be the person who beats him though. Le Pen? There doesn't seem to be an obvious President or Presidential party in waiting like in the old left/right days.

"Who would even be the person who beats him?" is a question that comes up every time. Every time, it eventually finds an answer (that usually isn't one we'd have been able to predict even a year before the election).

What I am getting at is that until recently, even if we didn't know who the person would be, it was likely that the person who defeated the sitting President would come from whichever of PS and whatever the right was called at the time was out of power. The current alignment makes things more interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Every incumbent French President is the presumptive underdog to win reelection. That doesn't mean FBM is toast, of course, but the idea that he's some Unbeatable Titan is ridiculous.

Who would even be the person who beats him though. Le Pen? There doesn't seem to be an obvious President or Presidential party in waiting like in the old left/right days.

"Who would even be the person who beats him?" is a question that comes up every time. Every time, it eventually finds an answer (that usually isn't one we'd have been able to predict even a year before the election).

What I am getting at is that until recently, even if we didn't know who the person would be, it was likely that the person who defeated the sitting President would come from whichever of PS and whatever the right was called at the time was out of power. The current alignment makes things more interesting.

That it does, yeah. There sure is no way to predict who it will be, but I'm confident that there will be a credible challenger whoever it may be.

[parochial boy]

So Hulot has resigned out of disappointment with Macron's (lack of) engagement on environmental issues; and the flawless one's approval rating has continued to drop down to 34%

Very good, carry on

[windjammer]

So Hulot has resigned out of disappointment with Macron's (lack of) engagement on environmental issues; and the flawless one's approval rating has continued to drop down to 34%

Very good, carry on

More and more French are realizing he's a fraud.

[EPG]

Hulot resigned over French hunting, which is totally environmentally irrelevant.

[Zinneke]

Hulot resigned over French hunting, which is totally environmentally irrelevant.

Its not just that, he listed a whole bunch of stuff he was unhappy with. This resignation was in the works since the moment he entered office, its just that the timing of it means there is now an irrelevant debate over hunting as if that was the only thing Hulot listed as being a major problem.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Neoliberal bankers don't do much to help the environment? Who knew?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, good on him for finally realized FBM doesn't give a sh*t about the environment. Took him long enough though, since it was obvious from day 1.

[Santander]

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1035433733057327104?s=19

  Macron!!! Best world leader atm!

[windjammer]

^^
He's less popular than Trump ......

Approval ratings:
Trump 45%
Macron 32%
Merkel 22%
May 22%



At least he has higher approval rating than Theresa May and Merkel

I mean, he alienates the left, he alienates the right so...

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1035433733057327104?s=19

"Beginning"?

[Mr. Smith]

^^
He's less popular than Trump ......

Approval ratings:
Trump 45%
Macron 32%
Merkel 22%
May 22%



At least he has higher approval rating than Theresa May and Merkel

I wonder where Trudeau fits onto that.

[swl]

IFOP poll about French-US relations, seen in the Figaro, full poll here: https://www.youscribe.com/BookReader/Index/2980304?documentId=3312816

A few results:


Is the following country a reliable ally/partner:
Germany:89% yes 11% no
UK: 61% yes 39%no
US: 44% yes 56% no
India: 41% yes 59% no
China: 32% yes 68% no
Russia: 22% yes 78% no


Do you approve of US policy in general: 20% yes 80% no


On the following topics, are the US an ally of France or an opponent:
to fight islamic terrorism: 74% ally 26% opponent
to face Russia: 51% ally 49% opponent
to face Chine: 51% ally 49% opponent
for safety of NATO members: 50% ally 50% opponent
for French economic growth: 22% ally 78% opponent
for European economic growth: 19% ally 81% opponent
to fight climate change: 12% ally 88% opponent


Do you have a good opinion of Donald Trump:
17% yes 83% no


Do you think most US citizens are like Donald Trump:
25% yes 75% no


Do you think it's important to keep a good relation between the US and Europe:
82% yes 18% no


Do you feel friendship for US people:
79% yes 21% no