Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?
To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).
I see. What about the questions I posed?
Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.
There is a clearer version of the map here:
And I used their maps because I thought that such a scenario would be relatively reasonable.
I think this is a plausible map for a 60-40 Democratic popular vote win, or about there... if you're using 2008 as a starting point.
I have a few more technical questions. Would Democrats win the white vote in this scenario? Would they come close? And I am guessing I would correct in saying that Republicans still carry the majority of counties.
Democrats would likely not win the white vote, but it would be closer than it's been since 1996. As for counties, it doesn't look like the Democratic nominee wins a majority, but again they'd come closer than they have since 1996.
That would seem reasonable. It's amazing that a 60-40 victory would produce such a map now, whereas thirty, forty, or fifty years ago, it would have been an absolute rout
