How Possible is this Map for the 2020 Election?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Not possible in the slightest. Your map would make more sense pre-1960s with a strong and populist southern Dem on a ticket with a liberal Dem vp from the NE.

That's because at least half of it is literally just the 1964 map. You can look here. http://geoelections.free.fr/USA/comtes/1964.png. Nebraska, South Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maryland, Montana, Utah, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Minnesota are all exactly the same.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Not possible in the slightest. Your map would make more sense pre-1960s with a strong and populist southern Dem on a ticket with a liberal Dem vp from the NE.

Then what is possible. Assuming that Trump's approval ratings sunk down to Bush or Truman levels, how much of a victory margin could there be?

It might be a 60-40 map, but it wouldn't look remotely like that.

[Calthrina950]

Not possible in the slightest. Your map would make more sense pre-1960s with a strong and populist southern Dem on a ticket with a liberal Dem vp from the NE.

Then what is possible. Assuming that Trump's approval ratings sunk down to Bush or Truman levels, how much of a victory margin could there be?

It might be a 60-40 map, but it wouldn't look remotely like that.

How would it look? Where could I find the information so that I could assemble such a map?

[SoLongAtlas]

Not possible in the slightest. Your map would make more sense pre-1960s with a strong and populist southern Dem on a ticket with a liberal Dem vp from the NE.

Then what is possible. Assuming that Trump's approval ratings sunk down to Bush or Truman levels, how much of a victory margin could there be?

It might be a 60-40 map, but it wouldn't look remotely like that.

How would it look? Where could I find the information so that I could assemble such a map?

Here's a baseline 2016 result map on wiki https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3f/United_States_presidential_election_results_by_county%2C_2016.svg/1280px-United_States_presidential_election_results_by_county%2C_2016.svg.png

You can edit the colors in paint or pixlr, etc. The key in 2020 will be suburb improvement with Dems, and flipping MI, WI, PA (upper MW) and NC, FL, maybe GA (South), and Ohio (central north). Focus on counties with high pop count or suburban counties with electorates that would trend Dem or have a lot of indy voters. Rural counties, unless won in bulk don't amount to enough to flip a purple state unless you max them out like Trump did white WWC and it remains to be seen how attached they will be to him in 2020.

This will help https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_statistics_of_the_United_States as well as this site with cartograms, etc http://metrocosm.com/election-2016-map-3d/

[Calthrina950]

I've come up with a hypothetical map, based upon turning the lighter Trump (lower victory margin) counties Democratic. Ignore the various shadings:



Which states would the Democrats win? Which would be close? Which would not? Is this somewhat more realistic?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I've come up with a hypothetical map, based upon turning the lighter Trump (lower victory margin) counties Democratic. Ignore the various shadings:



Which states would the Democrats win? Which would be close? Which would not? Is this somewhat more realistic?

Everything but Wyoming and West Virginia.

[Calthrina950]

I've come up with a hypothetical map, based upon turning the lighter Trump (lower victory margin) counties Democratic. Ignore the various shadings:



Which states would the Democrats win? Which would be close? Which would not? Is this somewhat more realistic?

Everything but Wyoming and West Virginia.

Would this be a 60-40 national margin in favor of the Democrats?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I've come up with a hypothetical map, based upon turning the lighter Trump (lower victory margin) counties Democratic. Ignore the various shadings:



Which states would the Democrats win? Which would be close? Which would not? Is this somewhat more realistic?

Everything but Wyoming and West Virginia.

Would this be a 60-40 national margin in favor of the Democrats?

More like 65-35.

[SoLongAtlas]

Still needs a little work but better for the goal of 60-40. The problem is that a lot of counties (read rural here) you shaded in blue won't vote for a Democrat under any circumstances, esp in the Deep South (and here it won't work even if you max out the black belt counties).

What I would do here to make it more "realistic" (in terms of predictions) is try to give 10 or so more percent to the baseline in counties surrounding cities and in counties trending blue or have a lot of indy registration. Having lived both in central VA and NoVA, for example, you just have to realize that Dems will not win in certain areas even if they ran with Jesus as the nominee to appeal to the right wing (most of the right wing would think it was a Mexican guy). Polarization is just too strong. Last Oct/Nov, I saw many houses in counties that you colored in blue with confederate flags and at least 5 Trump signs to the point where you couldn't even make out the front yard. My point here is that unless you have boots on, to use a mil phrase, in these areas and get a feeling of what is going on in those counties, you can't really do an accurate prediction analysis (that is what doomed Hillary), but not really making this that big of a deal since this isn't for polling, CNN, etc.

[SoLongAtlas]

Ok, here is a 2012-2016 comparison map I made to help out with a 2020 prediction.  
You can use that to get a visual reference on the swing/trend counties.

Note, even with Obama in 2012, he didn't max out counties that you have in your 60-40 map. He got 51.1%. So even with a relatively scandal free Romney (and he had his share of hits), polarization didn't allow for a 60-40 map. It may next time up but I doubt it breaks 55%.

[Calthrina950]

Ok, here is a 2012-2016 comparison map I made to help out with a 2020 prediction.  
You can use that to get a visual reference on the swing/trend counties.

Note, even with Obama in 2012, he didn't max out counties that you have in your 60-40 map. He got 51.1%. So even with a relatively scandal free Romney (and he had his share of hits), polarization didn't allow for a 60-40 map. It may next time up but I doubt it breaks 55%.

I see. So I guess a Democratic victory, even with that large of a margin, would still have the geographic majority of the country shaded in Republican. That does show how polarized the country is.  So I guess that the best strategy would be to focus only on the counties where Trump's margin of victory was within the 1-5 point range.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If you're going for a reasonable 7-8% Democratic victory, I would give the Democrat every county where Trump got less than 50% of the vote (save for a couple in Utah where Clinton lost by 20%+ but McMullin kept Trump below 50%) as well as every county that Trump won by less than 8%, PLUS some other counties that are swingy or went for Obama in 2012, but weren't within 7-8% this time around. if you want to be really realistic I think you could flip a few counties that Trump won by 15-20% as well, as I don't believe in uniform swings and I think some counties (such as Davis in Utah) could flip if Trump is still so unpopular in 2020, despite them not being that relatively close in 2016.

[Calthrina950]

I have a map in progress of what I have done thus far, incorporating suggestions:


Does this map seem reasonable? As far as I can tell, Wyoming and Oklahoma, at the least, would remain Republican, and I think Alabama and Mississippi as well. I intend for West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee to definitely remain Republican. Which others would also be, based upon this map?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Your latest map seems reasonable to me, but why is the quality still so low? I can't make out most of the map.

[LLR]

How would Iowa be a near-sweep? For example, Pocahontas and Sac Counties voted 70% Trump and yet you have them going blue. And all of Appalachian Ohio, with many 75% Trump counties included, flips back to the Democrats? Sorry, the swing will not be nearly that massive...

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I have a map in progress of what I have done thus far, incorporating suggestions:


Does this map seem reasonable? As far as I can tell, Wyoming and Oklahoma, at the least, would remain Republican, and I think Alabama and Mississippi as well. I intend for West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee to definitely remain Republican. Which others would also be, based upon this map?

NE At-L and 3rd, SD, Idaho and North Dakota.

[Calthrina950]

How would Iowa be a near-sweep? For example, Pocahontas and Sac Counties voted 70% Trump and yet you have them going blue. And all of Appalachian Ohio, with many 75% Trump counties included, flips back to the Democrats? Sorry, the swing will not be nearly that massive...

I based the Iowa map off Tom Harkin's victory map in 2008, and the Ohio map off Sherrod Brown's map in 2006. I am trying to make this the best worst-case scenario that I can devise, while leaving things at least somewhat reasonable.

[Calthrina950]

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?

To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

[Calthrina950]

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?

To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?

To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?

Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.

[Calthrina950]

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?

To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?

Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.

There is a clearer version of the map here: https://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/novelas/images/4/43/Map_of_Hypothetical_Election.png/revision/latest?cb=20170623031829

And I used their maps because I thought that such a scenario would be relatively reasonable.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?

To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?

Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.

There is a clearer version of the map here:

And I used their maps because I thought that such a scenario would be relatively reasonable.

I think this is a plausible map for a 60-40 Democratic popular vote win, or about there... if you're using 2008 as a starting point.  

[Calthrina950]

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?

To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?

Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.

There is a clearer version of the map here:

And I used their maps because I thought that such a scenario would be relatively reasonable.

I think this is a plausible map for a 60-40 Democratic popular vote win, or about there... if you're using 2008 as a starting point.  

I have a few more technical questions. Would Democrats win the white vote in this scenario? Would they come close? And I am guessing I would correct in saying that Republicans still carry the majority of counties.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?

To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?

Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.

There is a clearer version of the map here:

And I used their maps because I thought that such a scenario would be relatively reasonable.

I think this is a plausible map for a 60-40 Democratic popular vote win, or about there... if you're using 2008 as a starting point.  

I have a few more technical questions. Would Democrats win the white vote in this scenario? Would they come close? And I am guessing I would correct in saying that Republicans still carry the majority of counties.

Democrats would likely not win the white vote, but it would be closer than it's been since 1996. As for counties, it doesn't look like the Democratic nominee wins a majority, but again they'd come closer than they have since 1996.