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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  VA-Harper Polling (R): Tied race
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Author Topic: VA-Harper Polling (R): Tied race  (Read 1918 times)
heatcharger
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« on: June 16, 2017, 02:33:15 pm »

http://harperpolling.com/polls/virginia-governor-general-election-poll-29364866

Northam 46%
Gillespie 46%
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Skunk
hynza
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« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2017, 02:34:08 pm »

Gillespie winning independents? Yeah okay.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2017, 03:01:16 pm »

Gillespie winning independents? Yeah okay.

If he wins the race, he'll obviously win independents.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2017, 03:06:42 pm »

Let's see a couple polls from other pollsters first, until then I'm keeping this race at Tilt D. 
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Skunk
hynza
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2017, 03:07:55 pm »

If he wins the race, he'll obviously win independents.

Well yeah, that's a given. I'm saying I doubt he wins or wins independents, especially after that showing in the primary.
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Pollster
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2017, 05:37:58 pm »

Very hard to see Gillespie winning statewide in a Trump off-year in a state Trump lost by more than Romney, especially considering how much the state's Trump voters seemed to clearly and unexpectedly reject Gillespie's candidacy.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2017, 05:58:39 pm »

Very hard to see Gillespie winning statewide in a Trump off-year in a state Trump lost by more than Romney, especially considering how much the state's Trump voters seemed to clearly and unexpectedly reject Gillespie's candidacy.

Just because they're rejecting it now doesn't mean they won't eventually vote for it.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2017, 06:11:42 pm »

Very hard to see Gillespie winning statewide in a Trump off-year in a state Trump lost by more than Romney, especially considering how much the state's Trump voters seemed to clearly and unexpectedly reject Gillespie's candidacy.

Just because they're rejecting it now doesn't mean they won't eventually vote for it.

They'd prefer a hard right moron like Stewart, but they'll vote for Gillespie compared to Northam.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2017, 06:26:31 pm »

Very hard to see Gillespie winning statewide in a Trump off-year in a state Trump lost by more than Romney, especially considering how much the state's Trump voters seemed to clearly and unexpectedly reject Gillespie's candidacy.

Just because they're rejecting it now doesn't mean they won't eventually vote for it.

They'd prefer a hard right moron like Stewart, but they'll vote for Gillespie compared to Northam.
They'll probably come around to voting for Gillespie. Either that, or they won't vote at all.

Also, polls just after the primary is over are notoriously bad. But Democrats will underestimate Gillespie at their own risk. Nearly upsetting Mark Warner was a wake-up call for VA Dems, and they should be more wary of him this time, even though this may be an anti-GOP environment.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2017, 06:36:07 pm »

Very hard to see Gillespie winning statewide in a Trump off-year in a state Trump lost by more than Romney, especially considering how much the state's Trump voters seemed to clearly and unexpectedly reject Gillespie's candidacy.

Just because they're rejecting it now doesn't mean they won't eventually vote for it.

They'd prefer a hard right moron like Stewart, but they'll vote for Gillespie compared to Northam.
They'll probably come around to voting for Gillespie. Either that, or they won't vote at all.

Also, polls just after the primary is over are notoriously bad. But Democrats will underestimate Gillespie at their own risk. Nearly upsetting Mark Warner was a wake-up call for VA Dems, and they should be more wary of him this time, even though this may be an anti-GOP environment.

It may be an anti-GOP environment compared to 2014, but Gillespie got nearly no resources that year, it'll be far different this time.  The Governor's association will put a good amount of money in this race, Gillespie most certainly will have support from the national GOP, and Northam might have tacked a bit too far to the left and that will hurt him.  Tilt D for now but I expect this race to move back to toss up before November 7th.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2017, 07:09:57 pm »

Great poll!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: June 16, 2017, 08:55:33 pm »

lol yeah right.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #12 on: June 16, 2017, 09:06:21 pm »

Dems do have the lead in this race but I do see it coming down to close contest.  Terry McAuliffe did win a nail biter, too.  Election day is still 6 months off.
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Skye
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« Reply #13 on: June 17, 2017, 08:22:31 am »

Gillespie is getting 31% of African Americans in this poll, just FYI.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: June 17, 2017, 11:40:42 am »

Gillespie is getting 31% of African Americans in this poll, just FYI.

lol wut
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #15 on: June 17, 2017, 12:00:18 pm »

It would be my luck that the year I vote Dem at the top of the ticket, they lose.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #16 on: June 17, 2017, 02:32:05 pm »

Gillespie will lose bigly. Making that prediction now.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #17 on: June 17, 2017, 04:24:22 pm »

Congrats Democrats for nominating the Hillary Clinton of Virginia.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2017, 04:27:17 pm »

Congrats Democrats for nominating the Hillary Clinton of Virginia.

lol.

This is a Republican poll and Clinton won VA easily. I myself supported Periello, but Northam should clean up fine.
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shua
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« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2017, 05:42:23 pm »

Tried to read the crosstabs, but couldn't figure out what was going on.  This is a very strange poll.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2017, 06:02:39 pm »

I give it 51-49 Democratic advantage
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2017, 10:51:20 pm »

Congrats Democrats for nominating the Hillary Clinton of Virginia.

lol.

This is a Republican poll and Clinton won VA easily. I myself supported Periello, but Northam should clean up fine.

Big whoop she beat the clown by more than 4 in Virginia. Not that impressive.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2017, 11:52:23 pm »

Congrats Democrats for nominating the Hillary Clinton of Virginia.

A 5 point win would be great!
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UncleSam
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« Reply #23 on: June 18, 2017, 01:37:08 am »

The top line only includes those who say they are 'certain' to vote. Northam easily wins those who are merely 'highly likely' or 'somewhat likely'to vote by between 10-15 points.

Always look at cross tabs and never at the top line kids, lol
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InheritTheWind
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« Reply #24 on: June 18, 2017, 11:49:06 am »

Congrats Democrats for nominating the Hillary Clinton of Virginia.

lol.

This is a Republican poll and Clinton won VA easily. I myself supported Periello, but Northam should clean up fine.

Big whoop she beat the clown by more than 4 in Virginia. Not that impressive.

I'm sure Bernie would've beaten Trump by 70.
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